Oregon starts off at #4 in CFP Poll

[GoDucksTroll]

I’m very skeptical on Oregon going undefeated the rest of the way, but it’s certainly possible. If you had told me 7-1 and ranked #4 before the season started I’d take it.

As far as future speculation, here’s a depressing scenario:

* UGA wins out and losses to Bama in the SEC championship game. They, almost certainly, are both in.
* Ohio State wins out, which includes wins against Michigan, Michigan State, and the Big Ten West champ.
* Oklahoma wins out, which includes wins against Baylor, Oklahoma State, and the Big-12 championship game.
* Cincy wins out.
* Wake Forest wins out.

You now have a conundrum, and the likeliest scenario to me is that the last two spots go to Ohio State or Oklahoma or Oregon. We can exclude Cincy and Wake. I think the committee pick Ohio State and Oklahoma. Ohio State would have the best resume of the three. Oregon’s head to head win is keeping them above, but a weaker remaining schedule and hasn’t been as impressive.

A ton of football to be played, and Oregon has the top three teams in the Pac-12 north, and the top team in the Pac-12 South, and a possible rematch with that south team remaining. The above scenario is unlikely - just win and you’re probably in.

[karlhungis]

I’m very skeptical on Oregon going undefeated the rest of the way, but it’s certainly possible. If you had told me 7-1 and ranked #4 before the season started I’d take it.

As far as future speculation, here’s a depressing scenario:

* UGA wins out and losses to Bama in the SEC championship game. They, almost certainly, are both in.
* Ohio State wins out, which includes wins against Michigan, Michigan State, and the Big Ten West champ.
* Oklahoma wins out, which includes wins against Baylor, Oklahoma State, and the Big-12 championship game.
* Cincy wins out.
* Wake Forest wins out.

You now have a conundrum, and the likeliest scenario to me is that the last two spots go to Ohio State or Oklahoma or Oregon. We can exclude Cincy and Wake. I think the committee pick Ohio State and Oklahoma. Ohio State would have the best resume of the three. Oregon’s head to head win is keeping them above, but a weaker remaining schedule and hasn’t been as impressive.

A ton of football to be played, and Oregon has the top three teams in the Pac-12 north, and the top team in the Pac-12 South, and a possible rematch with that south team remaining. The above scenario is unlikely - just win and you’re probably in.

In that scenario, we would have no business complaining. We shouldn't have lost to Stanford, period. All of those other teams would be more deserving.

[GoDucksTroll]

I’m very skeptical on Oregon going undefeated the rest of the way, but it’s certainly possible. If you had told me 7-1 and ranked #4 before the season started I’d take it.

As far as future speculation, here’s a depressing scenario:

* UGA wins out and losses to Bama in the SEC championship game. They, almost certainly, are both in.
* Ohio State wins out, which includes wins against Michigan, Michigan State, and the Big Ten West champ.
* Oklahoma wins out, which includes wins against Baylor, Oklahoma State, and the Big-12 championship game.
* Cincy wins out.
* Wake Forest wins out.

You now have a conundrum, and the likeliest scenario to me is that the last two spots go to Ohio State or Oklahoma or Oregon. We can exclude Cincy and Wake. I think the committee pick Ohio State and Oklahoma. Ohio State would have the best resume of the three. Oregon’s head to head win is keeping them above, but a weaker remaining schedule and hasn’t been as impressive.

A ton of football to be played, and Oregon has the top three teams in the Pac-12 north, and the top team in the Pac-12 South, and a possible rematch with that south team remaining. The above scenario is unlikely - just win and you’re probably in.

In that scenario, we would have no business complaining. We shouldn't have lost to Stanford, period. All of those other teams would be more deserving.

It’s difficult to argue against those four teams being more deserving in that scenario.

It would feel dirty to see a 12-1 Ohio State over a 12-1 Oregon that beat them, at their house, without Thibodeaux. Undefeated Oklahoma or Michigan State or Wake Forest - those I understand. But the team with the same record and a head to head loss? It doesn’t feel right.

[StevensTechU]

I'm also really big on the 'where was the game played.' Weird things happen on the road and that's part of what makes college football so wonderful. But, when you get beat at your own place by another team, that team is definitively better than you. Oregon > Ohio State

[alxtw]

If Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Oregon all win out, and only 2 out of the 3 teams can make the playoffs, I feel that Oklahoma should be at the bottom of the pecking order. Watching both teams play, Ohio State is a much better team than Oklahoma and plays a considerably tougher schedule and opponents. We'd probably win games in Columbus, especially under those circumstances, well under 50% of the time. But since we did win, we should have the edge over Ohio State and even bigger edge over Oklahoma.
Now just go win out the rest of the season and stay healthy!!

[Phalanx]

I don't know why we torture ourselves. We all know that even if Oregon won out (which is unlikely), the powers would find a reason to pass Oregon with two teams. They have several just waiting in the wings. The main thing they accomplished today was to establish Alabama at #2. Now that two SEC teams are at the top, the rest of the agenda will take care of itself, and we will end up with the Big 10 champ and either Oklahoma or Cincinnati if they are feeling liberal and egalitarian. They'd like to include Oregon, but that loss to Stanford that was engineered at the end of the game by the refs just couldn't be overlooked, as well as the weak remaining schedule. Their hands were tied. This initial ranking IS your playoffs. They can now say they included a team in the west, and it cost them nothing. That's the only sniff Oregon is going to get.

The sooner you accept this reality, the happier you will be.

[Duck07]

I don't know why we torture ourselves. We all know that even if Oregon won out (which is unlikely), the powers would find a reason to pass Oregon with two teams. They have several just waiting in the wings. The main thing they accomplished today was to establish Alabama at #2. Now that two SEC teams are at the top, the rest of the agenda will take care of itself, and we will end up with the Big 10 champ and either Oklahoma or Cincinnati if they are feeling liberal and egalitarian. They'd like to include Oregon, but that loss to Stanford that was engineered at the end of the game by the refs just couldn't be overlooked, as well as the weak remaining schedule. Their hands were tied. This initial ranking IS your playoffs. They can now say they included a team in the west, and it cost them nothing. That's the only sniff Oregon is going to get.

The sooner you accept this reality, the happier you will be.

I think what this first ranking says is that if we do win our next 5 (all against +500 teams) that we are in. We already have a higher SOS than Cincy does and if the committee felt that undefeated Oklahoma is more deserving than Oregon with our loss to Stanford they'd have put them above us so I don't agree with your take about this being the only sniff we get as we clearly have the burden now of winning out to get in.

[dthomas=ddixon]

I don't know why we torture ourselves. We all know that even if Oregon won out (which is unlikely), the powers would find a reason to pass Oregon with two teams. They have several just waiting in the wings. The main thing they accomplished today was to establish Alabama at #2. Now that two SEC teams are at the top, the rest of the agenda will take care of itself, and we will end up with the Big 10 champ and either Oklahoma or Cincinnati if they are feeling liberal and egalitarian. They'd like to include Oregon, but that loss to Stanford that was engineered at the end of the game by the refs just couldn't be overlooked, as well as the weak remaining schedule. Their hands were tied. This initial ranking IS your playoffs. They can now say they included a team in the west, and it cost them nothing. That's the only sniff Oregon is going to get.

The sooner you accept this reality, the happier you will be.

I think what this first ranking says is that if we do win our next 5 (all against +500 teams) that we are in. We already have a higher SOS than Cincy does and if the committee felt that undefeated Oklahoma is more deserving than Oregon with our loss to Stanford they'd have put them above us so I don't agree with your take about this being the only sniff we get as we clearly have the burden now of winning out to get in.

Yep, I felt this ranking was a pretty clear statement by the committee that they value our win @ tOSU, and our overall SOS. The better tOSU does the better that win is, so I don’t believe tOSU winning out automatically puts them above us at all. If the plan was for us to be on the outside looking in they would have established that with this first ranking, IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Phalanx]

I think what this first ranking says is that if we do win our next 5 (all against +500 teams) that we are in. We already have a higher SOS than Cincy does and if the committee felt that undefeated Oklahoma is more deserving than Oregon with our loss to Stanford they'd have put them above us so I don't agree with your take about this being the only sniff we get as we clearly have the burden now of winning out to get in.

I know you have been following football a number of years - how many times have we seen this scenario play out? The ducks start with a higher ranking and then get passed by an SEC or Big 10 or Big 12 school because they played teams that the voters thought were of a higher caste than the standard Pac 12 fare. Heck, it happened just last week in the polls - Michigan State was behind the Ducks, then they beat Michigan, and now they are ahead. So you might respond, 'Well, that's because they are undefeated!". Yep, and so is Oklahoma, and so is Cincinnati, and Wake Forest, for that matter. There's a whole turnstile of teams waiting to pass Oregon, and only one needs to do it for the Ducks to get bumped out.

So, you can disagree and prolong your agony if you want. I am just waiting for the inevitable. It won't even take a loss. The Ducks' position is so precarious, even if one of the remaining games is close, that will be all the opening the committee needs to downgrade the Ducks one spot. The talking heads are already anticipating it. It's very nearly a certainty in my mind.

[Duck07]

I know you have been following football a number of years - how many times have we seen this scenario play out? The ducks start with a higher ranking and then get passed by an SEC or Big 10 or Big 12 school because they played teams that the voters thought were of a higher caste than the standard Pac 12 fare. Heck, it happened just last week in the polls - Michigan State was behind the Ducks, then they beat Michigan, and now they are ahead. So you might respond, 'Well, that's because they are undefeated!". Yep, and so is Oklahoma, and so is Cincinnati, and Wake Forest, for that matter. There's a whole turnstile of teams waiting to pass Oregon, and only one needs to do it for the Ducks to get bumped out.

So, you can disagree and prolong your agony if you want. I am just waiting for the inevitable. It won't even take a loss. The Ducks' position is so precarious, even if one of the remaining games is close, that will be all the opening the committee needs to downgrade the Ducks one spot. The talking heads are already anticipating it. It's very nearly a certainty in my mind.

Michigan St doesn't work because this is the initial committee rankings so the point still remains with all of the other undefeated teams being ranked behind us after our bad loss, if the Committee felt it was that bad then they wouldn't have put us behind them.

By all means, take the dour approach if you want but I see no need to be so pessimistic about this right now even if you think the odds of going 12-1 may not be in our favor.

[Phalanx]

Michigan St doesn't work because this is the initial committee rankings so the point still remains with all of the other undefeated teams being ranked behind us after our bad loss, if the Committee felt it was that bad then they wouldn't have put us behind them.

By all means, take the dour approach if you want but I see no need to be so pessimistic about this right now even if you think the odds of going 12-1 may not be in our favor.

Thanks, I will, since the 'dour' approach is also 99% likely to happen. I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic as much as I am pointing out that the committee is setting the ducks up once again to make it look like they gave a team from the West a chance, but the deck is clearly stacked against them, and the likelihood of being there at the end is going to be eroded by the kind of spinning and perpetual perception that affects the Ducks every single year they are in the national conversation. Never mind the refs and their very suspect influence at the end of close games. You can already hear sports pundits talking about Ohio State eventually passing Oregon, and Oklahoma in the on-deck circle, just waiting for a few 'quality wins'. Frankly, we would be remiss if someone here didn't mention the likely set-up. The committee's job isn't just to pick four teams, but also to appease the conferences who don't get in and convince them that they had a chance so that the gravy train can keep rolling.

Anyway, you don't need to keep arguing with me and my dour prediction. Enjoy the bliss of being in 4th for now. You are meant to, after all.

[73duck]

> The main thing they accomplished today was to establish Alabama at #2.

Why would anyone care where they put Alabama? Alabama either wins out (which would mean a win over Georgia) or it has a second loss. Under the first scenario nobody would suggest they don't belong in the CFP; under the other, there is no way a two-loss Alabama would get in over a one-loss Oregon. Or are you suggesting that Georgia with a loss to Alabama should not get in over Oregon with a loss to Stanford? What do you think the line would be for an Oregon-Georgia game on a neutral field?

The people who should be unhappy about the CFP rankings are Cincinnati and Oklahoma, not Oregon.

[Duck07]

Michigan St doesn't work because this is the initial committee rankings so the point still remains with all of the other undefeated teams being ranked behind us after our bad loss, if the Committee felt it was that bad then they wouldn't have put us behind them.

By all means, take the dour approach if you want but I see no need to be so pessimistic about this right now even if you think the odds of going 12-1 may not be in our favor.

Thanks, I will, since the 'dour' approach is also 99% likely to happen. I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic as much as I am pointing out that the committee is setting the ducks up once again to make it look like they gave a team from the West a chance, but the deck is clearly stacked against them, and the likelihood of being there at the end is going to be eroded by the kind of spinning and perpetual perception that affects the Ducks every single year they are in the national conversation. Never mind the refs and their very suspect influence at the end of close games. You can already hear sports pundits talking about Ohio State eventually passing Oregon, and Oklahoma in the on-deck circle, just waiting for a few 'quality wins'. Frankly, we would be remiss if someone here didn't mention the likely set-up. The committee's job isn't just to pick four teams, but also to appease the conferences who don't get in and convince them that they had a chance so that the gravy train can keep rolling.

Anyway, you don't need to keep arguing with me and my dour prediction. Enjoy the bliss of being in 4th for now. You are meant to, after all.

We're moving to either an 8 or 12 team playoff - appeasement plays zero part in this.

Objectively speaking none of what you claim makes any sense.

[Phalanx]

We're moving to either an 8 or 12 team playoff - appeasement plays zero part in this.

Objectively speaking none of what you claim makes any sense.

Right - so weird how you keep coming back to respond though to such uncredible ravings.

[StevensTechU]

Week 2 poll:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Cincinnati
6. Michigan
7. Michigan State
8. Chokelahoma
...
24. Utah


Alabama, which nearly lost to a bad and depleted LSU this weekend, and who is 1-1 against the Top 25, is horribly overrated based on what they've done. Cincy should be #2. Michigan being ahead of Michigan State a week after they played and lost to MSU is a head-scratcher. Ducks truly control their own destiny at this point.

How would folks feel about playing Alabama in the semifinals?