Playoff Chances

Merganzer · Post by **Merganzer** » Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:49 pm

DuckDuckJuice wrote:If I’m making the case for leaving out Clemson, I’m pointing to FSU going undefeated for two years in the ACC and still not being competitive against 2014 Oregon in the playoff.

Yep, it's literally the definition of insanity to put Clemson in.

SuperDuck · Post by **SuperDuck** » Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:01 am

northbeachsf wrote:Even if Oregon wins out, which I think is unlikely, I still don't see a path to the playoff for them. I am actually okay with that this year because they just don't pass the eyeball test right now. They would get throttled by Alabama, LSU, or OSU for sure.

I'm not so sure that we'd get "throttled". Lose, likely. But most Alabama fans are saying that this year's defense isn't up to their usual standards. LSU has also given up some points. I think Ohio State may be the best of the three, and I wouldn't like our chances against them, but I'd give us chance against the other two. A couple turnovers our way and you just never know.

whosyourwally · Post by **whosyourwally** » Thu Oct 24, 2019 3:48 pm

Just for fun, remember Oregon’s first year under Helfrich? And then remember the second..... hey Ryan Day....

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Merganzer · Post by **Merganzer** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:39 am

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GoDucksIn09 · Post by **GoDucksIn09** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:19 am

We would get stomped by Ohio State. If I had to chose to play someone near the top it might be Clemson. I think Oregon would lose to any of the top 6. Penn State maybe we could beat. They are tough but they don't scare me.

karlhungis · Post by **karlhungis** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:49 pm

GoDucksIn09 wrote:We would get stomped by Ohio State. If I had to chose to play someone near the top it might be Clemson. I think Oregon would lose to any of the top 6. Penn State maybe we could beat. They are tough but they don't scare me.

I agree. I think the only teams we really have a shot against would be Clemson and Penn State. At this point, I really just want the Rose Bowl.

duckduckgoose · Post by **duckduckgoose** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:58 pm

karlhungis wrote:
GoDucksIn09 wrote:We would get stomped by Ohio State. If I had to chose to play someone near the top it might be Clemson. I think Oregon would lose to any of the top 6. Penn State maybe we could beat. They are tough but they don't scare me.
I agree. I think the only teams we really have a shot against would be Clemson and Penn State. At this point, I really just want the Rose Bowl.

Auburn hung close with LSU, why do you think they would kill us? The Ducks outplayed Auburn for the majority of that game.

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lukeyrid13 · Post by **lukeyrid13** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:42 pm

I just want to avoid Ohio state until September.

SuperDuck · Post by **SuperDuck** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:42 pm

duckduckgoose wrote:
karlhungis wrote:
GoDucksIn09 wrote:We would get stomped by Ohio State. If I had to chose to play someone near the top it might be Clemson. I think Oregon would lose to any of the top 6. Penn State maybe we could beat. They are tough but they don't scare me.
I agree. I think the only teams we really have a shot against would be Clemson and Penn State. At this point, I really just want the Rose Bowl.
Auburn hung close with LSU, why do you think they would kill us? The Ducks outplayed Auburn for the majority of that game.

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Agreed.

Regarding our playoff chances, there's a very good chance that we could make it into the Top-4 if things continue as they are. That's because most of the teams above us and just below us have to play at least one game against another in the Top-7.

LSU vs Alabama, Ohio State vs Penn State and Florida vs Georgia all play before the end of the season. That doesn't include other good teams they must face, Ohio State vs Michigan, Penn State vs Minnesota, Alabama vs Auburn, conference championship games and more.

Our biggest problem is going to be perceived SOS. We need Utah to win out until the Pac-12 championship and then beat them. That, along with us winning out and the rest of the top beating each other up, may be our only chance.

GrantDuck · Post by **GrantDuck** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:09 pm

At this point, LSU/Bama are most likely both going to be in.

Clemson's scare was against UNC, don't think they'll be challenged again in the ACC.

Ohio State looks like a juggernaut.

I think if Utah/Oregon win out, that will leave us or Utah sitting at 5th.

alxtw · Post by **alxtw** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:15 pm

I feel only Ohio State and Alabama (with Tua) would roll over us. (meaning they'd still beat us our players were playing great in the game) All of the other top 8 teams, we could beat if our players were playing great in the game.

GoDucksTroll · Post by **GoDucksTroll** » Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:40 pm

The first committee rankings this week will be telling. If we’re 6th instead of 7th or 8th behind UGA and Oklahoma then I think we’re in if we win out.

Tray Dub · Post by **Tray Dub** » Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:44 pm

GoDucksTroll wrote:The first committee rankings this week will be telling. If we’re 6th instead of 7th or 8th behind UGA and Oklahoma then I think we’re in if we win out.

Eh, I'm not so sure. Say LSU beats Bama next week and wins the SEC championship. Bama, meanwhile, wins out. Would they really put us in over Bama? Bama would have a better loss than ours and they'd have beaten Auburn, the team we lost to. Same story if you Bama beat LSU next week – a one-loss LSU's resume would look pretty dang strong compared to ours.

I think we still need help. Either a Clemson loss, only one SEC team with zero/one loss, or the winner of OSU-Penn State to lose.

Merganzer · Post by **Merganzer** » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:20 pm

Tray Dub wrote:
GoDucksTroll wrote:The first committee rankings this week will be telling. If we’re 6th instead of 7th or 8th behind UGA and Oklahoma then I think we’re in if we win out.
Eh, I'm not so sure. Say LSU beats Bama next week and wins the SEC championship. Bama, meanwhile, wins out. Would they really put us in over Bama? Bama would have a better loss than ours and they'd have beaten Auburn, the team we lost to. Same story if you Bama beat LSU next week – a one-loss LSU's resume would look pretty dang strong compared to ours.

I think we still need help. Either a Clemson loss, only one SEC team with zero/one loss, or the winner of OSU-Penn State to lose.

One of the ESPN commentators said that if Oregon goes 12-1, their only loss being the first game to Auburn, and being the Conference champion that there is a chance that the committee would put them over Non Conference champ and 1 loss Alabama or LSU.

Tray Dub · Post by **Tray Dub** » Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:26 pm

Right, that's one of the things we'd point to. In the scenario I laid out, our best arguments would be: 1) we're the conference champion, they're not; 2) our best win (#6ish Utah, assuming they win out) is better than their best win (Florida or Auburn for LSU, Auburn for Bama); 3) we've won 12 games in a row, they lost in November. Would we win the debate? I'm honestly not sure.

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