NDSU/OREGON 2020

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NomadBison
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by NomadBison »

I do believe we have more than a 5% chance of winning but can’t say I’ve heard anyone say anything about Oregon being a finesse team. I would think of NDSU as an B1G team though more so than just an FCS team. I’m not expecting a win by any means but I wouldn’t rule it out completely. I do think your fans will be impressed with our in the field performance. Sorry about the shitty posters on here.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by UOducksTK1 »

A new OL and a new QB will give the Bison a chance.

Not to mention we got tOSU the next week. Could see Oregon overlooking this game, and our offense struggling a little.

But our D should be pretty solid. And home field advantage is an extra bonus.

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GoDucksTroll »

I wandered on over to Bisonville and it appears that the early arrivals here from the NDSU fan base were grade-A known trolls. I'd say 50-60% of their posters are reasonable, and the rest delusional. Some of our Ducks have started posting there, and are thankfully being respectful. If you're on of those Duck fans I hope you keep it classy, but the dregs of our twitter fans will probably join in eventually.

For some reason they keep comparing us to their Iowa win. Not realizing the talent disparity we have with a team like Iowa.

2016 Iowa roster: four 4-stars. Four year recruiting rank AVG: 55th.

2020 Oregon roster: four 5-stars, ~39 4-stars. Four rear recruiting rank AVG: 12.75.

Most of their posters seem to brush off recruiting ratings. I can't blame them, they rank in the 130-140s in those while we're in striking distance of a top-10 average. Comparing Oregon to average Iowa team or a down K-State team... I just can't fathom that. To be fair some of their posters understand the difference:

"Exactly. Iowa isn't getting the top players in the country at some positions like Oregon can. Especially when they can almost have the pick of the crop up and down the entire west coast. Iowa isn't getting those players. theyre getting good players that can develop into solid NFL players. but Oregons going to have freak college players to whom NDSU has never seen before."

Them calling Oregon finesse shows that they haven't seen an Oregon game for quite some time. It also seems to be a common theme that they're convinced Oregon will look overlook them because we have Ohio State the next week. Because I'm sure our coaching staff doesn't know who they are.

I was looking forward to this one because NDSU is better than most G-5 teams, but after reading through their fans arrogance and delusion I hope we give them a stomping. We won't because we'll be resting up for an actual quality opponent, but I can't wait for that rude awakening. Their QB Trey Lance was fun to watch in the DII national championship or whatever they call it, and had an impressive 28 TD and no INT season - but man, wait until he meets Jordon Scott or Kayvon Thibodeaux.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by OregonFan4Life »

NomadBison wrote:I do believe we have more than a 5% chance of winning but can’t say I’ve heard anyone say anything about Oregon being a finesse team. I would think of NDSU as an B1G team though more so than just an FCS team. I’m not expecting a win by any means but I wouldn’t rule it out completely. I do think your fans will be impressed with our in the field performance. Sorry about the shitty posters on here.
I've seen it on Twitter too, NDSU fans talking about how they'll show Oregon smash mouth big boy football, and it's even on this forum for you to see yourself. Most of us duck fans respect NDSU, it's impressive what they've done. I was looking forward to this game cause it'll be a quality game against an FCS opponent, not your typical boring beatdown like against PSU. Plus with OSU the following week there is the chance of Oregon not taking this game seriously. But your fans have been so disrespectful to Oregon, to even compare Oregon to that Iowa team is disrespectful to the team and players. I get you want to be confident and hopeful, but that has turned to complete arrogance for a lot of NDSU fans. So don't be surprised that a lot of us duck fans don't respect NDSU anymore as a result of your obnoxious fans, it's only natural. I do feel for a reasonable fan like you on here.
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NomadBison
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by NomadBison »

The Iowa game is the only real team we can compare Oregon to though. They were the best team that we had played until the Ducks next September. I’m not trying to make excuses for some Bison fans being the way they are but we are still handicapped at having 22 less scholarship kids, we are a developmental program, Iowa was number 11/13 in the country at the time and held them to under 50 yds rushing. Yes it took a last second field goal to win but that was not our best team and we didn’t win the title that year. After all that is said it was still 4 years ago and both teams (NDSU, Oregon) have changed since for the better and those past results will have no bearing on how our game will go this fall.

Football talk: Our QB Trey Lance is the real deal and will be a RSo this season. He’s big, fast and strong. Has a great arm and is relatively accurate even though he is still developing. Possess some great pocket awareness and can be elusive. Our RB room runs about 5 deep and all will get playing time. Also returning what many would consider our best back from last years ACL injury so we’ll see how he’s doing this spring. Return two 6’6” TE that played a lot last year. We also return 4 of our 5 starting OL that average 6’5” 317 ish. LT Radunz will be I interesting to watch with Thibodeaux. WR Watson and Sproles will be our best guys in that position.

NDSU Offensive guys to Jeep an eye on: QB Trey Lance, RB Seth Wilson, TE Noah Gindorf, LT Dillon Radunz and WR Christian Watson.

On defense we took a hit at DE and to some extent DT so I’m not sure quite what to think there but we do have some great young guys. LB will be a strength with Cox, Hankey and Mercado all returning starters. One returning starter in Josh Hayes at CB. Michael Tutsie is our returning starter at S.

Defensive guys to keep an eye on: OLB Jabril Cox!!! DE Spencer Waege, DT Lane Tucker, CB Hayes and S Tutsie. We do run 2-3 deep at most positions so we do have quality depth. Scheme and being assignment sound are two of the big reasons for NDSU success. I am optimistic about the game but just want to see how we look on the field against a team like Oregon in Autzen Stadium.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GoDucksTroll »

NomadBison wrote:The Iowa game is the only real team we can compare Oregon to though. They were the best team that we had played until the Ducks next September. I’m not trying to make excuses for some Bison fans being the way they are but we are still handicapped at having 22 less scholarship kids, we are a developmental program, Iowa was number 11/13 in the country at the time and held them to under 50 yds rushing. Yes it took a last second field goal to win but that was not our best team and we didn’t win the title that year. After all that is said it was still 4 years ago and both teams (NDSU, Oregon) have changed since for the better and those past results will have no bearing on how our game will go this fall.

Football talk: Our QB Trey Lance is the real deal and will be a RSo this season. He’s big, fast and strong. Has a great arm and is relatively accurate even though he is still developing. Possess some great pocket awareness and can be elusive. Our RB room runs about 5 deep and all will get playing time. Also returning what many would consider our best back from last years ACL injury so we’ll see how he’s doing this spring. Return two 6’6” TE that played a lot last year. We also return 4 of our 5 starting OL that average 6’5” 317 ish. LT Radunz will be I interesting to watch with Thibodeaux. WR Watson and Sproles will be our best guys in that position.

NDSU Offensive guys to Jeep an eye on: QB Trey Lance, RB Seth Wilson, TE Noah Gindorf, LT Dillon Radunz and WR Christian Watson.

On defense we took a hit at DE and to some extent DT so I’m not sure quite what to think there but we do have some great young guys. LB will be a strength with Cox, Hankey and Mercado all returning starters. One returning starter in Josh Hayes at CB. Michael Tutsie is our returning starter at S.

Defensive guys to keep an eye on: OLB Jabril Cox!!! DE Spencer Waege, DT Lane Tucker, CB Hayes and S Tutsie. We do run 2-3 deep at most positions so we do have quality depth. Scheme and being assignment sound are two of the big reasons for NDSU success. I am optimistic about the game but just want to see how we look on the field against a team like Oregon in Autzen Stadium.
Thank you for the healthy back-and-forth, Nomad. This board isn't as big/active as some of the other ones, but it's been around for quite some time and some of the people covering Oregon/recruiting started posting here before their current gigs. We're usually pretty civil here.

I appreciate the breakdown. I watched the game against JMU this season, and I watched some NDSU highlights the other day. It's still a long way out and I'll be wanting to learn more because the football withdrawals will be so strong.

I am enjoying following the discussion over on Bisonville. And all of us appreciate what NDSU has been able to do at a lower level and in opportunities against some P-5 schools. I didn't expect your fans to admit near certain defeat seven months before the game was played. I am blown away by the combination of arrogance and ignorance I'm reading in some of those posts.

I'm sure our more uncouth fans will bring more arrogance with them, so I hope we don't make too bad of an impression. It just seems like NDSU is thinking they're on equal footing here, when the reality is this would be the biggest upset in college football since App State beat Michigan in 2007.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by NomadBison »

Not a problem and I like talking football. I don’t know about being on an equal footing even though some may think we are but would definitely consider us more than just some FCS team is all. I do feel Oregon and it’s fans will be very impressed with the squad that NDSU will trot out on the field.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by wepto »

GoDucksTroll wrote:
NomadBison wrote:The Iowa game is the only real team we can compare Oregon to though. They were the best team that we had played until the Ducks next September. I’m not trying to make excuses for some Bison fans being the way they are but we are still handicapped at having 22 less scholarship kids, we are a developmental program, Iowa was number 11/13 in the country at the time and held them to under 50 yds rushing. Yes it took a last second field goal to win but that was not our best team and we didn’t win the title that year. After all that is said it was still 4 years ago and both teams (NDSU, Oregon) have changed since for the better and those past results will have no bearing on how our game will go this fall.

Football talk: Our QB Trey Lance is the real deal and will be a RSo this season. He’s big, fast and strong. Has a great arm and is relatively accurate even though he is still developing. Possess some great pocket awareness and can be elusive. Our RB room runs about 5 deep and all will get playing time. Also returning what many would consider our best back from last years ACL injury so we’ll see how he’s doing this spring. Return two 6’6” TE that played a lot last year. We also return 4 of our 5 starting OL that average 6’5” 317 ish. LT Radunz will be I interesting to watch with Thibodeaux. WR Watson and Sproles will be our best guys in that position.

NDSU Offensive guys to Jeep an eye on: QB Trey Lance, RB Seth Wilson, TE Noah Gindorf, LT Dillon Radunz and WR Christian Watson.

On defense we took a hit at DE and to some extent DT so I’m not sure quite what to think there but we do have some great young guys. LB will be a strength with Cox, Hankey and Mercado all returning starters. One returning starter in Josh Hayes at CB. Michael Tutsie is our returning starter at S.

Defensive guys to keep an eye on: OLB Jabril Cox!!! DE Spencer Waege, DT Lane Tucker, CB Hayes and S Tutsie. We do run 2-3 deep at most positions so we do have quality depth. Scheme and being assignment sound are two of the big reasons for NDSU success. I am optimistic about the game but just want to see how we look on the field against a team like Oregon in Autzen Stadium.
Thank you for the healthy back-and-forth, Nomad. This board isn't as big/active as some of the other ones, but it's been around for quite some time and some of the people covering Oregon/recruiting started posting here before their current gigs. We're usually pretty civil here.

I appreciate the breakdown. I watched the game against JMU this season, and I watched some NDSU highlights the other day. It's still a long way out and I'll be wanting to learn more because the football withdrawals will be so strong.

I am enjoying following the discussion over on Bisonville. And all of us appreciate what NDSU has been able to do at a lower level and in opportunities against some P-5 schools. I didn't expect your fans to admit near certain defeat seven months before the game was played. I am blown away by the combination of arrogance and ignorance I'm reading in some of those posts.

I'm sure our more uncouth fans will bring more arrogance with them, so I hope we don't make too bad of an impression. It just seems like NDSU is thinking they're on equal footing here, when the reality is this would be the biggest upset in college football since App State beat Michigan in 2007.
I think that's underselling NDSU a bit. I'd take 2019 NDSU as a straight up favorite over 2019 Stanford or Arizona. Oregon State and Cal (while Garbers was out) would also have a lot of trouble. They have shown that they can consistently beat mid/lower tier P5 teams. Ducks are still a solid favorite--but it's more like an 85/15% game than a 99/1% game.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

wepto wrote:I think that's underselling NDSU a bit. I'd take 2019 NDSU as a straight up favorite over 2019 Stanford or Arizona. Oregon State and Cal (while Garbers was out) would also have a lot of trouble. They have shown that they can consistently beat mid/lower tier P5 teams. Ducks are still a solid favorite--but it's more like an 85/15% game than a 99/1% game.
Absolutely closer to a 85/15% probability split. Massey's computer algorithm shows the 2019 teams as an 80/20% probability split. Though regardless of the computed probabilities, I think an NDSU win would still be seen by many as comparable or bigger than the Michigan vs App State upset.

I still think that the game will look a lot like the Rose Bowl game against Wisconsin. I expect NDSU to get up for this game and play above their potential a bit to the point that instead of looking like a #25 to #30-ish team in the country that they probably are next year, they'll look like a #15-ish team in the country for this game. Anytime you get a top-10 against a #15-ish team, it has a chance to be a good one.

I may leave Autzen with my expectations dashed, but I'd be okay with that too. It will still be a fun opportunity to see the Bison play a legitimate top-10 team in the country.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ncduck »

thebootfitter wrote:
wepto wrote:I think that's underselling NDSU a bit. I'd take 2019 NDSU as a straight up favorite over 2019 Stanford or Arizona. Oregon State and Cal (while Garbers was out) would also have a lot of trouble. They have shown that they can consistently beat mid/lower tier P5 teams. Ducks are still a solid favorite--but it's more like an 85/15% game than a 99/1% game.
Absolutely closer to a 85/15% probability split. Massey's computer algorithm shows the 2019 teams as an 80/20% probability split. Though regardless of the computed probabilities, I think an NDSU win would still be seen by many as comparable or bigger than the Michigan vs App State upset.

I still think that the game will look a lot like the Rose Bowl game against Wisconsin. I expect NDSU to get up for this game and play above their potential a bit to the point that instead of looking like a #25 to #30-ish team in the country that they probably are next year, they'll look like a #15-ish team in the country for this game. Anytime you get a top-10 against a #15-ish team, it has a chance to be a good one.

I may leave Autzen with my expectations dashed, but I'd be okay with that too. It will still be a fun opportunity to see the Bison play a legitimate top-10 team in the country.
The App State upset is an interesting case. Michigan was ranked in the top 5 I believe t the time, making it a real stunner. However, Michigan proved the loss to be more than just a fluke by being boat raced the following week...by Oregon.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

ncduck wrote:
thebootfitter wrote:
wepto wrote:I think that's underselling NDSU a bit. I'd take 2019 NDSU as a straight up favorite over 2019 Stanford or Arizona. Oregon State and Cal (while Garbers was out) would also have a lot of trouble. They have shown that they can consistently beat mid/lower tier P5 teams. Ducks are still a solid favorite--but it's more like an 85/15% game than a 99/1% game.
Absolutely closer to a 85/15% probability split. Massey's computer algorithm shows the 2019 teams as an 80/20% probability split. Though regardless of the computed probabilities, I think an NDSU win would still be seen by many as comparable or bigger than the Michigan vs App State upset.

I still think that the game will look a lot like the Rose Bowl game against Wisconsin. I expect NDSU to get up for this game and play above their potential a bit to the point that instead of looking like a #25 to #30-ish team in the country that they probably are next year, they'll look like a #15-ish team in the country for this game. Anytime you get a top-10 against a #15-ish team, it has a chance to be a good one.

I may leave Autzen with my expectations dashed, but I'd be okay with that too. It will still be a fun opportunity to see the Bison play a legitimate top-10 team in the country.
The App State upset is an interesting case. Michigan was ranked in the top 5 I believe t the time, making it a real stunner. However, Michigan proved the loss to be more than just a fluke by being boat raced the following week...by Oregon.
I don't put a lot of stock in early season rankings. I suspect Michigan was overrated a bit in 2007, just like Iowa was in 2016.

However, I think there is also a psychological element that can be tough to overcome when a highly ranked team loses to "inferior competition." Good teams, players, and coaches can find a way to get through the self-doubt, but I think it is disingenuous to think that a loss to an FCS team wouldn't have an impact on the next few games in some way.

Consider Michigan in 2007 and Iowa in 2016 without those FCS losses. Would they have had a different look to their season? We'll never know, but I certainly think it is possible.

IF Oregon loses to NDSU -- and I realize it isn't likely, even though it probably has a higher probability than many Ducks' fans realize -- IF the Ducks lose to NDSU... Is there any chance they'd go into the game with tOSU the next week with some self doubt, having been beaten by a lowly FCS team? And then if they lose that game to start 0-2 on the year with all hope of a CFP berth gone, might it affect the rest of the season a bit?

Just like within any given contest, there are myriad variables that can influence a season. I hope NDSU beats Oregon and Oregon goes undefeated the rest of the regular season. I certainly think the Ducks will be capable of winning out. But if NDSU does win, and it has a negative impact on the rest of the season for Oregon, then people will discredit the NDSU win a bit by saying that the Ducks just weren't as good as everyone expected they'd be. Just like Michigan in 2007. And Iowa in 2016.

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by wepto »

thebootfitter wrote:I don't put a lot of stock in early season rankings. I suspect Michigan was overrated a bit in 2007, just like Iowa was in 2016.

However, I think there is also a psychological element that can be tough to overcome when a highly ranked team loses to "inferior competition." Good teams, players, and coaches can find a way to get through the self-doubt, but I think it is disingenuous to think that a loss to an FCS team wouldn't have an impact on the next few games in some way.

Consider Michigan in 2007 and Iowa in 2016 without those FCS losses. Would they have had a different look to their season? We'll never know, but I certainly think it is possible.

IF Oregon loses to NDSU -- and I realize it isn't likely, even though it probably has a higher probability than many Ducks' fans realize -- IF the Ducks lose to NDSU... Is there any chance they'd go into the game with tOSU the next week with some self doubt, having been beaten by a lowly FCS team? And then if they lose that game to start 0-2 on the year with all hope of a CFP berth gone, might it affect the rest of the season a bit?

Just like within any given contest, there are myriad variables that can influence a season. I hope NDSU beats Oregon and Oregon goes undefeated the rest of the regular season. I certainly think the Ducks will be capable of winning out. But if NDSU does win, and it has a negative impact on the rest of the season for Oregon, then people will discredit the NDSU win a bit by saying that the Ducks just weren't as good as everyone expected they'd be. Just like Michigan in 2007. And Iowa in 2016.

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Eh, now this is going too far in the other direction. NDSU beating an 11 win Oregon team is a pipe dream. The Ducks are a big underdog to Ohio St. The Ducks only win that game by being better than expected and only lose to NDSU if they are worse than expected. Ohio St is on a completely different level than Oregon. It sucks but it's true.

NDSU's best hope is that Oregon struggles at center and QB simultaneously--similar to what we all witnessed in a certain 31 point comeback that we don't like to talk about. If Oregon somehow loses to NDSU, it will be an ugly year--probably 7 or 8 wins.

Oregon's spring game is going to be interesting. If the Ducks look solid at center and QB, NDSU's chances start to look a lot worse. Middle linebacker is the other question mark (Ducks lose Troy Dye)--but with two 5* freshmen coming in, most of us aren't too worried about it. But the middle linebacker is responsible for calling the defense, so who knows how long it will take to earn the coaches trust. Dru Mathis struggled in the game that Dye missed last year--but that against the air raid (WSU). I don't think we've seen much of him versus a more traditional offense.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

I guess I muddled my main point with some of my pipe dreams in that last post.

My main point was simply that a loss to an FCS team may have some impact on the psyche of players, even if they are very talented and capable, to the point that it could influence the outcome of future games and consequently the whole season.

It's impossible to quantify that impact, even in hindsight for the 2007 Michigan team or the 2016 Iowa team. Maybe they WERE a top 5 and top 15 team, respectively, but their souls were crushed by those losses and didn't perform like it through the season. Which of course, in hindsight, means they weren't really good enough to overcome that mental aspect and didn't deserve to be top 5 & 15.

Secondary point: there are more variables than talent and speed that determine the outcome of a football field.

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GrandpaDuck »

thebootfitter wrote:I guess I muddled my main point with some of my pipe dreams in that last post.

My main point was simply that a loss to an FCS team may have some impact on the psyche of players, even if they are very talented and capable, to the point that it could influence the outcome of future games and consequently the whole season.

It's impossible to quantify that impact, even in hindsight for the 2007 Michigan team or the 2016 Iowa team. Maybe they WERE a top 5 and top 15 team, respectively, but their souls were crushed by those losses and didn't perform like it through the season. Which of course, in hindsight, means they weren't really good enough to overcome that mental aspect and didn't deserve to be top 5 & 15.

Secondary point: there are more variables than talent and speed that determine the outcome of a football field.

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In 2009 Oregon had an experienced mobile strong armed QB, good WR, a great tight-end, 3 future NFL running backs but the least experienced O-Line ever. In their first game against WAC Boise State, it took them tell late in the 3rd quarter to get one 1st down. The O-line continued to be awful but improving for the next 2 which largely due to the defense scoring points, Oregon won. The 4th game the line improved to the point that Oregon's excellent skill players were able to generate a 40 point per game offense in conference play and they went on to play in the Rose Bowl.

In 2007 despite Michigan's FCS loss then the ass kicking by Oregon in the second game, Michigan beat Notre Dame 38-0 the next week, beat #10 Penn State the week after that and then won the next 6 in a row as well.

Neither team experienced the deflation you hypothesized after their embarrassing loss.

I could see the real possibility of Oregon's offense starting out awful against NDSU and OhSU, but building to the point where by conference play being good enough with the strong defense to win out and play in the Rose Bowl. This would be your very possible dream scenario. But if the Oregon offense is good enough to win against QhSU in the second game, NDSU will have their hands full. I dont see the the 11-1 with the only loss being NDSU while I could see 10-2 if the line starts horribly but improves rapidly.

While I fear our O-Line at the start of the season, it is interesting to note that Oregon will have more 4 and 5 star players to try to piece an O-line together with than the KSU and Iowa teams you beat had on their entire teams combined. So the potential at least is there.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Duck07 »

We're going to have a Top 10 defense next year and they won't be taking the Bison lightly. More to the point for us though may be that by playing such a quality program will help us get ready to upset the Buckeyes the following week.

So who is the better program between Bowling Green and NDSU?
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