End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

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paduck
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End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by paduck »

We've got a couple days to kill before the Sweet 16 starts up, so I thought I'd start a discussion about end-of-game strategy. My theory, if you will, is that Oregon has been pretty lucky this year in close games as the clock winds down. Quick breakdown:

UCLA @ Oregon: Oregon down 2, Brooks with a long 3-pointer for the W
Oregon @ Cal: Tie game and another Brooks game-winning 3
Rhode Island vs. Oregon: Tie game, Dorsey with the dagger

These are all great moments in the season. AMAZING shots by really clutch players. When I use the term lucky, I don't mean the shot itself was luck -- I mean that, given the situations, these shots weren't the correct basketball play but worked out anyway.

Down two or tied, doesn't it make more sense to take the ball to the basket? Even last night, Oregon was in the double bonus and RI couldn't stop penetration without hand-checking and fouling. If Dorsey misses that shot last night, don't we all agree it's a foolish play? What do you think?

Again, just figured it might make for an interesting discussion.

PS: What an awesome year so far. Love this team's grit and fight.
chapelhillduck
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by chapelhillduck »

IDK...I see what you're saying but Dorsey had a step in three from straight on with 40s left. Not a terribly difficult shot all things considered, plus they had at least one more possession left if shot missed and URI scored


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Ducks10
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by Ducks10 »

You forgot the one game where we legitimately got extremely lucky: The @Stanford game with Bell's crazy tip in for the win.
northbeachsf
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by northbeachsf »

Agree....I can totally live Dorsey's shot last night (make or miss), because you still have 40+ seconds on the clock and you have a 2 for 1 situation in that case. Especially, considering that he was on fire, shooting 90% from the floor.

The shot against UCLA by Brooks you could probably argue was not a very good basketball play...or high-risk...however you want to look at it. However, hard to question it now after seeing how clutch he has been this year (Cal, Tennessee, UCLA, etc).
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by oregontrack »

i have no problem with the team trying to take it to the basket in those situation (if time allows), but then you also run into the situation we had @ boise state last year. refs often swallow their whistles and normal contact gets even more physical, so you gotta be REALLY confident you can finish while getting taken out. aaron brooks was good at this -- he had some crazy off-the-glass game winners after taking his man off the dribble. i will never know how his game winner in tucson went in after hitting so high off the glass. physics shouldn't work like that.

games like ucla (and maybe cal? i can't remember the game clock situation) we had to shoot. dorsey could have drove, but his man backed off and we know he's confident shooting from a few feet behind the arc. no problem with any of those decisions.
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paduck
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by paduck »

Ducks10 wrote:You forgot the one game where we legitimately got extremely lucky: The @Stanford game with Bell's crazy tip in for the win.
Good call. I completely forgot that one.
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by buckmarkduck »

Teams who work hard, make their own luck. Besides I don't think yesterday was one of those lucky shot situations. The team actually missed a lot of shots we usually hit, especially Brooks who seemed to be short on wide open shots.
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by pudgejeff »

paduck wrote:We've got a couple days to kill before the Sweet 16 starts up, so I thought I'd start a discussion about end-of-game strategy. My theory, if you will, is that Oregon has been pretty lucky this year in close games as the clock winds down. Quick breakdown:

UCLA @ Oregon: Oregon down 2, Brooks with a long 3-pointer for the W
Oregon @ Cal: Tie game and another Brooks game-winning 3
Rhode Island vs. Oregon: Tie game, Dorsey with the dagger

These are all great moments in the season. AMAZING shots by really clutch players. When I use the term lucky, I don't mean the shot itself was luck -- I mean that, given the situations, these shots weren't the correct basketball play but worked out anyway.

Down two or tied, doesn't it make more sense to take the ball to the basket? Even last night, Oregon was in the double bonus and RI couldn't stop penetration without hand-checking and fouling. If Dorsey misses that shot last night, don't we all agree it's a foolish play? What do you think?

Again, just figured it might make for an interesting discussion.

PS: What an awesome year so far. Love this team's grit and fight.
I donno, I love the guard that will take that shot. I was yelling at him/the tv to just shoot the ball. Great teams in the NCAA tournament run on guards like that. Oregon has a pair this year, and we should ride them all the way.
paduck
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by paduck »

buckmarkduck wrote:Teams who work hard, make their own luck. Besides I don't think yesterday was one of those lucky shot situations. The team actually missed a lot of shots we usually hit, especially Brooks who seemed to be short on wide open shots.
Right. No argument here. Again, my point would be that a walk-up 3-pointer in a tie ballgame, with the other team in double bonus, isn't the traditional basketball play. But, I'll never complain over a huge win like that. I'm more wondering if other people would rather see a drive to the basket or to continue bombing away.
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by pudgejeff »

paduck wrote:
buckmarkduck wrote:Teams who work hard, make their own luck. Besides I don't think yesterday was one of those lucky shot situations. The team actually missed a lot of shots we usually hit, especially Brooks who seemed to be short on wide open shots.
Right. No argument here. Again, my point would be that a walk-up 3-pointer in a tie ballgame, with the other team in double bonus, isn't the traditional basketball play. But, I'll never complain over a huge win like that. I'm more wondering if other people would rather see a drive to the basket or to continue bombing away.
I think a lot of comes from pick up ball, games are won with walk up 3-pointer's because there are no refs. You can see him sizing him up, just watch him stare at his feet.
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by Duck07 »

paduck wrote:We've got a couple days to kill before the Sweet 16 starts up, so I thought I'd start a discussion about end-of-game strategy. My theory, if you will, is that Oregon has been pretty lucky this year in close games as the clock winds down. Quick breakdown:

UCLA @ Oregon: Oregon down 2, Brooks with a long 3-pointer for the W
Oregon @ Cal: Tie game and another Brooks game-winning 3
Rhode Island vs. Oregon: Tie game, Dorsey with the dagger

These are all great moments in the season. AMAZING shots by really clutch players. When I use the term lucky, I don't mean the shot itself was luck -- I mean that, given the situations, these shots weren't the correct basketball play but worked out anyway.

Down two or tied, doesn't it make more sense to take the ball to the basket? Even last night, Oregon was in the double bonus and RI couldn't stop penetration without hand-checking and fouling. If Dorsey misses that shot last night, don't we all agree it's a foolish play? What do you think?

Again, just figured it might make for an interesting discussion.

PS: What an awesome year so far. Love this team's grit and fight.
Given the situation, how can you say the first two examples weren't the correct play? What should they have done on those plays to get the right look? I'm all for talking end of game strategy but this is just using the final shot and making leaps. Had Dorsey missed, we'd all be talking more about the missed FTs than taking a rhythm jumper if we lost.
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by duckfan22 »

I think Dorsey because he's been on a role took the right shot at the right time. The defender was on his heals because Oregon had been taking the ball to the rim the whole game. I'm sure Altman had no problem with that shot.
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by Phenom »

I'm not gonna lie, I groaned when he shot that. Glad he did now.
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by dthomas=ddixon »

Altman was yelling at him to shoot it and broke down why in the post game presser. When you have a shooter like Dorsey, a straight away 3 guarded by a big man with his hands down is about as high a percentage shot as you're going to get. It was exactly the shot they wanted.
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paduck
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Re: End-of-game strategy -- is our luck due to run out?

Post by paduck »

Duck07 wrote:
paduck wrote:We've got a couple days to kill before the Sweet 16 starts up, so I thought I'd start a discussion about end-of-game strategy. My theory, if you will, is that Oregon has been pretty lucky this year in close games as the clock winds down. Quick breakdown:

UCLA @ Oregon: Oregon down 2, Brooks with a long 3-pointer for the W
Oregon @ Cal: Tie game and another Brooks game-winning 3
Rhode Island vs. Oregon: Tie game, Dorsey with the dagger

These are all great moments in the season. AMAZING shots by really clutch players. When I use the term lucky, I don't mean the shot itself was luck -- I mean that, given the situations, these shots weren't the correct basketball play but worked out anyway.

Down two or tied, doesn't it make more sense to take the ball to the basket? Even last night, Oregon was in the double bonus and RI couldn't stop penetration without hand-checking and fouling. If Dorsey misses that shot last night, don't we all agree it's a foolish play? What do you think?

Again, just figured it might make for an interesting discussion.

PS: What an awesome year so far. Love this team's grit and fight.
Given the situation, how can you say the first two examples weren't the correct play? What should they have done on those plays to get the right look? I'm all for talking end of game strategy but this is just using the final shot and making leaps. Had Dorsey missed, we'd all be talking more about the missed FTs than taking a rhythm jumper if we lost.
I guess I'm old school and more used to seeing a jumper off a ball-screen or another set play in the waning moments. Against Cal, if memory serves, the Ducks inbounded with roughly 8 seconds left. To me, you can get closer than a sized-up 3-pointer. Same with Dorsey last night (although the 2-for-1 was in play).

But my original post was more hypothetical than to dwell on games the Ducks have already won. How many times have you seen a guy take a 3-pointer with the score is tied or down 2, missed in the last possession, and the commentators are wondering why the team didn't get a better/higher-percentage look? I know the game is changing (thanks, Steph Curry), and I was just looking for others' thoughts to pass the time since we've got 4 days before the next Ducks basketball fix.
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