If you were completely objective, do you take UW or UO?

northbeachsf · Post by **northbeachsf** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:21 am

As a Duck fan, I would almost rather see UW lose then Oregon win...almost. I will have all my Duck gear on on Saturday and will be chearing for my team. However, I am very concerned about this game for a number of reasons. Which brings me to my question:

If you were forced to be COMPLETELY OBJECTIVE and you had to bet you house on this game, who would you take?

It makes me sick to my stomach to say this, but I think I would have to take UW right now. Here is why:

1) UW's front seven is probably playing better than any unit in the Pac-12 right now. They are No.1 in the conference in scoring defense and No. 2 in total defense. As one of the other posters pointed out in another thread - Kikaha is no. 2 in the country in sacks; Shelton is no. 6.; and Shaq Thompson as a Linebacker has five td's on the year. Did you see what these guys did to Cal's offense? It was impressive.

2) Oregon's line could not block a chair right now. I know Fisher is back and they did a decent job against UCLA, but in case you have not noticed...UCLA's defense is by far the worst in the conference, so I don't know how much you can read into that. I see very little chance that Oregon will be able to run the ball with any sort of success in this game.

3) Which takes us to Oregon's passing game. Looks like Lowe, who is our best blocking receiver is doubtful. Mariota will need to release the ball quickly and utilize screens / backs. We are going to need that receiver blocking to pick up yardage. I think Oregon struggles here as well this week.

4) UW has some playmakers on offense in Miles and Ross. Their run game is suspect; however the Oregon defense is 10th in the conference against the run, so I expect that UW will have some success here. Oregon is also 10th in total defense, giving up 515 yards per game in conference play, which is beyond terrible.

I pray that I am wrong and that we can pull this one out. However, if I had to bet my house, this is what I would predict:

UW - 28
Oregon - 24

I guess we will find out if I would be homeless on Saturday night. I hope so.

lukeyrid13 · Post by **lukeyrid13** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:31 am

If they play ten times I think Oregon wins 7. Their front seven is very good and will cause disruptions but miles has struggled this year. He could pull a denker sure but if I had to bet, I don't see them out scoring us.

UO-37
Uw- 27

lukeyrid13 · Post by **lukeyrid13** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:31 am

duckfan22 · Post by **duckfan22** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:04 am

I think Oregon wins even tho the puppies have a pretty good front seven. Teams like that are so aggressive trying
to get to Marcus they open big gaps to run through. I think Oregon gets some big runs tomorrow night. I also think we
beat them deep. They are going to try and sell out to stop the zone read. I also think we stop their offense.

UO-42
UW-14

Post by **dthomas=ddixon** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:28 am

I worry that UCLA's incompetence made Oregon look a lot better than they currently are. On the surface it looked like a great win and a great all-around performance. But UCLA has done that to just about everyone they've played this year. I don't have a lot of faith in the coaches right now and I have zero faith in Pellum. We're facing a defense that has potential to shut down our offense and our defense is awful. Not an encouraging combination.

myostduck · Post by **myostduck** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:32 am

While I believe UW will absolutely bring it on Saturday and will cause the Ducks some issues, I have serious doubts about UWs offense. Vegas has the Ducks at -21 which I think is way too high, but with that being said, I see the streak reaching 11 years. I think the crowd will be back to being rabid under the lights, and the defense will step up against a very mediocre unit. I have no respect for any offensive unit on Wash. Receivers can't catch, offensive line is young, and remember what happened the last time a freshman for UW started in Autzen? 53-16. Cyler Miles is an ankle injury away from reaching his final form of Keith Price. Offense will move it early; Helfrich and staff are learning how to coach around the offensive line issues, and UW has no chance at stopping mobile QBs once they start getting outside the pocket. Let's not forget that UWs SIGNATURE WIN ("WE'RE BACK!") was against Cal (scored 24 offensive points on THAT FORMIDABLE CAL D). Impressive. Stanford did everything outside of running backwards into their own endzone to lose in Seattle and Washington couldn't capitalize.

Ducks-35
Huskies-17

OregonFan4Life · Post by **OregonFan4Life** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:18 am

What made Oregon so effective against UCLA was the emergence of Pharaoh Brown. That was by far his best game of the season, and he took Myles Jack out of the game, who very well might be the best LB in the game. That caused UCLA to have troubles putting pressure on Mariota and the running game, so if Brown can put up that type of performance again, then that will help keep Shaq Thompson from making the type of plays he has been.

Also, Washington did good against Cal, but let's be real, Cal's offense beat themselves just as much as Washington's defense did. A stupid fumble one inch away from the endzone, like 3 total redzone turnovers, two failed 4th down conversions in the red zones, it was like watching Stanford vs USC.

Washington is very good, but they haven't played an offense like Oregon yet. Look at how many points they gave up against Eastern Washington. Now with all that, it all comes down to the coaches. If the coaches take this seriously and coach aggressively like they did against UCLA, then I do think Oregon wins. Oregon has the best player in the country and is the more talented team. But will the coaches properly utilize that? Oregon was more talented than Arizona even without Fisher and it didn't matter. If the coaches come out with another vanilla game plan like they did against WSU and Arizona, then yes, Washington will win, but if they come out with a game plan like they did against MSU and UCLA, then unless Oregon's players decided to play with their heads up their buts, Oregon will win.

I too am very worried about this game, I almost have this feeling that karma is going to hurt Oregon with all of this attention that's being paid to the pick and the throwback jerseys and stuff. For some reason my head is saying Oregon wins but my stomach is saying Washington wins.

OregonFan4Life · Post by **OregonFan4Life** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:28 am

What I'll be looking to most for this game is 3rd downs. Currently, Oregon is 114th in the nation on 3rd down defense while Washington is 92nd in 3rd down conversion rates on offense. On the other side, Washington is 36th in 3rd down defense while Oregon is 27th in 3rd down conversion rates on offense. Can Oregon's defense keep Washington from converting 3rd downs and sustaining long drives? If so, then Oregon's offense will have more chances to score, and that's has caused problems for this Oregon team in the past, is the inability of the defense to get off of the field after 3rd down plays.

QuackininBama · Post by **QuackininBama** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:12 pm

Washingtons defense is still a ? While you can point to statistics, numbers, sacks, tackles and how impressive it looks, keep in mind, they have played:

Hawaii
E Washington
Illinois
Georgia State
Stanford
California

We all know Stanford is the real deal and they gave up 365 yards of offense to a very pedestrian Stanford offense. Since I don't know what to make of Cal its difficult to call Washingtons defense "good" at this point. What I do know is Cal has given up 24, 14, 45, 56, and 59 points and they only gave up 31 to Washington. There is no transitive property in football, but until I see them play a decent team (which is obviously us first), I simply cannot fear that defense.

fpsduck · Post by **fpsduck** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:23 pm

Based on the road team record in conference games this year being 15-4, I take the Fuskies.

OregonFan4Life · Post by **OregonFan4Life** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:29 pm

Wow and I thought the quadruple post on the other thread was legendary!

EncinitasDuck · Post by **EncinitasDuck** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:07 pm

myostduck wrote:While I believe UW will absolutely bring it on Saturday and will cause the Ducks some issues, I have serious doubts about UWs offense. Vegas has the Ducks at -21 which I think is way too high, but with that being said, I see the streak reaching 11 years. I think the crowd will be back to being rabid under the lights, and the defense will step up against a very mediocre unit. I have no respect for any offensive unit on Wash. Receivers can't catch, offensive line is young, and remember what happened the last time a freshman for UW started in Autzen? 53-16. Cyler Miles is an ankle injury away from reaching his final form of Keith Price. Offense will move it early; Helfrich and staff are learning how to coach around the offensive line issues, and UW has no chance at stopping mobile QBs once they start getting outside the pocket. Let's not forget that UWs SIGNATURE WIN ("WE'RE BACK!") was against Cal (scored 24 offensive points on THAT FORMIDABLE CAL D). Impressive. Stanford did everything outside of running backwards into their own endzone to lose in Seattle and Washington couldn't capitalize.

Ducks-35
Huskies-17

Funny that you think -21 is "way too high" but you have the Ducks winning by 18.

pezsez1 · Post by **pezsez1** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:35 pm

Ducks are gonna roll.

The Huskies are solid defensively, but not great. They haven't succeeded against a quality opponent. The most Oregon-like team they played totally lit them up.

Also, we have the same O-line that gashed Michigan State for three quarters (and dominated UCLA). Our O-line is back to being a strength.

Also, Helfrich making Freeman the man at RB paid off against UCLA... look for that to continue against UW.

UofDuck · Post by **UofDuck** » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:01 am

Vegas has us as 20 point favorites, so I suspect subjectivity should consider the actual odds of the outcome too.

Phenom · Post by **Phenom** » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:31 am

northbeachsf wrote:As a Duck fan, I would almost rather see UW lose then Oregon win...almost. I will have all my Duck gear on on Saturday and will be chearing for my team. However, I am very concerned about this game for a number of reasons. Which brings me to my question:

If you were forced to be COMPLETELY OBJECTIVE and you had to bet you house on this game, who would you take?

It makes me sick to my stomach to say this, but I think I would have to take UW right now. Here is why:

1) UW's front seven is probably playing better than any unit in the Pac-12 right now. They are No.1 in the conference in scoring defense and No. 2 in total defense. As one of the other posters pointed out in another thread - Kikaha is no. 2 in the country in sacks; Shelton is no. 6.; and Shaq Thompson as a Linebacker has five td's on the year. Did you see what these guys did to Cal's offense? It was impressive.

2) Oregon's line could not block a chair right now. I know Fisher is back and they did a decent job against UCLA, but in case you have not noticed...UCLA's defense is by far the worst in the conference, so I don't know how much you can read into that. I see very little chance that Oregon will be able to run the ball with any sort of success in this game.

3) Which takes us to Oregon's passing game. Looks like Lowe, who is our best blocking receiver is doubtful. Mariota will need to release the ball quickly and utilize screens / backs. We are going to need that receiver blocking to pick up yardage. I think Oregon struggles here as well this week.

4) UW has some playmakers on offense in Miles and Ross. Their run game is suspect; however the Oregon defense is 10th in the conference against the run, so I expect that UW will have some success here. Oregon is also 10th in total defense, giving up 515 yards per game in conference play, which is beyond terrible.

I pray that I am wrong and that we can pull this one out. However, if I had to bet my house, this is what I would predict:

UW - 28
Oregon - 24

I guess we will find out if I would be homeless on Saturday night. I hope so.

You are wrong...just telling you now.