Looking back at past drafts (2024)

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Cellar-door
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Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Cellar-door »

5 years seems like the right time (well 5.5) to look back at 2024's draft and analyze what we saw in the lottery.
I'll add to this later, but let's get this started:

1. Phoenix Suns | LeBron James Jr SF 6'8'' 212 19 C+ A- B- B C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2027 - All-Defensive Second Team
2028 - All-Star Game Participant
2028 - All-League Third Team
2028 - All-Defensive Team

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The #1 pick of the draft comes through as the best player of the draft so far, only player to make All-League, only All-Star.

2. Golden State Warriors (from Pacers) | Scottie Barnes SF 6'7'' 235 21 B- B+ C B C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Second Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant

Image

Career numbers paint him as a strong solid player, but not a superstar. Last 2 years shows a significant jump, seems unlikely he ever really challenges Bronny, but he's on pace to maybe become an All-Star.


3. Phoenix Suns (from Rockets) | Jalen Green SG 6'5'' 210 22 C+ B+ C C+ D+ A
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2028 - All-Defensive Second Team

Image

A bit of a late bloomer, only other player to make a non-rookie league-wide award list has a real chance to be the 2nd best all-around player in the draft based on his defense.


4. Orlando Magic | N'Faly Dante C 7'0'' 253 22 C D+ C- B- B+ A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant

Image

A solid enough big man for a rotation, but certainly not what one hopes for in a top 4 pick, blocks and rebounds have ticked up recently but not significantly, so what you see is probably what you get going forward.


5. Toronto Raptors | Jalen Johnson PG 6'7'' 181 21 C C+ B A- C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2025 - Rookie Game MVP


Image

Had a bit of a breakout the last 2, particular this year, big scoring and assist jump, though a turnover spike as well. Very good player at a deep position.



6. Cleveland Cavaliers | Jaden Springer SG 6'3'' 202 20 C A- C- C+ C A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Springer 157 20.7 0.443 0.942 0.39 3.3 0.9 1 0.2 1.2 4.1

Currently unsigned, the first true bust of this draft, his percentages shooting are actually quite decent, but just never made it into a regular player.


7. Philadelphia 76ers | Jaemyn Brakefield PF 6'9'' 225 22 B- C- C C B- A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Brakefield 148 13.2 0.408 0.579 0 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 2.2

Currently Unsigned, another bust but his is more clear, the man can rebound, but couldn't get it done with the ball in his hands, poor percentages decent amount of turnovers.



8. Boston Celtics (from Warriors) | Marcus Bagley SF 6'7'' 218 21 C+ C C B D+ A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Bagley out of league no stats available

While Marvin dominates, Marcus quickly found himself not only off a roster but out of the player pool.


9. Chicago Bulls | Xavier Foster PF 6'9'' 234 22 B+ C- C B- C+ B
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - Rookie Game MVP
2024 - Rookie of the Year
2024 - All-Rookie Team

Image

The last of the truly strong players in this lottery, Foster is a very good player who hasn't quite made it to the all-star level.

10. Golden State Warriors (from Lakers) | Justice Ajogbor C 6'10'' 235 22 C C- C- B- B- A

Image

Not a bust this late, but mostly a bench player at this point.

11. Denver Nuggets | Hunter Dickinson C 6'11'' 257 21 C+ C- D B- B B
Image


Another bench player, but may be on his way out of the league, only 1 game played this season, and without a good TC next year probably done.


12. Portland Trailblazers | Jason Harris PF 6'9'' 224 21 C C D+ B B B
Image


Fringe bench big, probably on his last run in the league.


13. New York Knicks | Jamal Mashburn Jr. SG 6'5'' 217 21 C C C- C C A
Out of DASL completely, last pick of the lottery isn't where you expect too much, but not even getting a bench player out of it is tough.


Past the lottery... it is very rough.
There is one league-wide award winner....
15. Charlotte Hornets | Brandon Boston PF 6'8'' 230 22 C+ C+ D+ C+ C+ B
Brandon Boston, who has become a decent big off the bench, peaking with a 2026 Sixth man of the year.

And finally, the late bloomer:
25. Boston Celtics | Jadon Jones SF 6'5'' 218 21 B A- D+ D+ D+ C
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A late breakout in his 5th year, finally translating his great percentages to a volume increase, mostly just a scorer. but a really good scorer.


TAKEAWAYS

The top 5 was actually quite good, no busts and several potential franchise guys.
The rest of the lottery was a mess
The next three guys (6-8) didn't make it past their first contract, the last pick in the lottery didn't either and 2 more are deep on a bench and may not be on a roster next season. Only 2 other players in the draft are starter quality.

Now this is only 1 draft, but it does seem to be a common trend. The very top of drafts is usually excellent, but everything after the top 3-5 is kind of a crapshoot, with no real difference is prejected outcomes between 7-10 and 17-20.
Last edited by Cellar-door on Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:53 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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pistolpetejr
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by pistolpetejr »

It seems like a lot of the insight you're providing has to do with career numbers vs where they're at today, unless I'm wrong?
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Cellar-door »

pistolpetejr wrote:It seems like a lot of the insight you're providing has to do with career numbers vs where they're at today, unless I'm wrong?
I've only pulled career so far, I'm going to come back in with past 2 years in the update to show who is trending up and down.
Mostly so far it's just an overview based on what value you got out of the first contract (plus a year). I'll flesh it out after I pull the data and do the math.
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by pistolpetejr »

Cellar-door wrote:
pistolpetejr wrote:It seems like a lot of the insight you're providing has to do with career numbers vs where they're at today, unless I'm wrong?
I've only pulled career so far, I'm going to come back in with past 2 years in the update to show who is trending up and down.
Mostly so far it's just an overview based on what value you got out of the first contract (plus a year). I'll flesh it out after I pull the data and do the math.
Got it. Thanks! :)
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Cellar-door »

Alright finally got Jadon Jones' stats pulled.

Overall about what I expected, very top of most DASL drafts seems to be very good, but after that only a few impact guys and lots and lots of guys who will end up on the fringes as their rookie deal ends.
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Craig »

Bron is a beast.
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by The Bean Regime »

I like looks at past draft classes.

Ajogbor was a high-ceiling pick. Forget what I traded him for, but it seems like he never really panned out to much.

Seeing Foster's position hurts. I love my offensive bigs, and he was taken 1 before me, and 1 after the pick I traded. :(

Am interested to see if a contender makes use of Jones. Perhaps a team like the Nuggets who could use a #1 or #2 scorer. Otherwise, he's not much value. Huge liability everywhere else and can't really play SF, so he's either a starter or a 12-14 mpg guy.
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by pistolpetejr »

The Bean Regime wrote:I like looks at past draft classes.

Ajogbor was a high-ceiling pick. Forget what I traded him for, but it seems like he never really panned out to much.

Seeing Foster's position hurts. I love my offensive bigs, and he was taken 1 before me, and 1 after the pick I traded. :(

Am interested to see if a contender makes use of Jones. Perhaps a team like the Nuggets who could use a #1 or #2 scorer. Otherwise, he's not much value. Huge liability everywhere else and can't really play SF, so he's either a starter or a 12-14 mpg guy.
Poor man's Troy Brown.
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Oregon Ownage »

While Dante didn't become a superstar, he still is a vital piece of the Magic IMO. Doesn't take too many shots and does the dirty work while more efficient players dominant

Picks 6-8..... ouch
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Cellar-door »

can we get some more votes on this?
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Cellar-door »

Don't know if 11 votes is enough, but whenever you decide to close this put the boost on:
Amir Cousins
-Strength
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Oregon Ownage »

Cellar-door wrote:Don't know if 11 votes is enough, but whenever you decide to close this put the boost on:
Amir Cousins
-Strength
need other categories
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Cellar-door »

Oregon Ownage wrote:
Cellar-door wrote:Don't know if 11 votes is enough, but whenever you decide to close this put the boost on:
Amir Cousins
-Strength
need other categories
huh surprising.

-Quickness
_Shot Blocking
-Post Defense
-Jump Shot
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Re: Looking back at past drafts (2024)

Post by Oregon Ownage »

Cellar-door wrote:
Oregon Ownage wrote:
Cellar-door wrote:Don't know if 11 votes is enough, but whenever you decide to close this put the boost on:
Amir Cousins
-Strength
need other categories
huh surprising.

-Quickness
_Shot Blocking
-Post Defense
-Jump Shot
Done
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