Playoff Chances

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Merganzer
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by Merganzer »

GrandpaDuck wrote:So I haven't read any of this thread but I had a dream where all these posters were asking what does Grandpaduck think about Oregon's playoff chances.

So here it is. It is a fundamentally flawed system that always excludes one or more major conference champions. It also often excludes undefeated qualified teams. My hope is that this year Oregon gets in and enough blue bloods are left out that it cause such a stink they finally expand the system. LSU Versus Clemson & undefeated Minnesota versus Oregon. Meanwhile one loss Ohio State and Alabama and undefeated Baylor sit out.

Since I have added nothing to the actual question of what are Oregon's chances, I'll just go take a nap and create your thunderously approving replies in my next dream.
Not sure this is thunderous, but I definitely approve! It is interesting that like dreams, Alabama's case for the playoffs lacks substance. It's one part eye test & one part hypothetical. "Alabama is obviously one of the best 4 teams. If they played Minnesota who would you take?" Alabama of course. Of course you would also have taken Penn State to beat Minnesota...
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by Merganzer »

LSU 1. Ohio State 2, Clemson 3. A bit of a surprise, Georgia at 4, A loss to the other USC, but W's over Florida & Notre Dame. Alabama 5, Oregon 6, Utah 7,Minnesota 8 & Penn State 9. It would help Oregon if 6-3 Texas A & M would lose, as they are the best team Alabama has beaten.
Last edited by Merganzer on Tue Nov 12, 2019 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
dthomas=ddixon
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by dthomas=ddixon »

I really thought Oregon would only need to beat Utah to get in but after this weeks ranking I’ll be surprised if that happens.

The 4 team playoff is still deeply flawed because of the bias that exists, even amongst the committee. 2 slots are automatically the SEC’s and 1 the Big10’s. That leaves one spot for 3 conference’s, which will always result in two being left out. Never mind the fact that a quarter of the SEC starts the season in the top 10, which again guarantees their top teams having great resumes by seasons end.

As it stands a conference has to either have a team in the top 4 (duh) or a second quality team with the chance to beat one of the top 4. That obviously leaves the Pac12 and Big12 with no shot from here on out, barring something utterly improbable.


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Merganzer
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by Merganzer »

dthomas=ddixon wrote:I really thought Oregon would only need to beat Utah to get in but after this weeks ranking I’ll be surprised if that happens.

The 4 team playoff is still deeply flawed because of the bias that exists, even amongst the committee. 2 slots are automatically the SEC’s and 1 the Big10’s. That leaves one spot for 3 conference’s, which will always result in two being left out. Never mind the fact that a quarter of the SEC starts the season in the top 10, which again guarantees their top teams having great resumes by seasons end.

As it stands a conference has to either have a team in the top 4 (duh) or a second quality team with the chance to beat one of the top 4. That obviously leaves the Pac12 and Big12 with no shot from here on out, barring something utterly improbable.


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For the foreseeable future, Clemson is also an automatic, so that leaves one opening.
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by SuperDuck »

They have to expand it to 8 teams. 5 Conference champs and 3 at-large, one of which could be Notre Dame or a Non-Power-5 conference champ if they're ranked in the Top-12 or so.

Some have said that there'd still be whining about teams getting left out if they were #9 or #10, and that's probably true, but at least it would be much more fair and the chances of actually getting the most deserving teams, especially conference champs, would make it much better. Let the best 8 teams in that format decide it on the field.
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by SuperDuck »

Remaining Schedules:

Alabama: Mississippi State, WCU (cupcake), Auburn

Clemson: Wake Forest, South Carolina

Georgia: Auburn, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech

LSU: Mississippi, Arkansas, Texas A&M

Ohio State: Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan

My first observation is that a close loss by LSU or Ohio State probably won't knock them out of the Top-4, unless Ohio State loses to Penn State.

Auburn needs to beat Georgia, Alabama or both. That would give one or both of them both a second loss and eliminate them from the conversation. It would also give Oregon a major boost in SOS.

Ohio State doesn't have a clear path. They still have to play Penn State and Michigan. A loss to Penn State would put them in second place in their division, and almost hand the title game to the Nittany Lions.

Would the committee put in 2 non-conference champions (Alabama and Ohio State)?

Stranger things have happened. That might be the exact type of debacle that would cause such an uproar that would force the Playoff Committee to expand to 8 teams.

My observation: I don't think Alabama will lose again in thr regular season. I DO think that Auburn can upset Georgia, though. That would eliminate the Bulldogs. Then we'd have to hope that Ohio State, Clemson or both stumble.

We'd also have to hope that Minnesota doesn't win out. I think they can beat Iowa and Wisconsin. I doubt they'd beat Ohio State, but if Penn State did it for them and they could have a rematch with them instead of the Buckeyes, I'd take the Gophers.

Oregon's margin is very slim...even if they did win out and beat Utah. All of the pieces would have to fall in the right place.
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Tray Dub
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by Tray Dub »

It's still possible that the committee would jump us over Bama after we beat Utah, but who can predict. Unless we get some help, this could be a nerve-wracking next few weeks. Filled with endless debate of course.
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by Duckattack7 »

Tray Dub wrote:It's still possible that the committee would jump us over Bama after we beat Utah, but who can predict. Unless we get some help, this could be a nerve-wracking next few weeks. Filled with endless debate of course.
Let’s hope the ducks remaining games aren’t as nerve-wrecking :lol:
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DuckDuckJuice
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by DuckDuckJuice »

Unless Georgia defeats LSU in the SEC Championship game, I think Oregon will jump Georgia and Alabama if we win the PAC12 Championship. If LSU is #1, you want to be #4. Ohio State is a more complete team and probably the best in the country.
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by SteelTown43 »

I feel very, very good about our chances of finishing #4 at year's end if we win the remainder of our games ,including a win in the Pac 12 championship over an 11-1 Utah.

We just need the following things to happen, all of which I'd say are quite likely

1. Lsu wins the SEC (this ensures a second Georgia loss)
2. Ohio state wins the BIG 10 (this ensures a Minnesota loss)
3. Baylor loses a game

I think if these things happen, we are absolutely going to get the fourth spot. In this scenario, assuming lsu, Ohio state and Clemson are in, you would have a debate of a 12-1 conference champ Oregon vs a 12-1 conference champ Oklahoma vs an 11-1 Alabama team that did not play in it's conference championship game. The committee is putting an emphasis on rewarding quality wins, as evidenced by the fact that Baylor is still 13th despite being undefeated, by undefeated Minnesota jumping nine spots after finally playing a quality opponent and notching a quality win, and the fact that Georgia is ranked ahead of Alabama despite Georgia's ugly home loss to south Carolina compared to Alabama's loss to the #1 team in the country

We'll start with Oregon vs Oklahoma. The best case for the sooners is to finish 12-1, which would likely leave them with two top 25 wins, both against Baylor, who currently is undefeated and ranks 13th, so they'd probably be about 20th. Oregon would have a win over a team that would finish the season ranked inside the top ten, even after the loss to Oregon. The ducks will win this argument and it won't really be close I don't think. That said I expect the BIG 12 to sort itself out. My guess is Oklahoma winds up a 2 loss conference champ.

Now on to Oregon vs Alabama. 12-1 Pac 12 champ vs 11-1 SEC at-large. I keep hearing people say that auburn is so important to our playoff hopes. While I agree that they could cause some chaos, I still don't really think it matters what auburn does. As it stands now Alabama's best two wins are likely against a 7-5 Texas a&m , and a potentially 8-4 auburn, who would be ranked about 17th. I've heard the argument that since we lost to auburn, and Alabama won't have in this scenario, that they should be ranked ahead of us, but look at Georgia and Alabama right now. Georgia loses at home to south Carolina, and Alabama beats south Carolina on the road by 24, yet Georgia is ranked higher. I really like the ducks argument here as well.

If we win out I think we're getting in boys! GO DUCKS!!!!
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by GoDucksIn09 »

I agree with Steel towns overview. I think if Oregon wins out they get in. That is not going to be easy though. We can not overlook anyone. We still have to play ASU on the road. I do think we win our last 3 games. The game against Utah in the championship hmm well that will be hard. Utah going to give us a huge challenge. I think their defense is better. I think our quarterback is better. I do think if we win that one we are in. Let us not forget though UCLA has been getting better and they play Utah this week. Utah could lose that one. I don't think they do but I didn't think UCLA would be winning very many games this year.
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Re: Playoff Chances

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I’d be happy with a win in the Rose Bowl. Not convinced we will beat Utah. Which would leave them in the playoff discussion as a 12-1 conference Champ and put us in the Rose Bowl with hopefully a rematch with Penn State, which I think we could win. Sure I’d like to go to the CFP but not sure we could hang with LSU, Clemson or Ohio THE State. So yeah, 12-2 Rose Bowl Champs? If you told us that would happen at the beginning of the year, not many of you wouldn’t have jumped all over it.
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by OregonFan4Life »

nogerO wrote:I’d be happy with a win in the Rose Bowl. Not convinced we will beat Utah. Which would leave them in the playoff discussion as a 12-1 conference Champ and put us in the Rose Bowl with hopefully a rematch with Penn State, which I think we could win. Sure I’d like to go to the CFP but not sure we could hang with LSU, Clemson or Ohio THE State. So yeah, 12-2 Rose Bowl Champs? If you told us that would happen at the beginning of the year, not many of you wouldn’t have jumped all over it.
I completely agree about the Rose Bowl, but not winning the Pac-12 would sting a bit. While Utah is really good, I think Oregon has more talent and that's a game they should win. However, you could've said the same for the Auburn game and Herbert fumbled a 1st and goal from the 9 yard line and Arroyo/Cristobal went way too conservative early in the 3rd quarter, so a win against Utah is far from a guarantee.

I still think we're looking forward too much, Oregon should beat Zona at home this week, but the following week against ASU will not be easy. ASU has some good and tough players plus their crowd will be fired up and loud and it'll most likely be stupid Pac-12 after dark. Nothing good happens during Pac-12 after dark. I still remember how rattled Herbert and the ducks were at WSU last year, they don't have a history of handling rowdy crowds well, and the ASU crowd will be a rowdy one. This will be ASU's season at this point; I'm not 100% sure Oregon will come out of Tempe with only 1 loss on the season.
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Re: Playoff Chances

Post by Duck07 »

I still think we need Auburn to beat Alabama on top of everything else.
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Re: Playoff Chances

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OregonFan4Life wrote:
nogerO wrote:I’d be happy with a win in the Rose Bowl. Not convinced we will beat Utah. Which would leave them in the playoff discussion as a 12-1 conference Champ and put us in the Rose Bowl with hopefully a rematch with Penn State, which I think we could win. Sure I’d like to go to the CFP but not sure we could hang with LSU, Clemson or Ohio THE State. So yeah, 12-2 Rose Bowl Champs? If you told us that would happen at the beginning of the year, not many of you wouldn’t have jumped all over it.
I completely agree about the Rose Bowl, but not winning the Pac-12 would sting a bit. While Utah is really good, I think Oregon has more talent and that's a game they should win. However, you could've said the same for the Auburn game and Herbert fumbled a 1st and goal from the 9 yard line and Arroyo/Cristobal went way too conservative early in the 3rd quarter, so a win against Utah is far from a guarantee.

I still think we're looking forward too much, Oregon should beat Zona at home this week, but the following week against ASU will not be easy. ASU has some good and tough players plus their crowd will be fired up and loud and it'll most likely be stupid Pac-12 after dark. Nothing good happens during Pac-12 after dark. I still remember how rattled Herbert and the ducks were at WSU last year, they don't have a history of handling rowdy crowds well, and the ASU crowd will be a rowdy one. This will be ASU's season at this point; I'm not 100% sure Oregon will come out of Tempe with only 1 loss on the season.
That defense of Utah will shut down our run game and once we start passing they will put pressure on Herbert and we all know how he nuts up under pressure, and refuses to run. I would love to beat Utah but the eyeball test tells me that’s a tall order. 12-2 Rose Nowl would make me happy.
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