Purely hypothetical question...

[SuperDuck]

stay at 9 - 10 wins a year and I doubt there will be a hot seat anytime soon

This is spot on. If we're winning 9-10 games on average and are in the conversation regarding conference championships and playoffs, that would be as good as almost anyone in the country.

Look at the history of Les Miles at LSU.

2005 11-2

2006 11-2

2007 12-2

BCS Championship
SEC Champions;
BCS National Champions

2008 8-5

2009 9-4

2010 11-2
2011 13-1 BCS Champioship No. 1; SEC Champions (BCS Runner-up)
2012 10-3


Notice the first three years. Those are mostly with Nick Saban's recruits. Then notice the drop in 2008/2009 before rebuilding again from 2010 on.


Chip was 10-3 (Rose Bowl Loss), 12-1 (BCS Runner-Up), 12-2 (Rose Bowl Win), 12-1 (Fiesta Bowl Win). Would anyone be ready to fire him if he'd dropped to 11-2 last season? Not a chance.

Keep in mind, many of the recruits on Chip's teams were from the Mike Bellotti era. Yes, Chip had a big hand in bringing in several offensive players, but not that defense. Kiko Alonso, Michael Clay, Dion Jordon, Casey Matthews and company were all Bellotti era.

I have no doubt that we never would have achieved what we did without Chip. All I'm saying is that he didn't do it all on his own.

Something else, Oregon was just as good as Ohio State or Clemson and if not for the regional factor the Orange Bowl might have taken them over Clemson.

I'm just saying that yes, we should have high expectations, but we also need to realize exactly what really good is and be realistic. We're not going to be undefeated every year. We're not going to be in the playoffs every year. We're not going to be in the Rose Bowl every year. As much as I'd hate it, there may come a year where we struggle and not even make a Bowl game. That could be a combination of a shift in power in the conference, 1-2 poor recruiting classes (looked good on film, but washed out or sucked), injuries to key players, etc.

Enjoy the good years, rejoice in the great years and stand by them in the down years. They're all bound to happen.

[duckfan22]

stay at 9 - 10 wins a year and I doubt there will be a hot seat anytime soon

This is spot on. If we're winning 9-10 games on average and are in the conversation regarding conference championships and playoffs, that would be as good as almost anyone in the country.

Look at the history of Les Miles at LSU.

2005 11-2

2006 11-2

2007 12-2

BCS Championship
SEC Champions;
BCS National Champions

2008 8-5

2009 9-4

2010 11-2
2011 13-1 BCS Champioship No. 1; SEC Champions (BCS Runner-up)
2012 10-3


Notice the first three years. Those are mostly with Nick Saban's recruits. Then notice the drop in 2008/2009 before rebuilding again from 2010 on.


Chip was 10-3 (Rose Bowl Loss), 12-1 (BCS Runner-Up), 12-2 (Rose Bowl Win), 12-1 (Fiesta Bowl Win). Would anyone be ready to fire him if he'd dropped to 11-2 last season? Not a chance.

Keep in mind, many of the recruits on Chip's teams were from the Mike Bellotti era. Yes, Chip had a big hand in bringing in several offensive players, but not that defense. Kiko Alonso, Michael Clay, Dion Jordon, Casey Matthews and company were all Bellotti era.

I have no doubt that we never would have achieved what we did without Chip. All I'm saying is that he didn't do it all on his own.

Something else, Oregon was just as good as Ohio State or Clemson and if not for the regional factor the Orange Bowl might have taken them over Clemson.

I'm just saying that yes, we should have high expectations, but we also need to realize exactly what really good is and be realistic. We're not going to be undefeated every year. We're not going to be in the playoffs every year. We're not going to be in the Rose Bowl every year. As much as I'd hate it, there may come a year where we struggle and not even make a Bowl game. That could be a combination of a shift in power in the conference, 1-2 poor recruiting classes (looked good on film, but washed out or sucked), injuries to key players, etc.

Enjoy the good years, rejoice in the great years and stand by them in the down years. They're all bound to happen.

Nomination for post of the year....well said....and spot on....

[SuperDuck]

stay at 9 - 10 wins a year and I doubt there will be a hot seat anytime soon

This is spot on. If we're winning 9-10 games on average and are in the conversation regarding conference championships and playoffs, that would be as good as almost anyone in the country.

Look at the history of Les Miles at LSU.

2005 11-2

2006 11-2

2007 12-2

BCS Championship
SEC Champions;
BCS National Champions

2008 8-5

2009 9-4

2010 11-2
2011 13-1 BCS Champioship No. 1; SEC Champions (BCS Runner-up)
2012 10-3


Notice the first three years. Those are mostly with Nick Saban's recruits. Then notice the drop in 2008/2009 before rebuilding again from 2010 on.


Chip was 10-3 (Rose Bowl Loss), 12-1 (BCS Runner-Up), 12-2 (Rose Bowl Win), 12-1 (Fiesta Bowl Win). Would anyone be ready to fire him if he'd dropped to 11-2 last season? Not a chance.

Keep in mind, many of the recruits on Chip's teams were from the Mike Bellotti era. Yes, Chip had a big hand in bringing in several offensive players, but not that defense. Kiko Alonso, Michael Clay, Dion Jordon, Casey Matthews and company were all Bellotti era.

I have no doubt that we never would have achieved what we did without Chip. All I'm saying is that he didn't do it all on his own.

Something else, Oregon was just as good as Ohio State or Clemson and if not for the regional factor the Orange Bowl might have taken them over Clemson.

I'm just saying that yes, we should have high expectations, but we also need to realize exactly what really good is and be realistic. We're not going to be undefeated every year. We're not going to be in the playoffs every year. We're not going to be in the Rose Bowl every year. As much as I'd hate it, there may come a year where we struggle and not even make a Bowl game. That could be a combination of a shift in power in the conference, 1-2 poor recruiting classes (looked good on film, but washed out or sucked), injuries to key players, etc.

Enjoy the good years, rejoice in the great years and stand by them in the down years. They're all bound to happen.

Nomination for post of the year....well said....and spot on....

Thanks, man.


I just thought of another example - Bob Stoops. Another great coach, but with all of his success, he's also had more than his share of hiccups as well.

Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12 Conference) (1999–present)

1999 Oklahoma 7–5 5–3 T–2nd (South) L Independence
2000 Oklahoma 13–0 8–0 1st (South) W Orange† 1 1
2001 Oklahoma 11–2 6–2 2nd (South) W Cotton 6 6
2002 Oklahoma 12–2 6–2 T–1st (South) W Rose† 5 5
2003 Oklahoma 12–2 8–0 1st (South) L Sugar† 3 3
2004 Oklahoma 12–1 8–0 1st (South) L Orange† 3 3
2005 Oklahoma 8–4 6–2 T-2nd (South) W Holiday 22 22
2006 Oklahoma 11–3 7–1 1st (South) L Fiesta† 11 11
2007 Oklahoma 11–3 6–2 1st (South) L Fiesta† 8 8
2008 Oklahoma 12–2 7–1 T–1st (South) L BCS NCG† 5 5
2009 Oklahoma 8–5 5–3 T–3rd (South) W Sun
2010 Oklahoma 12–2 6–2 T–1st (South) W Fiesta† 6 6
2011 Oklahoma 10–3 6–3 T–3rd W Insight 15 16
2012 Oklahoma 10–3 8–1 T–1st L Cotton 15 15
2013 Oklahoma 11–2 7–2 T–2nd W Sugar† 6 6

We should throw out the first season as an adjustment period, but look at his record since. Only one undefeated season and only one one loss season. Yes, he made it to all of those national championship games, but only won the first one - with mostly someone elses players. Also, one of those years they made it they were chosen over a 12-1 Texas team that beat them that year and was ranked #3, one spot behind the Sooners in the BCS. They made a few of those BCS Bowls based soley on their tradition. Stoops BCS Bowl record is 3-4 and overall Bowl record is 8-7.

Is Bob Stoops a great coach? Absolutely! Honestly, I'd be interested to see how well he'd do if he had to start over again at a downtrodden program with no tradition, but you can't take away what he's accomplished.

Still, in his 15 years at Oklahoma he's had 7 seasons with 3 losses or more and 6 seasons with 2 losses (like Oregon had last year). Also, he's finished ranked in the Top-10 9 times out of 15 years. That's 60%. You'd think the guy walks on water, but 40% of the time, almost half, he didn't finish in the Top-10.

Like Les Miles and other great coaches, it looks like Bob Stoops bleeds red too.

So should he be on the hot seat if he has a couple bad seasons in a row? To even consider it would be incredibly stupid.

The truth of the matter is that there are only 10-15 really good or "elite" coaches in college football. Stoops and Les Miles are two of them, but their record indicates that as good as they are, they're also human.

If Mark Helfrich is here 15 years and has an identical record as Bob Stoops (including one natty), would anyone percieve him as a failure or an average coach? Personally, I'd be doing backflips.

Not to beat a dead horse. I'm simply trying to make people realize what a really good coach looks like. Let's give Helfrich a chance to prove himself and stop trying to compare him to Chip. It's a totally unfair comparison.

[UofDuck]

11 wins, a top 10 ranking and we are really having this hypothetical conversation? Our star QB was playing on one leg for the last half of the season and the team still won 11 games. Coaching had a lot to do with that. The games weren't pretty but they weren't always pretty under Chip either. Anyone remember the UCLA game in 2008? Perspective folks...get some. As a first time head coach, he lead a team to a top 10 finish. Was he perfect? Absolutely not but it was a hell of a first season and he is building off of it in recruiting this year.

As for the reference above about Gus Malzahn, if you really think he would have even entertained leaving the south then you must have found the right dispensary in Vancouver. He's a southerner through and through, a devoutly religious man who wears it on his sleeve. He would have fit as well in Eugene as I would playing starting QB for the Ducks. Outside of Chris Petersen, I don't know who else we would have gone after.

Think of how different Gus would have looked as a first year coach if they had lost their home opener to Wazzu? Which they were inches from doing. Sometimes it's just a lucky bounce or two between great and average.

[bigsugarduck]

Someone should put these threads in a time capsil to be opened in 5 years....we might look back and chuckle at our insecurity...

Everyone likes to say how smart and how great Chip was. After a year or two we all bought in and had total faith in what he was doing. Why dont we all have some faith in the supreme god of intellect and foresight that was Chip Kelley and trust his judgement in selecting Helfrich as the next head coach??

Honestly, I find the argument that we should have hired some other head coach to be somewhat asinine. Besides the liklihood that this would have gutted the staff, there would have been a brand new system employed, perhaps with players ill suited to what that coach wanted to do. Football is often about the right players in the right system and hiring someone else would have greatly increased a MULTI-year overhall and many more losses. You think 2 losses is slipping when a bunch of bad luck hit this team in 2013...well we would have seen REAL slippage with that bad luck hitting a brand new staff. As it stands we have the right players in the right system and a real chance in 2014 by all accounts, and the current staff appears to be getting the right recruits to sustain this team at a high level in the future. Perhaps you'd say that there is a higher ceiling with a Chris Peterson, but there is no guarantee that the three players who stayed in Ekpre-Olomu, Grasu and Mariota would have stayed (for an extra year) for coaches they barely knew, killing any chance in 2014.

[lukeyrid13]

11 wins, a top 10 ranking and we are really having this hypothetical conversation? Our star QB was playing on one leg for the last half of the season and the team still won 11 games. Coaching had a lot to do with that. The games weren't pretty but they weren't always pretty under Chip either. Anyone remember the UCLA game in 2008? Perspective folks...get some. As a first time head coach, he lead a team to a top 10 finish. Was he perfect? Absolutely not but it was a hell of a first season and he is building off of it in recruiting this year.

As for the reference above about Gus Malzahn, if you really think he would have even entertained leaving the south then you must have found the right dispensary in Vancouver. He's a southerner through and through, a devoutly religious man who wears it on his sleeve. He would have fit as well in Eugene as I would playing starting QB for the Ducks. Outside of Chris Petersen, I don't know who else we would have gone after.

Think of how different Gus would have looked as a first year coach if they had lost their home opener to Wazzu? Which they were inches from doing. Sometimes it's just a lucky bounce or two between great and average.

Or not had two of the luckiest plays in the last decade(hail mary vs Georgia and 109 yard return against Bama)

[OregonFan4Life]

11 wins, a top 10 ranking and we are really having this hypothetical conversation? Our star QB was playing on one leg for the last half of the season and the team still won 11 games. Coaching had a lot to do with that. The games weren't pretty but they weren't always pretty under Chip either. Anyone remember the UCLA game in 2008? Perspective folks...get some. As a first time head coach, he lead a team to a top 10 finish. Was he perfect? Absolutely not but it was a hell of a first season and he is building off of it in recruiting this year.

As for the reference above about Gus Malzahn, if you really think he would have even entertained leaving the south then you must have found the right dispensary in Vancouver. He's a southerner through and through, a devoutly religious man who wears it on his sleeve. He would have fit as well in Eugene as I would playing starting QB for the Ducks. Outside of Chris Petersen, I don't know who else we would have gone after.

Think of how different Gus would have looked as a first year coach if they had lost their home opener to Wazzu? Which they were inches from doing. Sometimes it's just a lucky bounce or two between great and average.

Or not had two of the luckiest plays in the last decade(hail mary vs Georgia and 109 yard return against Bama)

Auburn really is by far the luckiest team in college football. Even the year they won the national championship they had like 6 games including the game against Oregon where one lucky break decided the game and they benefited from that lucky break. They literally should've lost to Clemson that year, I do remember that.

[blazer prophet]

We just have to win a natty and get the credit we should have.

[nogerO]

We as duck fans still have about 6 weeks before our first game. I am not trying to cause any kind of debate per se... just getting some feedback from other duck fans. If Oregon loses 2 games during the season and does not play in the Pac 12 championship do you think that Mark Helfrich will be on the hot seat or maybe even get fired. I like him as a person and think it is cool having a guy from Oregon coaching our team. That being said though... being a nice guy does not always play well when it comes to being a coach. I can only imagine how difficult it is to have to follow Chip Kelly and the way he elevated the program. For me personally... it is not the loss to Stanford that bothers me... although it was tough to swallow... it is the game against Arizona that kind of rubs me the wrong way. I know and believe all coaches have games they just can not get their team to focus on and play well. I look at this years schedule and I see at least 4 games that could be trouble. I think we win them but for the sake of this post and this question.. I will point to them. We have games against Michigan State. Washington, and Stanford and yes all of them are at home but none can be taken lightly. We also have a game at UCLA down there. This is all hypothetical of course. Just wondering how many games Oregon loses before Helfrich is questioned as a coach. I would love for Oregon to win all of them and be playing for the national championship. I do believe that is a realistic and achievable goal. The question is mainly considering what happens if they do not get there or even get to the Pac 12 championship. What then will be said or done with Helfrich.

You can't be over 30 years old. You should have been around when a winning season, or hell, even beating either Udumb or OSewe was a great year. Enjoy the ride...

[nogerO]

nt

[duckfan96]

No kidding O remember when a win over UDub was huge, now it's fun but expected. A question to people ...how many programs end the season with less losses than Oregon? Very fn few. Give coach a chance.

[nogerO]

No kidding O remember when a win over UDub was huge, now it's fun but expected. A question to people ...how many programs end the season with less losses than Oregon? Very fn few. Give coach a chance.

Just another sign of how old I'm getting, sigh... I remember arriving at Autzen at 12:30, buying a GA ticket and walking into the stadium and sitting pretty much anywhere you wanted. And then losing to someone like San Jose State 5-0.

[GoDucksIn09]

On the contrary noger0 I am old enough to remember when Dan Fouts and Bobby Moore played and being behind 49-0 to USC. I also remember going to Autzen and being able to walk up to the ticket office and buy a ticket the day of the game. So you would be quite wrong in thinking I am not even 30. I saw many games against the dawgs where they might be ahead for a short time and end up losing because we just did not have the players that the huskies did. I have a right to my feelings of not being totally sold on Helfrich. I hope I am wrong. I have always said it would be really neat for Oregon to have a guy from Oregon take us to the national championship. I also though see reasons for concern. That being said though... you are also entitled to your opinion. Just be sure it is opinion and not fact.