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Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:30 pm
by lukeyrid13
Looking at realistic chance of making the playoffs

Disclaimers:
1. I don't think we finish 12-1
2. I don't think we make playoff
3. I don't necessarily want to make the playoff

4 spots

1. SEC - Bama, LSU, Georgia, Florida Or Auburn. At least one of these teams make it no matter what
2. Clemson - Favored to win by 21 in each of their games. Likely undefeated
3. Ohio St/Penn St - Likely Ohio St. Assuming they're 12-1 or 13-0 they're ahead of us
4. Oklahoma - I think they make it ahead of us even with a loss
5. Notre Dame - I think as a conference champ that we would pass them

Essentially, the only way that we get in, is if Clemson loses AND the committee ranks us above them. Outside of all of the teams ahead of us losing more than once I don't think there's a realistic chance we can make the playoffs even if we go 12-1.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:59 pm
by Merganzer
Clemson is the LOCK. Alabama & LSU, I can see both getting in, one will be undefeated, Conference champion, the other won't be the conference champ, but its only loss will be to the conference champ, and Ohio State, prohibitively the Big 10 champ, will get in, Oklahoma, 12-0,
won't get in; hard to see a scenario where Oregon has a chance.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:23 pm
by northbeachsf
Even if Oregon wins out, which I think is unlikely, I still don't see a path to the playoff for them. I am actually okay with that this year because they just don't pass the eyeball test right now. They would get throttled by Alabama, LSU, or OSU for sure.

I am already starting to see the push by the media to get two SEC teams in. How in the #@$%^$ does Georgia lose to unranked 3-4 South Carolina at home and still stay in the Top 10? I am not arguing for Oregon, but that is just bull$%^& right there.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:30 pm
by Merganzer
northbeachsf wrote:Even if Oregon wins out, which I think is unlikely, I still don't see a path to the playoff for them. I am actually okay with that this year because they just don't pass the eyeball test right now. They would get throttled by Alabama, LSU, or OSU for sure.

I am already starting to see the push by the media to get two SEC teams in. How in the #@$%^$ does Georgia lose to unranked 3-4 South Carolina at home and still stay in the Top 10? I am not arguing for Oregon, but that is just bull$%^& right there.
Especially since Oregon's loss is also to an SEC, ranked team, on a neutral field.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:10 pm
by GoDucksIn09
I actually am thinking Oregon does go to 12-1. If they lose it will be in the Pac 12 championship game. That is all assuming they win this weekend. I think USC will be difficult for us. They still have the talent to compete with anyone. I do think though this last weekend was a wake up call for the defense of Oregon. I think the rest of the way they will not take any quarters off. The offense came from 14 points down so they should also have a lot of confidence.

I never thought Oregon would go 12-1 but now as I look at the schedule the only game am really concerned after Saturday is USC.

I don't think they make the playoff though. Even at 12-1. The Pac 12 is not a strong conference. That will hurt whoever is the conference champion.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:14 pm
by brich75
GoDucksIn09 wrote:I actually am thinking Oregon does go to 12-1. If they lose it will be in the Pac 12 championship game. That is all assuming they win this weekend. I think USC will be difficult for us. They still have the talent to compete with anyone. I do think though this last weekend was a wake up call for the defense of Oregon. I think the rest of the way they will not take any quarters off. The offense came from 14 points down so they should also have a lot of confidence.

I never thought Oregon would go 12-1 but now as I look at the schedule the only game am really concerned after Saturday is USC.

I don't think they make the playoff though. Even at 12-1. The Pac 12 is not a strong conference. That will hurt whoever is the conference champion.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:29 pm
by UofDuck
GoDucksIn09 wrote:I actually am thinking Oregon does go to 12-1. If they lose it will be in the Pac 12 championship game. That is all assuming they win this weekend. I think USC will be difficult for us. They still have the talent to compete with anyone. I do think though this last weekend was a wake up call for the defense of Oregon. I think the rest of the way they will not take any quarters off. The offense came from 14 points down so they should also have a lot of confidence.

I never thought Oregon would go 12-1 but now as I look at the schedule the only game am really concerned after Saturday is USC.

I don't think they make the playoff though. Even at 12-1. The Pac 12 is not a strong conference. That will hurt whoever is the conference champion.
I like our chances because our strengths align with theirs. I see their two strengths as DLine and WR. I feel we can neutralize their strengths with ours.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:30 pm
by Everythingsducky
Hopefully the end result is that it is too close, and too subjective, that the NCAA opens it up to a larger field for the playoffs. Is there any sport, in any facet, that has over 100 teams, and limits it to 4 teams? With more conferences than spots allowed?

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:46 pm
by AutzenMember
GoDucksIn09 wrote:I actually am thinking Oregon does go to 12-1. If they lose it will be in the Pac 12 championship game. That is all assuming they win this weekend. I think USC will be difficult for us. They still have the talent to compete with anyone. I do think though this last weekend was a wake up call for the defense of Oregon. I think the rest of the way they will not take any quarters off. The offense came from 14 points down so they should also have a lot of confidence.

I never thought Oregon would go 12-1 but now as I look at the schedule the only game am really concerned after Saturday is USC.

I don't think they make the playoff though. Even at 12-1. The Pac 12 is not a strong conference. That will hurt whoever is the conference champion.
While I agree that the Pac12 is not a strong conference, a quick look at the ACC makes the Pac12 look a whole lot better. The ACC is a farce this year and its champion has looked a far cry short of last year's Clemson team. They will get in, even with a loss, but to me it's a shame. They shouldn't be judged by last year's team to get into this year's finals. This is not a plea for Oregon, more so for Oklahoma...they are a team deserved of being in and I would put them in over Clemson if they both go undefeated. Need more teams in the playoffs!!!

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 am
by nogerO
"Playoffs??? Don't talk about Playoffs? I just want to win some games!"

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:16 am
by nogerO
brich75 wrote:
GoDucksIn09 wrote:I actually am thinking Oregon does go to 12-1. If they lose it will be in the Pac 12 championship game. That is all assuming they win this weekend. I think USC will be difficult for us. They still have the talent to compete with anyone. I do think though this last weekend was a wake up call for the defense of Oregon. I think the rest of the way they will not take any quarters off. The offense came from 14 points down so they should also have a lot of confidence.

I never thought Oregon would go 12-1 but now as I look at the schedule the only game am really concerned after Saturday is USC.

I don't think they make the playoff though. Even at 12-1. The Pac 12 is not a strong conference. That will hurt whoever is the conference champion.
It would help if the totally biased east of the Mississippi media would start the season with 6 Pac-teams in the top 25 like the SEC automatically gets every year...

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:42 am
by Merganzer
AutzenMember wrote:
GoDucksIn09 wrote:I actually am thinking Oregon does go to 12-1. If they lose it will be in the Pac 12 championship game. That is all assuming they win this weekend. I think USC will be difficult for us. They still have the talent to compete with anyone. I do think though this last weekend was a wake up call for the defense of Oregon. I think the rest of the way they will not take any quarters off. The offense came from 14 points down so they should also have a lot of confidence.

I never thought Oregon would go 12-1 but now as I look at the schedule the only game am really concerned after Saturday is USC.

I don't think they make the playoff though. Even at 12-1. The Pac 12 is not a strong conference. That will hurt whoever is the conference champion.
While I agree that the Pac12 is not a strong conference, a quick look at the ACC makes the Pac12 look a whole lot better. The ACC is a farce this year and its champion has looked a far cry short of last year's Clemson team. They will get in, even with a loss, but to me it's a shame. They shouldn't be judged by last year's team to get into this year's finals. This is not a plea for Oregon, more so for Oklahoma...they are a team deserved of being in and I would put them in over Clemson if they both go undefeated. Need more teams in the playoffs!!!
Based on this season: 1. LSU 2. Ohio State 3. Alabama 4. Penn. State 5. Oklahoma 6. Florida 7. Auburn 8. Oregon. Clemson can only play the teams on their schedule? Yes, same for every other team, and all of these 8 have played tougher schedules than has Clemson. the 3 with losses, were all to other teams in the 8.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:35 am
by DuckDuckJuice
If Oregon ends the season 12-1 with a win over a top 10 Utah, and Auburn is still top 10, they should be in over Clemson with possibly 0 top 25 wins. Won’t happen though, undefeated with a power 5 schedule is an automatic playoff spot, especially for a returning champ. You could make the case the ACC shouldn’t be considered power 5 at this point though.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:40 am
by DuckDuckJuice
If I’m making the case for leaving out Clemson, I’m pointing to FSU going undefeated for two years in the ACC and still not being competitive against 2014 Oregon in the playoff.

Re: Playoff Chances

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:21 pm
by GoDucksTroll
The ACC is so weak that if Clemson drops one game I don't think the committee puts them in over a 12-1 Oregon.

If Oklahoma losses to someone, say Baylor, in the regular season and then wins the rematch in the conference championship then they're in.

tOSU is looking like they'll go undefeated. We know the SEC will get at least one. Notre Dame has a pretty weak schedule remaining, with a crappy Michigan this weekend as their biggest threat.

I'm still not confident enough to say we go 12-1. But if we do, we just need to leave no doubt. Make that committee have to justify leaving us out, punishing us for not being afraid to schedule a tough opener.