Analysis: Debunking the Myths surrounding VERNON ADAMS

[FishDuck]

Hey guys; I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I had fun studying for it and writing it. Yeah…I went “all-in” and made some over-the-top predictions, but it is what I feel, thus sharing with you.

http://fishduck.com/2015/07/analysis-de ... non-adams/

[karlhungis]

Looks good. I am curious to see how he does with a full offense at his disposal. I am also curious if he ever makes it on campus though....

[GoDucksIn09]

I enjoyed reading the article BUTTTTTTTTTTTT.... as I said before... he has to get on campus first. All the talk of how good he may or may not be is totally irrelevant until he gets on campus. I started out as a person that was intrigued by him and wondered how he would fit in our offense. Some 2 or 3 months later I am now at the point I am wondering if the guy will even get to be on the field on the sidelines let alone play a single down in a meaningful game. I am almost to the point until he actually is enrolled and participating with the other players may not read any more articles. I think there are probably lots of ducks fans who are getting a little bit tired of all the delay in him getting here. I wonder if this whole charade is having any impact on the qb's working during the summer routines who are wondering have they forgotten about the qb's who are already here? I will get off my soapbox now. Sorry for my rant.

[Alan]

Don't feel bad about your rant, I feel the same way as you and some others here, you said it very well. My take, He's a graduating senior, he wants to move to a new team. He's old enough to know the simple rules, first you need to graduate, then you can worry about the rest. Meaning passing that math class should have been more important than anything else. Don't worry about conditioning alone in Chaney, graduate get to Oregon early summer and have two extra months to get back in shape. He simply put the cart before the horse and now my confidence in him is wavering.

Who knows he may get things done, get to practice and blow everyone's socks off.

[FishDuck]

....as this is where is pays to be an old fart like me.

I will not tell you the source, except to say that is truthful. In 1994 we won the conference and went to our first Rose Bowl in 30 years..and it was a huge watershed year for Oregon. But the summer before...the summer of '94, we had EIGHT football players who had to go to summer school and they were taking one to three classes each. These players were the heart of the team and they had to pass EVERY class.

They did.

I believe that one frichen' guy will pass one frichen' class which is why I did not waste time on it in the analysis.

FD

[GrandpaDuck]

I watched VA Play in about 5 Big Sky games and of course I have seen the OSU and UW games. I wasn't scouting him, its just that the Root channel shows Big Sky repeats at night and I have frequent insomnia.

My observations about him, made before there was the slightest hint he might ever play at Oregon were as follows.

He is a big game player in that he looked better against the 2 PAC-12 opponents then he did in the Big Sky games, not that he was bad in those games, just he excelled in those 2 Big Games.

He is streaky in his passing. When he gets hot he hits everything but he also has cold streaks where the ball is flying everywhere.

Any EWU QB is going to throw for a ton of yards, like the Air Raid and Bear Raid QBs do. It is a good passing system, and the EWU receivers are way above the average Big Sky DBs in athletic talent. I saw him throw a ton of jump balls and his receivers just outman the Big Sky DBs on contested balls.

He is very shifty but seemed small and slow. He can juke like crazy but wont beat many PAC-12 linebackers in a foot race to the edge.


Since Fishduck stood up and made a prediction, I'll make mine and include my confidence level in my predictions.

Making it into UO, YES (80%)

Beating Out Jeff Lockie: YES (80%) I think it will be an open competition in name only, like Eddie Pleasant being given his starting safety spot in exchange for his position change.

Oregon win 10+ games: YES (60%) I think the Oregon offense will be good enough to win 10+ games with either QB, but I suspect the Oregon secondary will be dreadful this year leading to some lose-able shootouts or my confidence in that prediction would be much higher.

VA being 1st or 2nd Pac-12 QB: NO (90%)

VA winning the Heisman: NO (99.9%)

[Alan]

I watched VA Play in about 5 Big Sky games and of course I have seen the OSU and UW games. I wasn't scouting him, its just that the Root channel shows Big Sky repeats at night and I have frequent insomnia.

My observations about him, made before there was the slightest hint he might ever play at Oregon were as follows.

He is a big game player in that he looked better against the 2 PAC-12 opponents then he did in the Big Sky games, not that he was bad in those games, just he excelled in those 2 Big Games.

He is streaky in his passing. When he gets hot he hits everything but he also has cold streaks where the ball is flying everywhere.

Any EWU QB is going to throw for a ton of yards, like the Air Raid and Bear Raid QBs do. It is a good passing system, and the EWU receivers are way above the average Big Sky DBs in athletic talent. I saw him throw a ton of jump balls and his receivers just outman the Big Sky DBs on contested balls.

He is very shifty but seemed small and slow. He can juke like crazy but wont beat many PAC-12 linebackers in a foot race to the edge.


Since Fishduck stood up and made a prediction, I'll make mine and include my confidence level in my predictions.

Making it into UO, YES (80%)

Beating Out Jeff Lockie: YES (80%) I think it will be an open competition in name only, like Eddie Pleasant being given his starting safety spot in exchange for his position change.

Oregon win 10+ games: YES (60%) I think the Oregon offense will be good enough to win 10+ games with either QB, but I suspect the Oregon secondary will be dreadful this year leading to some lose-able shootouts or my confidence in that prediction would be much higher.

VA being 1st or 2nd Pac-12 QB: NO (90%)

VA winning the Heisman: NO (99.9%)

Excellent response, IMO, I agree With everything but your predictions. VA has said himself he is slow and small and I had to give his wr's a bunch of credit for the completions in the two pac 12 games. I did wonder about his overall accuracy, he'll face a much different talent level in the Pac 12. My predictions in a second.

First I want to say Charles is always one of my favorite reads, a dependable journalist/blogger. I get a media member that gives a twisted versions of the facts he's done with me. Thank you Charles for your reporting and opinions.

Will VA make it to Uof O, yes (70%)

Will he beat out Lockie no (60%)

Will he replace Lockie mid season (50/50)

Ducks win 10+ games yes (85%)

Pac 12 QB (0%)

Heisman ( )

[northbeachsf]

I wanna play:

1) Will VA make it to UofO - YES (95% confident). He sounds like he is where he needs to be and it will happen

2) Will he beat out Lockie before MSU - NO (70% confident) He missed all of summer and it sounds like he will be late to fall camp.

3) Will he replace Lockie sometime after MSU - YES (80% confident) He is too athletic to keep off the field. Eventually, he will get is shot. Georgia State looks like a good bet.

4) Ducks win 10+ games - YES (70% confident) - at MSU, at ASU, at Stanford, and USC will all be very tough. Hopefully we can get two of those, which should be enough to win the North.

5) Ducks will return to the playoffs - NO (80% confident) schedule is tough with questions at QB, CB, and LB. I think they drop 2 games this year. I hope I am wrong, but.....

6) Top QB in the Pac-12 - NO (95% confident) I don't think he will even start the first two games and he is up against some great QBs

Heisman - NO (99% confident)

That being said, I think it will be a great year. Oregon has some amazing talent, so it will be fun to watch. If I had to bet, I would say 10 wins is reasonable, but hopefully we can overcome some questions and get to 12 or 13.

Go Ducks!!

[timberduck]

I think whoever starts Week 1 will be our guy for the season, barring injury/catastrophic failure.

It would be too much of a distraction to start Lockie and then pull him if we lose to MSU.

[UOducksTK1]

1) Will VA make it to UofO - YES (99% confident). If KOD says he'll be here, then I believe it.

2) Will he beat out Lockie before MSU - YES (85% confident) While he's missed some time this summer, the dude is coming in knowing the stakes. He will be physically and mentally prepared. Give him a couple weeks during the fall, and he'll hit the ground running.

3) Will he replace Lockie sometime after MSU - YES (100% confident) Assuming he does good against MSU

4) Ducks win 10+ games - YES (80% confident) - at MSU, at ASU, at Stanford, and USC will all be very tough. Agreed with that statement, but a bowl game always helps push us over the top.

5) Ducks will return to the playoffs - NO (90% confident) Just don't see it happening.

6) Top QB in the Pac-12 - NO (95% confident) I think VA will be a better option than Lockie in the end, but he's also no Mariota.

Heisman - NO (100% confident) Nope

[FishDuck]

...I did not predict VA to win the Heisman, but if he has the season that I believe he can? He will be a finalist as I wrote.

[buckmarkduck]

1- yes 90%
2-beat out Lockie 110% yes
3- if he doesn't beat out Lockie for the MSU game, do we get beat like a drum 99% yes

He won't lead the Pac 12 in yards or anything, unless Goff plays in a bunch of rain games.
But I disagree that he isn't accurate, he completed 67% of his passes last year and we all know our O gets WR open in space.

I've said from the beginning, if we win and VA puts up the numbers, ESPN will get him to NY. They will fall all over him all year, do to his moving up.

[UOducksTK1]

1- yes 90%
2-beat out Lockie 110% yes
3- if he doesn't beat out Lockie for the MSU game, do we get beat like a drum 99% yes

He won't lead the Pac 12 in yards or anything, unless Goff plays in a bunch of rain games.
But I disagree that he isn't accurate, he completed 67% of his passes last year and we all know our O gets WR open in space.

I've said from the beginning, if we win and VA puts up the numbers, ESPN will get him to NY. They will fall all over him all year, do to his moving up.

I'll hold judgement until fall camps / season begins, but I do know that he had some pretty awesome WRs for FCS. I'm sure they helped him look better.

[FishDuck]

"I'll wait for fall practice." "I'm saying 70% chance of this, and 60% chance of that.

Geez. Grow a pair.

State what VA is going to do or don't waste our time. When you write that "he has a 70% chance of _____," then you have protected yourself no matter what. You can say later that "obviously he was in the 30%, so I am right." You covered yourself both ways.

I have flat-out put myself out there with no damn percentages.

Don't compare yourself to me if you do not have the balls. I am willing to state with my name what I believe and be publicly WRONG.

I am very disappointed with this site.

FD

[Alan]