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NDSU/OREGON 2020
http://www.ducksattack.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=33010
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Author:  ncduck [ Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Is anyone still on the NDSU roster from 2016 win over 8-5 Iowa? Will any of those world beaters still be around next year?

Author:  thebootfitter [ Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

ncduck wrote:
Is anyone still on the NDSU roster from 2016 win over 8-5 Iowa? Will any of those world beaters still be around next year?
No. Our current team would likely beat the 2016 team. Our 2020 team should be much improved over this year.

(Edited to add: Perhaps I shouldn't say no so quickly, as I haven't researched extensively. There are probably at least one or two who were freshman in 2016 that will still be around in 2020. But as far as the core of the team who actually saw the field in 2016, I don't think there will still be anyone on the roster in 2020.)

Author:  thebootfitter [ Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

One of our biggest rivals in FCS (South Dakota State) lost narrowly to Minnesota earlier this year. Probably should have won, but couldn't pull it off when it mattered.

Not that I think Minnesota is as stellar this year as their shiny record indicates, but they've certainly improved over the course of the season. We'll see this weekend how they stack up to a quality program.

Anyhoo... Watching that MN vs SDSU game, it's pretty clear that the Bison would have beat them both. And they did get a chance to beat SDSU a couple weeks ago.

Our QB is a redshirt freshman and getting some attention in Heisman talk (https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/HeismanWatch190903/heisman-watch-jalen-tops-tua-first-vote). He'll never win, but the fact that he's even somewhere on the radar is pretty incredible. He's pretty good and will only get better. Oh, and he will very possibly be our third QB in a row to get drafted to the NFL.

The rest of our team is very young. We were expected to lose a few games this year during our "rebuilding" year. The only game we've really been challenged is South Dakota State. We do lose a couple playmakers to graduation, but have more than enough depth to make up for them next year, I think.

I would guess that next year's team could probably be competitive with all but a handful of FBS teams. We'll see whether Oregon is among that group when the time comes.

Author:  buckmarkduck [ Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

We would beat Minny by 35, stop trying to compare us to that slop.

Author:  thebootfitter [ Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

buckmarkduck wrote:
We would beat Minny by 35, stop trying to compare us to that slop.
Who compared you to the Goophers?

You compared NDSU to a Chihuahua. I'm just pointing out that it is not a valid comparison. Maybe more like a 40 lb wiry mutt to your 85 lb American Bully.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Author:  thebootfitter [ Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

I'm not fully sold yet, but perhaps it is possible that Minnesota is better than we gave them credit for. Penn State isn't playing their best right now, but Minnesota is certainly outshining them thus far.

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Author:  buckmarkduck [ Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Lol. Maybe minny is better than I thought.

Author:  thebootfitter [ Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

buckmarkduck wrote:
Lol. Maybe minny is better than I thought.
I think they have some decent talent behind a pretty good coaching staff. Combined with the confidence that comes from winning eight straight and a humbleness to stay hungry, they are definitely outperforming expectations.

It would be fun to see their defense against Oregon's offense. And vice versa for that matter.

Not that this thread is about the Goophers, but if they win out and beat Ohio State in the B1G championship game... I think they'd have to be in the playoffs, no? (I can't imagine that happening realistically, but I was also predicting a 2+ TD win by Penn State today.)

Author:  JBB [ Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

GrandpaDuck wrote:
I welcome the presence of our Bovinae overlords. As long as they don't mind responses often coming days late I would be glad to converse with them here on the this thread so no one else need feel obligated.

My first question is for our forecast model generator. How does your model account for results generated by players who wont be here the next year? Do you assume that both teams are plug and play systems that will produce the same results with the replacement players as those playing this year?


Excellent question!

We are looking for the winner, appropriate spread and over/under. These are the basic wagering numbers.

For average first games in the stack it’s plug and play. It’s enough to expose miss-priced odds in one of the 3 categories and reveals winners at a surprising rate

This is a big game that will get national attention. Currently we are tracking how the teams match-up each week. Normally the system relies on the schools program arc. Yours is successful as is NDSUs. Replacements will probably be at least avg. in an otherwise strong line-up.

It becomes an intangible for teams not having a history of success but not for teams like Oregon and NDSU.

sometimes an exceptional player is gone. there is an expected net change between them and the replacement. This happened with the graduation of Carson Wenrz.

A lot of production graduated. For this season all of the Wentz game production was removed and replaced with average QB production stats for the MVFC for the first game. After that the team is on its own, no more adjustment for QB.

This is subjective but not guessed. It is done on both sides of the ball for big games.

At the end of this season the early line will be set for this game. GAM Labs will issue its final line week of game.

I’m keeping you posted because I’m hoping to get insights into the Oregon changes to dial this contraption in a bit for the Big Game.

Author:  ATLBison [ Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Pretty excited for this one. First and foremost, THANK YOU to Oregon for scheduling this game! We can't get them anymore. We do have a little brother complex. This little brother is cheering on Oregon harder than you can possibly imagine. Obviously your chances are "outside" at best at making the CFP, but we really hope you get to at least 5th place.

That being said, all we ask is one simple thing and we're quite serious about this... IF we beat you (I'm biased and won't start any arguements because it's all lost on deaf ears), but if we beat you, you aren't allowed to make excuses. We get it, we're the little guy, and we don't stand a chance. However, nothing is more frustrating than earning a win and then hearing hot take excuses:

1. We would have killed you with Herbert
2. The refs were terrible
3. NDSU didn't win, we shot ourselves in the foot
4. We were off our game today
5. Ducks would beat you 9/10 times
6. You couldn't compete in a full season at the P5 level, you don't have the depth (this one's my personal favorite considering our program is literally built on depth)

You promise that and we'll respect your fanbase no matter what happens. In the eyes of most we haven't earned our respect. We won't until we move up. Everyone says we need to and I agree, but it requires an invite from a conference, which we've never gotten. With that said you need to understand, NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS. I know you'll scoff and laugh at that and you have every right to your opinion. However, a 122-8 record since 2011, 6 consecutive FBS wins, and a HUGE lack of returned phone calls by FBS AD's proves otherwise pretty convincingly.

So my point comes full circle, THANK YOU FOR SCHEDULING THIS GAME! It will be the biggest in our program's history. So for the next few games I think all of Bison Nation is with me when I say GO DUCKS! We'll be "Throwing Our O" for you for the rest of 2019. Nothing would please us more than if you went all the way!

Author:  thebootfitter [ Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

ATLBison wrote:
NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS. I know you'll scoff and laugh at that and you have every right to your opinion. However, a 122-8 record since 2011, 6 consecutive FBS wins, and a HUGE lack of returned phone calls by FBS AD's proves otherwise pretty convincingly.

Ha ha! That's crazy talk. Your "data points" presented don't do anything to support the position that NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team.

Those FBS wins were largely against pretty middling FBS teams -- Iowa 2016 and K-State 2013 being the exceptions. And it is pretty easy to argue that an Iowa team that finished 8-5 should have never been ranked #13 to start the season.

The shiny 122-8 record is largely against FCS competition. Even if the top FCS teams could (and do) compete favorably against pretty decent P-5 teams, it's still not valid to use a record against lesser competition to support the idea that we'd be a top 10-15 FBS team. (See UCF.)



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Author:  ATLBison [ Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Then I guess you should have no problem handling us, right? What happens if we win? Do we get your respect as a top 10 college football team period or will we hear another barrage of excuses?

Author:  thebootfitter [ Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

ATLBison wrote:
Then I guess you should have no problem handling us, right? What happens if we win? Do we get your respect as a top 10 college football team period or will we hear another barrage of excuses?
Dude. You're worse than Lakes. I'm a fellow Bison fan. I just happen to be a little more rational than you are presenting yourself to be so far.

Even if Oregon finishes the season at #1 this year and we beat them next year, it doesn't mean we are a top 10-15 FBS team. It just means that we beat one of the best FBS teams.

I think we can generally be competitive with anyone outside the top 5-10 FBS teams each year, and there is data to support that. But to say that we are a top 10-15 FBS team requires a lot more data or support than you've been able to provide thus far.

Author:  GrandpaDuck [ Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

ATLBison wrote:
Pretty excited for this one. First and foremost, THANK YOU to Oregon for scheduling this game! We can't get them anymore. We do have a little brother complex. This little brother is cheering on Oregon harder than you can possibly imagine. Obviously your chances are "outside" at best at making the CFP, but we really hope you get to at least 5th place.

That being said, all we ask is one simple thing and we're quite serious about this... IF we beat you (I'm biased and won't start any arguements because it's all lost on deaf ears), but if we beat you, you aren't allowed to make excuses. We get it, we're the little guy, and we don't stand a chance. However, nothing is more frustrating than earning a win and then hearing hot take excuses:

1. We would have killed you with Herbert
2. The refs were terrible
3. NDSU didn't win, we shot ourselves in the foot
4. We were off our game today
5. Ducks would beat you 9/10 times
6. You couldn't compete in a full season at the P5 level, you don't have the depth (this one's my personal favorite considering our program is literally built on depth)

You promise that and we'll respect your fanbase no matter what happens. In the eyes of most we haven't earned our respect. We won't until we move up. Everyone says we need to and I agree, but it requires an invite from a conference, which we've never gotten. With that said you need to understand, NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS. I know you'll scoff and laugh at that and you have every right to your opinion. However, a 122-8 record since 2011, 6 consecutive FBS wins, and a HUGE lack of returned phone calls by FBS AD's proves otherwise pretty convincingly.

So my point comes full circle, THANK YOU FOR SCHEDULING THIS GAME! It will be the biggest in our program's history. So for the next few games I think all of Bison Nation is with me when I say GO DUCKS! We'll be "Throwing Our O" for you for the rest of 2019. Nothing would please us more than if you went all the way!


Hell, Oregon Women's Basketball just beat the dynastic USA National team and we had posters making excuses for ..... the National team.

You'll get no such empty promise from me. The most I'll give you is a "thanks" for pre-writing my sour grapes post. Cutting and pasting will save me some time if it comes to that.

Author:  FlDuckFan [ Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

ATLBison wrote:
Pretty excited for this one. First and foremost, THANK YOU to Oregon for scheduling this game! We can't get them anymore. We do have a little brother complex. This little brother is cheering on Oregon harder than you can possibly imagine. Obviously your chances are "outside" at best at making the CFP, but we really hope you get to at least 5th place.

That being said, all we ask is one simple thing and we're quite serious about this... IF we beat you (I'm biased and won't start any arguements because it's all lost on deaf ears), but if we beat you, you aren't allowed to make excuses. We get it, we're the little guy, and we don't stand a chance. However, nothing is more frustrating than earning a win and then hearing hot take excuses:

1. We would have killed you with Herbert
2. The refs were terrible
3. NDSU didn't win, we shot ourselves in the foot
4. We were off our game today
5. Ducks would beat you 9/10 times
6. You couldn't compete in a full season at the P5 level, you don't have the depth (this one's my personal favorite considering our program is literally built on depth)

You promise that and we'll respect your fanbase no matter what happens. In the eyes of most we haven't earned our respect. We won't until we move up. Everyone says we need to and I agree, but it requires an invite from a conference, which we've never gotten. With that said you need to understand, NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS. I know you'll scoff and laugh at that and you have every right to your opinion. However, a 122-8 record since 2011, 6 consecutive FBS wins, and a HUGE lack of returned phone calls by FBS AD's proves otherwise pretty convincingly.

So my point comes full circle, THANK YOU FOR SCHEDULING THIS GAME! It will be the biggest in our program's history. So for the next few games I think all of Bison Nation is with me when I say GO DUCKS! We'll be "Throwing Our O" for you for the rest of 2019. Nothing would please us more than if you went all the way!


If they're PAC-12 Refs, Win , Loose, or Draw they're going to be horrible.

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