Alabama vs Georgia:
This game appears to be a simple solution, an Alabama win and they're in and seeded #1. A Georgia win would likely vault them to #2 and drop Alabama to #3 or #4. Either way, unless they're completely dominated today, Alabama is almost a lock, win or lose.
At least 2, likely 3, of the Top-4 are set.
Here's where the chaos could happen.
There are only a few teams that are either unbeaten or 1 loss. Those are Georgia (we've already looked at their game), Oklahoma, Ohio State and UCF.
Clemson vs Pitt:
This is where the potential for chaos begins. Clemson should almost certainly win. However, we've seen upsets before. Would a 12-1 Clemson team still get the nod over a potential Oklahoma or Ohio State, both 12-1, assuming they win their CG games today? Hmmm...
What would happen if:
Oklahoma vs Texas:
Oklahoma lost to Texas again? They'd almost certainly be eliminated. They'd have lost to a ranked team twice (the same team) and wouldn't even be a conference champion.
Ohio State vs Northwestern:
Ohio State lost to Northwestern? Hey, as good as the Buckeyes looked last week against Michigan, they were also routed by a 6-6 Purdue team earlier in the year.
UCF vs Memphis:
UCF would certainly be out if they lose to Memphis today, but what if they win? Would the selection committee take an undefeated UCF over 2 loss teams from other major conferences or would the committee disregard them and select from Ohio State or Georgia?
Note: I disqualified Oklahoma because of 2 potential losses to Texas. I also disqualified 2 loss Michigan because they were recently routed by Ohio State.
In a perfect world, everything will go as expected and none of this will play out. But if it were to happen, one of two things would happen that have never happened before in the College Football Playoff era; a 2 loss team would reach the semifinals for the first time OR a Mid-Major would make it for the first time.
Buckle up, folks. Today could not only end chaotic, but also be historic. Get your popcorn ready!
I love college football.
1. Alabama 12-0
2. Clemson 12-0
3. Notre Dame 12-0
4. Georgia 11-1
5. Oklahoma 11-1
6. Ohio State 11-1
7. Michigan 10-2
8. UCF 11-0
9. Florida 9-3
10. LSU 9-3
