Analysis: Debunking the Myths surrounding VERNON ADAMS

[Cedar Tree]

Great analysis FishDuck!

Here's my prediction- Adams will be the starter and put up solid numbers, but at some point during the season he'll get injured and have to sit for 2-3 games. He ends up being one of the top QBs in the Pac-12, but not a Heisman finalist. He'll finish with about 10 fewer touchdown passes than Mariota and about double the interceptions- I'll say 32 TDs and 8 INTs.

When it comes to predicting Adams' success, one thing that I think is being overlooked is all the talent around him. He's got two outstanding tailbacks, a plethora of great receivers, and I believe we'll have a pretty damn solid O line this year despite losing Grasu, Fisher, and Stevens.

[dd10snoop28]

HAHAHA! FishDuck, love your input.

[srsmiley007]

Great analysis FishDuck!

Here's my prediction- Adams will be the starter and put up solid numbers, but at some point during the season he'll get injured and have to sit for 2-3 games. He ends up being one of the top QBs in the Pac-12, but not a Heisman finalist. He'll finish with about 10 fewer touchdown passes than Mariota and about double the interceptions- I'll say 32 TDs and 8 INTs.

When it comes to predicting Adams' success, one thing that I think is being overlooked is all the talent around him. He's got two outstanding tailbacks, a plethora of great receivers, and I believe we'll have a pretty damn solid O line this year despite losing Grasu, Fisher, and Stevens.

I'm with your analysis much more than Grandpa. - Good job Fishduck. No offense grandpa but I too have watched his film and unfortunately, I think you're inaccurate in your understanding of what you see on TV and real skill assessment. When you say he sprayed the ball they were highly rushed throws that were thrown to where only his receiver had an opportunity to make the catch. That is actually a higher level skill than is typically exhibited by the average college quarterback. Great quarterbacks only throw where their receiver can make the catch. That's the delta between exceptional quarterbacks and avg. QB's. He had a couple of games where he had a 55-56% completion ratio which based upon the number of passes thrown and limited success running the ball against pass designed defensive alignments is actually encouraging in part that his only "bad" game was against I-AA runner-up Illinois which stuffed their running game early and struggled to stop the ball control offense of EWU.

- Shows an extremely quick release, strong arm and an ability to read defenses and anticipate throws, which is why experts are geeked up over his arrival. Shows better than average footwork and focuses downfield while moving around. Will be playing against larger/faster competition so adjusting to throwing lines and closing speed of the safeties may impact his success a touch but after 2 or 3 games he should be settle in quite well. Fishducks analysis is spot-on. What will dictate the possibility of the Heisman is more than likely the OL, LB and DB play by the team which will likely be better than anticipated. MSU will tell us a lot.

[northbeachsf]

LOL...fair enough...updated:

1) Will VA make it to UofO - Absolutely. He sounds like he is where he needs to be and it will happen.

2) Will he beat out Lockie to start the season - NO. He missed all of summer and it sounds like he will be late to fall camp.

3) Will he replace Lockie sometime after MSU - YES. He is too athletic to keep off the field. He will get his shot against Georgia State and will start the rest of the year.

4) Ducks win 10+ games - YES. They will drop games to USC and MSU. However, they win the North and the CCG (2nd game against USC).

5) Ducks will return to the playoffs - NO. Two losses won't cut it for a Pac-12 team.

6) Top QB in the Pac-12 - NO. Too big of a learing curve and Goff, Kessler, and Falk will put up huge numbers. Fourth place at best statistically.

7) Heisman - NO. Eventually enters the discussion late, but will not get an invite to NY.

"I'll wait for fall practice." "I'm saying 70% chance of this, and 60% chance of that.

Geez. Grow a pair.

State what VA is going to do or don't waste our time. When you write that "he has a 70% chance of _____," then you have protected yourself no matter what. You can say later that "obviously he was in the 30%, so I am right." You covered yourself both ways.

I have flat-out put myself out there with no damn percentages.

Don't compare yourself to me if you do not have the balls. I am willing to state with my name what I believe and be publicly WRONG.

I am very disappointed with this site.

FD

[duck58]

I like FD s comments. Makes me skeptically optimistic. I want to see him in action at this level first. He's not competing against MM so I don't really care about comparisons. My Predictions.

1. VA gets here. 100%
2. VA wins QB position. 100%
3. VA does not break MMs records. There will be enough big wins that Lockie plays more as a backup.
4. VA does not win Heisman nor is finalist.
5. VA is best QB in PAC-12 ?
6. Ducks win PAC-12. Quite sure. 80%
7. Ducks return to playoffs. Win PAC-12 and they will. So 80%

[Phalanx]

"I'll wait for fall practice." "I'm saying 70% chance of this, and 60% chance of that.

Geez. Grow a pair.

State what VA is going to do or don't waste our time. When you write that "he has a 70% chance of _____," then you have protected yourself no matter what. You can say later that "obviously he was in the 30%, so I am right." You covered yourself both ways.

I have flat-out put myself out there with no damn percentages.

Don't compare yourself to me if you do not have the balls. I am willing to state with my name what I believe and be publicly WRONG.

I am very disappointed with this site.

FD

Hilarious

I find silliness in both percentages and crystal ball-like predictions, but that is what being a fan and posting in July on a forum is all about. I appreciate that you think you are risking a lot by making defined predictions, but really, you're just another dude posting about sports. It's not like you are a GM having to make actual decisions,etc. You aren't really risking much, other than a few "I told you so's".

I don't happen to think that Adams will be the world-beater that you do. My own opinion is that Mariota was an incredibly efficient quarterback who could also run like the wind, and yet we still had trouble with MSU last year at home, still lost to Arizona, and still got hammered by Ohio State. Adams has had nothing like that kind of efficiency or running ability, and although I think he will have a better team around him than Mariota had, it seems unlikely that he will enjoy the same kind of success, and that's if he even wins the starting gig, which seems less and less like a slam dunk the longer he delays in joining the team.

Anyway, that's why we play the games, nobody knows how it will play out for sure. Hopefully, out team is better than everyone expects this year. We still have one rung to climb on the ladder, and hopefully that opportunity comes again soon.