Playoff Analysis, Centered on Alabama Chances

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AutzenMember
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Playoff Analysis, Centered on Alabama Chances

Post by AutzenMember »

Paul Not-So-Finebaum is publicly selling the argument that Alabama should get in over Ohio State if Auburn were to win the SEC and Ohio State should beat Wisconsin by only a small margin. He even hints at Alabama over undefeated Wisconsin if Ohio State should lose that game in a close score. I did my own research to see how Alabama gets in. In my opinion, the only way they get in under the current system (without tampering, of course) is if TCU beats Oklahoma.

Assuming the current top 4 all win, they are undoubtedly in since they all have conference championships in hand and have bolstered their strength of schedule in the process. So, there needn't be a comparison there.

Assuming Georgia beats Auburn in the SEC, Georgia is certainly in over Alabama, replacing Auburn in the top 4. In this scenario, Alabama's stock drops due to Auburn's record taking a hit. So, no comparison there.

So, this gives us comparisons of Miami and Ohio State, should those two pull upsets in their conference games.

Alabama
Opponents record (Assuming Auburn and Fresno State both win): 81-62 (56.6%)
Best Wins: Fresno State 10-3 MW Champion, who lost to 5-7 UNLV (if they lose to Boise State, then Alabama takes a big hit); LSU 9-3, who lost to Troy
Loss: @Auburn 11-2 SEC Champion (again, if Auburn loses, Alabama takes a BIG hit)
CCG: NA

Miami
Opponents record: 80-62 (56.3%)
Best Wins: Clemson 11-2 in ACC Championship; Virginia Tech 9-3; Notre Dame 9-3
Loss: @Pitt 5-7
CCG: ACC Winner

Ohio State
Opponents record: 90-67 (57.3%)
Best Wins: Wisconsin 12-1 in Big10 Championship; Penn State 10-2; Michigan State 9-3
Losses: Oklahoma 12-1 Big12 Champion; @Iowa 7-5
CCG: Big10 Winner

From a resume standpoint, I believe both Miami and Ohio State have Alabama beat. Alabama only wins the "Best Loss" argument, but loses everywhere else, with the conference champion argument playing against them. So, to restate, IMO, Alabama only gets in if Oklahoma were to lose (without tampering, of course). If this happens, it's the best shot we have to get to an 8-team system, since the whole world will fall apart if Alabama doesn't get in this year.
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Re: Playoff Analysis, Centered on Alabama Chances

Post by FlDuckFan »

Per Saban , a team shouldn't be in the playoff if they didn't win their conference
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