Obvious Insider Draft Secret: Bigs + Balls = No Score!

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The Bean Regime
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Obvious Insider Draft Secret: Bigs + Balls = No Score!

Post by The Bean Regime »

Man I don't know. I'm tired. Shut up.

I have a rule of thumb for drafting that I suppose I will share with you today. When drafting bigs, a big with an inside and rebounding difference of two or more will never even become a decent player offensively. To provide an example, if I see a big with C+ inside and B rebounding, or B- inside and B+ rebounding (and so on), they will never be a consistent 10+ PPG guy. I suppose the opposite may be true in determining good scorers, but I’m not looking into that right now.

Now, I’ve never actually researched this. I just assumed it to be the case through personal experience in sim leagues. So, I am quite eager to see if this proves to be correct. I will be looking at players from 3 drafts ago to 15. This will give a solid foundation of players while hopefully giving the players enough time to develop an offensive game. I had planned on doing only lotto picks, but the collection of players was rather bare, so I extended it to the top 21 picks. By limiting the picks, I’m hoping to avoid an oversaturation of players that weren’t expected to produce anyway.

Here’s the complete list of players from each draft and their overall selections

2032
21. Los Angeles Clippers (from Mavericks) | Nate Coffey PF 6'7'' 230 20 C C D+ B A- B

2031
20. Washington Bullets | Kobe Schrempf C 6'11'' 248 23 C+ C D+ B+ B B

2030
#11 New York Knicks | Absimov Saperstein C 7'4'' 296 19 B- D+ C B- B+ B

2029
11. Los Angeles Lakers | Kris Banwareesingh C 7'2'' 260 20 C D D- B B- A
13. New Jersey Nets | Lino Marks C 6'11'' 233 22 C C- D+ C+ B A

2028
17. Orlando Magic | Jake Pate PF 6'9'' 244 20 B C C A- A- C

2027
12. Los Angeles Lakers | Jakhary Towns PF 6'10'' 224 23 C+ C- C B+ B+ B
21. Philadelphia 76ers | Jorden Williams C 6'11'' 232 20 C C- C C+ B- A

2026
13. Houston Rockets (from Suns) | Warren Kidd C 6'10'' 242 23 C D D- B- B- A

2025
11. Chicago Bulls | Michael Foster PF 6'9'' 235 22 C+ C C- B+ B B
17. Detroit Pistons | Nnanna Njoku C 6'10'' 252 22 C+ C- C C B B

2024
4. Orlando Magic | N'Faly Dante C 7'0'' 253 22 C D+ C- B- B+ A
10. Golden State Warriors (from Lakers) | Justice Ajogbor C 6'10'' 235 22 C C- C- B- B- A
11. Denver Nuggets | Hunter Dickinson C 6'11'' 257 21 C+ C- D B- B B
12. Portland Trailblazers | Jason Harris PF 6'9'' 224 21 C C D+ B B B

2023
19. Orlando Magic (from Spurs) | Francis Okoro C 6'9'' 225 21 C C- C- C+ B+ B

2022
12. Miami Heat | Makur Maker PF 6'11'' 215 21 C+ C C B B B
18. Los Angeles Clippers | Nathan Mensah C 6'10'' 225 24 C C- D A B+ B

2021
10. Utah Jazz | Charles Bassey C 6'10'' 235 20 C- D+ C B B- A
15. Toronto Raptors (from Bucks) | Reggie Perry PF 6'9'' 220 21 B- C- C B- B+ B
21. Chicago Bulls (from Kings) | David McCormack C 6'10'' 255 21 C C C- B- B B

2020
20. New York Knicks (from Rockets) | Ira Lee C 6'9'' 235 22 C+ D+ C B B B


Mostly later picks, but some recognizable names are included. And without further ado, the stats:


Current inside ratings: 2 B-‘s, 7 C+’s, 4 C’s, 1 C-


Totals won’t match as some players fall out of the league. Bassey (C inside) is the only one not on a team that is currently active.


The following are the results. Season high is based on season-high PPG, not MPG. Bolded are players with season high PPG above 10.

Player stats (current inside) (career MPG:PPG) (season high MPG:PPG):
Nate Coffey (C+) (21.6:4.9) (25.3:6.9)
Kobe Schrempf (C+) (24.3:6.8) (29.6:7.9)
Absimov Saperstein (B-) (33.5:11.3) (33.1:15.5)
Kris Banwareesingh (C+) (23.9:5.1) (25.7:6.2)
Lino Marks: Retired
Jake Pate (B-) (26.6:9.7) (35.6:12.3)
Jakhary Towns (C+) (20.0:3.9) (26.2:6.5)
Jorden Williams: Retired
Warren Kidd (C-) (19.6:4.4) (21.9:6.4)
Michael Foster (C+) (18.5:3.4) (32.9:5.6)
Nnanna Njoku: Retired
N’Faly Dante (C+) (30.7:7.8) (29.7:9.5)
Justice Ajogbor (C) (22.0:4.7) (32.4:11.6)
Hunter Dickinson (C+) (13.5:3.8) (22.1:5.9)
Jason Harris: Retired
Francis Okoro (C) (17.1:2.9) (21.3:4.3)
Makur Makur: Retired
Nathan Mensah: Retired
Charles Bassey (C) (17.4:2.3) (22.4:4.1)
Reggie Perry: Retired
David McCormack (C) (28.6:6.7) (33.4:9.8)
Ira Lee: Retired


And here’s the summary as a nice TLDR since this is kind of long:

Total amount of players with a career average above 10 PPG: 1/22 (4.54%)
Above minus retired: 1/14 (7.14%)
Total amount of players with a season high above 10 PPG: 3/22 (13.6%)
Above minus retired: 3/14 (21.4%)
Total amount of players with a career points per 36 above 10: 4/22 (18.2%)
Above minus retired: 4/14 (28.6%)
Total amount of players with a season high points per 36 above 10: 6/22 (27.3%)
Above minus retired: 6/14 (42.9%)
Amount of lotto picks with a career points per 36 above 10: 2/12 (16.7%)
Above minus retired: 2/9 (22.2%)
Amount of lotto picks with a season high points per 36 above 10: 4/12 (33.3%)
Above minus retired: 4/9 (44.4%)

So, even in the best of circumstances allowing for points per 36 on active lotto picks, not even half of the players can manage a single season of 10 points per 36. Justice Ajogbor’s season high is also a bit of an outlier, since he only played 38 games. His next highest was 8.7 PPG in 33.8 MPG, which misses the 10 points per 36 mark.

An interesting note was Hunter Dickinson’s career average meeting the 10 points per 36 threshold (10.1), but his season high PPG not meeting it (9.6).

And so it rings true! Abandon thee bigs who fit the criteria, unless they're a 7'4" 300lb behemoth. I'm not saying don't draft these bigs, but rather don't draft them with expectations of the player becoming a net positive on the offensive end.
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Craig
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Re: Obvious Insider Draft Secret: Bigs + Balls = No Score!

Post by Craig »

Or they’re just not good on offense and their rebounding has nothing to do with it

Work smarter not harder man.
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The Bean Regime
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Re: Obvious Insider Draft Secret: Bigs + Balls = No Score!

Post by The Bean Regime »

Craig wrote:Or they’re just not good on offense and their rebounding has nothing to do with it

Work smarter not harder man.
Rebounding has plenty to do with it.
Inside = inside scoring + strength + jumping
Rebounding = Orebounding + Drebounding + strength + jumping

So, if a player has much higher rebounding than inside, it tells you either:
They're unathletic and high rebounding, which spells disaster for scoring unless their inside scoring is quite high
or
They're athletic and medium rebounding, which spells disaster for scoring as their inside must be terrible
or
something in between

It just simply tells you that sure, 2035 draftee Marvin Dench has solid post scoring potential in his notes, but it's very unlikely he actually develops it to a respectable number.

Also, even though he didn't start it, Bai Li is now B inside and A- rebounding. Interested to see how he performs offensively. :lol:
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Oregon Ownage
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Re: Obvious Insider Draft Secret: Bigs + Balls = No Score!

Post by Oregon Ownage »

The Bean Regime wrote:
Craig wrote:Or they’re just not good on offense and their rebounding has nothing to do with it

Work smarter not harder man.
Rebounding has plenty to do with it.
Inside = inside scoring + strength + jumping
Rebounding = Orebounding + Drebounding + strength + jumping
Jumping from my research has no impact on rebounding, only inside scoring but it would be a cool experiment to try. I might do that this weekend actually. I can run a separate file with a controlled player and have his stats be the same but make one have a 100 jumping and the other 0 to compare stats. I can do the same with quickness as it might have an impact too.
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The Bean Regime
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Re: Obvious Insider Draft Secret: Bigs + Balls = No Score!

Post by The Bean Regime »

Oregon Ownage wrote:
The Bean Regime wrote:
Craig wrote:Or they’re just not good on offense and their rebounding has nothing to do with it

Work smarter not harder man.
Rebounding has plenty to do with it.
Inside = inside scoring + strength + jumping
Rebounding = Orebounding + Drebounding + strength + jumping
Jumping from my research has no impact on rebounding, only inside scoring but it would be a cool experiment to try. I might do that this weekend actually. I can run a separate file with a controlled player and have his stats be the same but make one have a 100 jumping and the other 0 to compare stats. I can do the same with quickness as it might have an impact too.
It's been a while, maybe I'm wrong there. Back when I did leagues, I spent some time editing all of the stats to see exactly what effects what ratings, and would put that in a post.

I don't remember what quickness effects at all.
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Re: Obvious Insider Draft Secret: Bigs + Balls = No Score!

Post by Oregon Ownage »

Interesting thought and something I never considered when looking at bigs. Thanks for putting this together
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