NDSU/OREGON 2020

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JBB
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by JBB »

Interesting.

Going into this weeks game the GAM has:

Oregon -5, O/U 51; Mythical Score Oregon 28-23

It would be interesting to see how Oregon would do in The Fabulous Fargo Dome, one of College Footballs best venues according to ESPN. At #39 in Sagarin and no benefit for strength of schedule like Minnesota and Oregon, the Bison are right up there with the best teams The Ducks have beaten this season.

This week The Gam has NDSU a 4 pt favorite over the Gophers 22-18. The Gophers were very lucky indeed to get by South Dakota State earlier this season. They wouldn't get by NDSU. Thats why they schedule everybody but NDSU.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by JBB »

Two successful games last week leave the forecast unchanged:

Oregon Ducks -5; O/U 51; Mythical score: Oregon 28 NDSU 23

I noticed an 80% cap was used this week to account for strength of schedule and perceived talent disparities. That's questionable. Without it the game is forecast NDSU 28-25

With NDSU at 35 on Sagarin, if they were to play today, The Bison would come to Autzen Stadium as one of the strongest teams on the schedule so far.

On your schedule so far this year we saw
  • Auburn #13 L 21-27
    Nevada #108 W 77-6
    Montana #81 W 35-3
    Stanford #69 W 21-6
    California #58 W 17-7
    Colorado #75 W 45-3
    Washington #17 W 35-31
    Washington State #38 W 37-35 (looks a lot like the NDSU game)
    USC #23 W 56-24
    Arizona #82 W 34-6
Your games are the last games of day out here and if only for that reason we like to watch them at the end of our day.
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GoDucksTroll
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GoDucksTroll »

This is gonna be the longest game thread I’ve ever seen - and I’m liking it.

Craziest metric I saw this week: Connelly’s S&P+ has 6-4 Washington a few spots ahead of Oregon.
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greenyellow
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by greenyellow »

This likely won't end up as the game thread.
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GoDucksTroll
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GoDucksTroll »

greenyellow wrote:This likely won't end up as the game thread.
Aww, keep this up as the game thread come September 2020 - it’s cute.
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Alan
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Alan »

GoDucksTroll wrote:
greenyellow wrote:This likely won't end up as the game thread.
Aww, keep this up as the game thread come September 2020 - it’s cute.
:shock: Lol!
ATLBison
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ATLBison »

Alan wrote:
GoDucksTroll wrote:
greenyellow wrote:This likely won't end up as the game thread.
Aww, keep this up as the game thread come September 2020 - it’s cute.
:shock: Lol!

Trust me, we want a record for posterity purposes ourselves.
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

Ouch. Tough loss tonight to ASU. I didn't watch the game, but have to imagine either Oregon wasn't playing up to standards or ASU was on fire. Or both?

For what it's worth, NDSU is rated higher in both Sagarin and Massey than ASU right now. Any given Saturday, eh?

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by FlDuckFan »

thebootfitter wrote:Ouch. Tough loss tonight to ASU. I didn't watch the game, but have to imagine either Oregon wasn't playing up to standards or ASU was on fire. Or both?

For what it's worth, NDSU is rated higher in both Sagarin and Massey than ASU right now. Any given Saturday, eh?

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Oregon has had a tendency to play down/up to the opponents level. Rarely has the offense seemed to click, even the Nevada game there was a lot of help from the defense.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ATLBison »

Duck07 wrote:
lmduck wrote:this may not come across in the best possible way in print, but why are we even spending time on this when there are three games left in this season?????

I get that its message board fodder and fun, but just seems like there are better things to discuss.

No personal attack intended and hopefully does not come across that way because that is not the intent at all.
You mean like how Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself?

I see this is as a fun opportunity to have some playful shade with our Bison friends of whom we can both have mad respect for the quality of their program while being dismissive of them at the same time, especially the proprietary algorithm which has this game being so close.
It's a game that both teams can "win" in the sense that we can still blow them out and they can still come off as a great program. It's also a game where we don't have to poop our pants as bad as we did against Indiana to lose either.
Yeah, you play like you did this weekend and I guarantee we leave Eugene with a W. I’ve already bet a decent amount on this game, but apparently there is more to be had. No one blows out NDSU. If you think so, What do you consider a blow out?


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Duck07
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Duck07 »

ATLBison wrote: Yeah, you play like you did this weekend and I guarantee we leave Eugene with a W. I’ve already bet a decent amount on this game, but apparently there is more to be had. No one blows out NDSU. If you think so, What do you consider a blow out?
I'd say that losing by 28+ (like you will), probably closer to 35+ would be a blowout. Your offense is going to look even worse than ours did last weekend in that game.
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JBB
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by JBB »

I didnt get to see the AZU game either but was disappointed. That loss probably puts to rest The Ducks drive to the Large Stadium D1 National Collegiate Football Championship. The BISON are still alive in their bid for an 8th or 9th (I would have to check) Small Stadium Division 1 National College Football Championship with a pedestrian win over a stout Southern Illinois team.

Both teams had below average outings weakening their relative strength indexes but Oregon maintains the 5 point advantage they have had since Nov 9. It is deteriorating though and required a rounding up to the next whole number for the Ducks to stay -5.

Mythical score: NDSU 22.53 Oregon 27.63 say 27-22 oregon (use the fractions when deciding over/under). Without adjustment for obvious resource, strength of schedule and scholarships it is NDSU 28.16 Oregon 24.63. GAM Labs is using an 80% cap again this week for strength of schedule. Im guessing they may ease up on that once NDSU starts its playoff run in 2 weeks. The Bison are idle this week.

Lets hope there is at least one defending Division 1 College Football Champion on the field when the Bison roll in to Autzen. It will be a little more interesting to the casual fan and may get this game coast to coast tv coverage. Maybe Game Day?

If it were 2 defending Division 1 National Collegiate Football Champions meeting it would be a huge game for the entire nation that's for sure!

If anyones interested the ruckus journey through NDSUs 2019 season and GAM Labs take on the games they are following you can find it here in the MVFC threads. Currently:

https://championshipsubdivision.com/for ... =4&t=51125
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

Duck07 wrote:
ATLBison wrote: Yeah, you play like you did this weekend and I guarantee we leave Eugene with a W. I’ve already bet a decent amount on this game, but apparently there is more to be had. No one blows out NDSU. If you think so, What do you consider a blow out?
I'd say that losing by 28+ (like you will), probably closer to 35+ would be a blowout. Your offense is going to look even worse than ours did last weekend in that game.
Not sure if you're serious or just fanning the flames here, but I'm not a betting man and I'd be willing to put money on the line if you're willing to back this up with cash.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ATLBison »

thebootfitter wrote:
Duck07 wrote:
ATLBison wrote: Yeah, you play like you did this weekend and I guarantee we leave Eugene with a W. I’ve already bet a decent amount on this game, but apparently there is more to be had. No one blows out NDSU. If you think so, What do you consider a blow out?
I'd say that losing by 28+ (like you will), probably closer to 35+ would be a blowout. Your offense is going to look even worse than ours did last weekend in that game.
Not sure if you're serious or just fanning the flames here, but I'm not a betting man and I'd be willing to put money on the line if you're willing to back this up with cash.
You name an amount and I’ll bet it at 27.5. Not even close to joking.


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thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

ATLBison wrote:You name an amount and I’ll bet it at 27.5. Not even close to joking.
Who are you talking to? Duck07? Or me?

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