My brief 2016 post-draft rundown

[oregontrack]

there's always some late additions and surprise defections once schools starts in september, so i'm likely not working with a complete list. but some thoughts:

we have a lot of returning guys that easily fit into spots all around the diamond. add that it's hard to get much of a read on just how division one ready most of the recruits will be (save us getting superbly lucky and demi orimoloye decides to attend school), most of my predictions are pretty basic. doesn't mean a frosh can't come in and steal a spot. but:

DH brandon cuddy (senior), 1B aj balta (sophomore-redshirt) 2B daniel patzlaff (sophomore), SS mark karaviotis (junior), 3B matt eureste (senior), C tim susnara (sophomore) all kind of make sense, don't they? cuddy started 54 games, balta 56 (in 2014), patzlaff 33, karaviotis 55, eureste 43, susnara 36. of our infield, i think most highly of karaviotis and susnara. i see both of them being integral to our success offensively in 2016. tolman and heineman took most of the credit for our late-season charge, but karaviotis had a really strong finish. both quality defenders.

cuddy became the DH once heineman was moved to 1st, and i imagine he'll get in the line-up somewhere, even if it's at DH again. but 1B should go to balta, right? we have a few 1B prospects coming in, if someone is better with the glove, why not? similarly, eureste lost his job once tolman moved back to 3B, but unlike cuddy, he fell out of the line-up completely. can he bounce back? sure. he's not without talent, and he'll be a senior. but if the staff decides parker kelly is going to play 3B? i can see kelly there. we got six good years of 2B play with pulfer and payne, but nobody is going to confuse patzlaff for those guys. he kind of took over for tolman by default, but what if branden becker comes to school (17th rounder)? could certainly play 2B for a year before sliding over to take over for karaviotis.

the outfield is similarly stocked with familiar names. LF phil craig-st.louis (senior), CF austin grebeck (junior), and RF jakob goldfarb (sophomore) combined to start 145 games in 2015. good defenders all. craig-st.louis will probably be our 3-hole hitter next year. goldfarb very quietly had a nice freshman year and was moved to the top of the order halfway through. grebeck can be inconsistent with the bat, but when he gets hits he gets them in bunches. finished very strong.

let me be on record saying cole irvin is going to follow the jace frye career path. frye, the 2014 pac-12 pitcher of the year (oregon state), had tommy john after his freshman year, then returned midway through his sophomore season with mediocre results. he then won the aforementioned pitcher of the year award his junior year. struggling immediately after returning from TJ surgery is NOT uncommon, and that's what we saw with irvin this year. i'm not saying he's going to win pitcher of the year in '16, but there's no reason to think he can't be his freshman self again. that he didn't miss a start this year is a GREAT thing. had he come in and dominated immediately after surgery that would have been abnormal. i'm not worried about him.

and, we kind of lucked out with krook having his surgery when he did. he's good to go now, and will be able to work out his cobwebs this summer and in fall practice that irvin had to work out in live games. it's entirely possible we see the same matt krook we last saw in april of 2014. he'll have plenty of time to shake off the rust. add david peterson to the mix, and i'm a big believer in next year's rotation. could be the best ever here at oregon. might not be, but certainly has that potential. all have high round draft potential, and irvin and krook will both be pitching for the scouts.

i think harber probably signs. am i wrong? 16th round? he was taken much higher than expected, and i'm not sure his ceiling will ever get much higher. which means either jack karraker needs to be granted that additional year by the ncaa, or we're going to need someone to step up on weekdays. not super impressed by any of this year's young arms, perhaps a freshman will come in and wow us. or maybe paddon will get things under control.

in the bullpen, nogosek has to go to closer, right? seems like a natural transition. he doesn't have sherfy/reed/cleavinger stuff, but he can be effective there. cooper stiles will likely be a primary set-up guy. joe reta will have his opportunities, i'm sure. parker kelly could be a back-end guy, i believe the cardinals want him as a pitcher, not a position player. really hope he comes to school. outside of kelly, isaiah carranza (35th round) is probably our most decorated incoming pitcher.

SS karaviotis
CF grebeck
LF craig-st.louis
1B balta
C susnara
DH cuddy
RF goldfarb
2B patzlaff
3B eureste

eh? maybe kelly comes to school and takes eureste's spot, maybe someone takes patzlaff's. other than that...

LHP irvin
LHP peterson
LHP krook

LOOK AT ALL THE LEFTIES!


EDIT: ha, looks like we didn't have to wait long: kelly and sakamoto, westview teammates, both say they're coming to school.

http://highschoolsports.oregonlive.com/ ... cart_river

great news!

[TheMaehlMan]

Thanks for the breakdown oregontrack. I think that next year's team has a lot of potential. Your take on Irvin makes a lot of sense. Given that more time has lapsed since TJ surgery, it seems fair to expect him to be more consistent next year. A lot of pitchers are not comfortable during the first year back from TJ surgery and I think he can be more like he was as a Freshman. Hopefully Krook is good to go as well. When he was pitching at a high level as a FR, it was clear that he was the most talented pitcher that the Ducks have had since the rebirth of the program. Some may say that Tyler Anderson would be the better pick for that nod, but Krook's stuff is nasty. I think it will help Krook that there has been more time to recover given that the injury happened fairly early in his FR year. If Krook and Irvin can regain dominant form, this team will win a lot of games. Peterson could take a huge jump as well given his skill set.

The other area that Oregon has to be better at is fielding. For most of the Horton era, the Ducks have been an elite fielding team that did not commit many errors. I hope that next year is a return to that form. Lastly, I'm hoping that there is more consistency in the lineup. Oregon won't be an elite hitting team but if there are less easy outs that would be big. The most important thing is having a number of hitters that can put pressure on opposing pitchers. Horton ball will manufacture runs and having more consistency can create more scoring opportunities. It may seem premature, but I think next year's team has a chance to be one of the best teams during the Horton Duck era. It was big that the Ducks made the postseason this past season even with all of this team's injuries and issues. That will provide the springboard to get back to competing for conference titles and with some luck even a trip to Omaha.