NDSU/OREGON 2020

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ATLBison
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ATLBison »

thebootfitter wrote:
ATLBison wrote:Then I guess you should have no problem handling us, right? What happens if we win? Do we get your respect as a top 10 college football team period or will we hear another barrage of excuses?
Dude. You're worse than Lakes. I'm a fellow Bison fan. I just happen to be a little more rational than you are presenting yourself to be so far.

Even if Oregon finishes the season at #1 this year and we beat them next year, it doesn't mean we are a top 10-15 FBS team. It just means that we beat one of the best FBS teams.

I think we can generally be competitive with anyone outside the top 5-10 FBS teams each year, and there is data to support that. But to say that we are a top 10-15 FBS team requires a lot more data or support than you've been able to provide thus far.
How exactly do you believe rankings work? Based on your statement Minnesota shouldn't currently be in the top 10. If you debate that, you don't understand my point. One game (Penn State) drove them to the current #8. The rest of their SOS wasn't flattering in the least. You beat a great team, like a top 5, and then we have knocked off #13 and #5. How do you not understand that would make us a top 10-15 team? Especially this Bison team that I see in 2-3 years as having the potential to easily be the best NDSU has ever produced. Why are you arguing if you're a FAN? For how long? Please don't dispute based on the arguement that we only play FBS teams once every 3 years now. How is that our problem when ADs won't return phone calls? Based on all evidence, we're a top 15 college football team period. I'm BEGGING someone to ACTUALLY prove me wrong. Didn't know that I'd have to defend our team to "our own."
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

ATLBison wrote:
thebootfitter wrote:
ATLBison wrote:Then I guess you should have no problem handling us, right? What happens if we win? Do we get your respect as a top 10 college football team period or will we hear another barrage of excuses?
Dude. You're worse than Lakes. I'm a fellow Bison fan. I just happen to be a little more rational than you are presenting yourself to be so far.

Even if Oregon finishes the season at #1 this year and we beat them next year, it doesn't mean we are a top 10-15 FBS team. It just means that we beat one of the best FBS teams.

I think we can generally be competitive with anyone outside the top 5-10 FBS teams each year, and there is data to support that. But to say that we are a top 10-15 FBS team requires a lot more data or support than you've been able to provide thus far.
How exactly do you believe rankings work? Based on your statement Minnesota shouldn't currently be in the top 10. If you debate that, you don't understand my point. One game (Penn State) drove them to the current #8. The rest of their SOS wasn't flattering in the least. You beat a great team, like a top 5, and then we have knocked off #13 and #5. How do you not understand that would make us a top 10-15 team? Especially this Bison team that I see in 2-3 years as having the potential to easily be the best NDSU has ever produced. Why are you arguing if you're a FAN? For how long? Please don't dispute based on the arguement that we only play FBS teams once every 3 years now. How is that our problem when ADs won't return phone calls? Based on all evidence, we're a top 15 college football team period. I'm BEGGING someone to ACTUALLY prove me wrong. Didn't know that I'd have to defend our team to "our own."
Wow. Not even sure it's worth pointing out all the errors in your "logic" here.

The way it works when you make a crazy claim in anything is that YOU are responsible for backing it up with evidence. It's not up to anyone else to prove you wrong. And you have offered no evidence to support your position. Well, I guess except for a single weak argument that we beat a #13 ranked Iowa at the beginning of the season in 2016. An Iowa that ended the season at 8-5 and outside the top 25.
ATLBison
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ATLBison »

thebootfitter wrote:
ATLBison wrote:
thebootfitter wrote:
ATLBison wrote:Then I guess you should have no problem handling us, right? What happens if we win? Do we get your respect as a top 10 college football team period or will we hear another barrage of excuses?
Dude. You're worse than Lakes. I'm a fellow Bison fan. I just happen to be a little more rational than you are presenting yourself to be so far.

Even if Oregon finishes the season at #1 this year and we beat them next year, it doesn't mean we are a top 10-15 FBS team. It just means that we beat one of the best FBS teams.

I think we can generally be competitive with anyone outside the top 5-10 FBS teams each year, and there is data to support that. But to say that we are a top 10-15 FBS team requires a lot more data or support than you've been able to provide thus far.
How exactly do you believe rankings work? Based on your statement Minnesota shouldn't currently be in the top 10. If you debate that, you don't understand my point. One game (Penn State) drove them to the current #8. The rest of their SOS wasn't flattering in the least. You beat a great team, like a top 5, and then we have knocked off #13 and #5. How do you not understand that would make us a top 10-15 team? Especially this Bison team that I see in 2-3 years as having the potential to easily be the best NDSU has ever produced. Why are you arguing if you're a FAN? For how long? Please don't dispute based on the arguement that we only play FBS teams once every 3 years now. How is that our problem when ADs won't return phone calls? Based on all evidence, we're a top 15 college football team period. I'm BEGGING someone to ACTUALLY prove me wrong. Didn't know that I'd have to defend our team to "our own."
Wow. Not even sure it's worth pointing out all the errors in your "logic" here.

The way it works when you make a crazy claim in anything is that YOU are responsible for backing it up with evidence. It's not up to anyone else to prove you wrong. And you have offered no evidence to support your position.

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How do you think this thread started? I said IF we win. That WILL BE the evidence. I'm in the heart of SEC country. I know what the best football in college looks like. I was there when Georgia beat Notre Dame and Clemson destroyed Charlotte. No, NDSU likely could not beat the top 4-5 schools in college football. However, beating #5 definitely proves my point that we're a top 10-15. Where would you put NDSU in terms of all of college football if you're such a "fan?"
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

ATLBison wrote:How do you think this thread started? I said IF we win. That WILL BE the evidence. I'm in the heart of SEC country. I know what the best football in college looks like. I was there when Georgia beat Notre Dame and Clemson destroyed Charlotte. No, NDSU likely could not beat the top 4-5 schools in college football. However, beating #5 definitely proves my point that we're a top 10-15. Where would you put NDSU in terms of all of college football if you're such a "fan?"
Have you not read this thread? It's okay if you haven't. I have stated at least once that I think we are legitimately a top 30-ish team in all of college football. (Maybe I said 25-ish. I don't remember. 30-ish is probably more supportable.)

If Oregon is ranked #5 to start the season next year and NDSU beats them, Oregon would drop like a rock in the rankings and everybody would dismiss them for being over-ranked. They'd have to earn their way back up the rankings with a few signature wins. Meanwhile, NDSU would continue their streak of beating whatever FBS teams that agree to play with them. The Bison would probably get a few token votes in the AP poll. We might even get enough to break the top 25. Our highest ever ranking in the AP poll was #27, so breaking the top 25 would be pretty cool.

The AP poll is really just a collection of best guesses at the relative strength of teams, typically limited to FBS teams. And like any human poll at the beginning of the year, best guesses are often way off. It's hard to predict exactly how a team will perform throughout the season, especially if some key players have changed.

In the meantime, NDSU would play a relatively weak schedule the rest of the season compared to other top 25 teams. We may continue to get token votes in the AP poll as long as we remain undefeated, but we will not have the ability to "prove" that we are a top 10-15 team because we will not have any other signature wins from an FBS perspective.

Now, if Oregon beats Ohio State and wins out after their humbling loss to NDSU, there may be some evidence to justify considering NDSU a top 10-15 team at the end of the year. Certainly stronger evidence than beating Iowa a few years ago. I'd be willing to entertain the idea at that point, and I bet the sports media would be as well.

That's all conjecture, of course. It's fun to think about. But I think the game will be fun, regardless of how the score board looks at the end.

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thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

At the risk of coming across as pedantic, you didn't actually say IF we win, then we'd be top 15. You said -- and I've included your quote below for easy reference -- "NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS." No qualifiers there.
ATLBison wrote:With that said you need to understand, NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS. I know you'll scoff and laugh at that and you have every right to your opinion. However, a 122-8 record since 2011, 6 consecutive FBS wins, and a HUGE lack of returned phone calls by FBS AD's proves otherwise pretty convincingly.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GrandpaDuck »

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ATLBison
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ATLBison »

thebootfitter wrote:At the risk of coming across as pedantic, you didn't actually say IF we win, then we'd be top 15. You said -- and I've included your quote below for easy reference -- "NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS." No qualifiers there.
ATLBison wrote:With that said you need to understand, NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS. I know you'll scoff and laugh at that and you have every right to your opinion. However, a 122-8 record since 2011, 6 consecutive FBS wins, and a HUGE lack of returned phone calls by FBS AD's proves otherwise pretty convincingly.
Before being so confrontational and trying to call me out, please make sure you read everything I write. Including the post where I said:

"Then I guess you should have no problem handling us, right? What happens if we win? Do we get your respect as a top 10 college football team period or will we hear another barrage of excuses?"

I agree that next year the only TRUE way to prove (according to the polls) that we're top 10-15 is if Oregon goes on to win against Ohio State. You cannot argue that beating Iowa (who went on to defeat Michigan shortly thereafter) and then Oregon (who hypothetically defeats OSU the following week) puts NDSU at a top 15. Sorry, you can't argue that. ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE A FAN.
droop10
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by droop10 »

ATLBison wrote:
thebootfitter wrote:At the risk of coming across as pedantic, you didn't actually say IF we win, then we'd be top 15. You said -- and I've included your quote below for easy reference -- "NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS." No qualifiers there.
ATLBison wrote:With that said you need to understand, NDSU is a top 10-15 FBS team stuck in the FCS. I know you'll scoff and laugh at that and you have every right to your opinion. However, a 122-8 record since 2011, 6 consecutive FBS wins, and a HUGE lack of returned phone calls by FBS AD's proves otherwise pretty convincingly.
Before being so confrontational and trying to call me out, please make sure you read everything I write. Including the post where I said:

"Then I guess you should have no problem handling us, right? What happens if we win? Do we get your respect as a top 10 college football team period or will we hear another barrage of excuses?"

I agree that next year the only TRUE way to prove (according to the polls) that we're top 10-15 is if Oregon goes on to win against Ohio State. You cannot argue that beating Iowa (who went on to defeat Michigan shortly thereafter) and then Oregon (who hypothetically defeats OSU the following week) puts NDSU at a top 15. Sorry, you can't argue that. ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE A FAN.
Sorry to interject on this back and forth, but I'm not sure how beating an unranked team (preseason rankings are pointless, let's focus on where they ended up) in 2016, and another team 4 years later would prove that the team is a top 15 school. Many FBS schools beat unranked 8-5 squads every year.

I'm also not going to be as dismissive as others in this post. I think there's a middle ground, where it's not as close as these models are making it out to be, but also not the cupcake match-up that some of the Oregon fans seem to think it will be. Oregon will be replacing most of their offensive line, their QB, TE, and at least 1 WR from the starting lineup. I have no idea how effective the offense will be in game 1 of the season, when teams typically play sloppy regardless of the number of returning starters.
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

ATLBison wrote:Before being so confrontational and trying to call me out, please make sure you read everything I write. Including the post where I said:

"Then I guess you should have no problem handling us, right? What happens if we win? Do we get your respect as a top 10 college football team period or will we hear another barrage of excuses?"

I agree that next year the only TRUE way to prove (according to the polls) that we're top 10-15 is if Oregon goes on to win against Ohio State. You cannot argue that beating Iowa (who went on to defeat Michigan shortly thereafter) and then Oregon (who hypothetically defeats OSU the following week) puts NDSU at a top 15. Sorry, you can't argue that. ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE A FAN.
You're funny. I'm with Grandpa Duck. I think I'll just sit back and observe how this unfolds for a bit.

(P.S. It doesn't really matter how you label NDSU. They're a damn good football team and they can be very fun to watch, especially when they get chances to play FBS teams that are supposed to beat them easily. Just enjoy the ride.)

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Duck07 »

If NDSU played a 12-game season in P5 conference they might go to a bowl game.
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thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

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Duck07 wrote:If NDSU played a 12-game season in P5 conference they might go to a bowl game.
Dang! That's a level of respect I don't think I've ever heard or seen outside of NDSU fans themselves. Seriously. No snark. I think you're probably right.

You have to ask the question, though, whether that assumes the FCS NDSU team as it currently exists? With only 63 scholarships to offer and FCS level funding, coaching, and facilities? Or does that assume a step up in all those things consistent with P-5 FBS peers.

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Duck07 »

thebootfitter wrote:
Duck07 wrote:If NDSU played a 12-game season in P5 conference they might go to a bowl game.
Dang! That's a level of respect I don't think I've ever heard or seen outside of NDSU fans themselves. Seriously. No snark. I think you're probably right.

You have to ask the question, though, whether that assumes the FCS NDSU team as it currently exists? With only 63 scholarships to offer and FCS level funding, coaching, and facilities? Or does that assume a step up in all those things consistent with P-5 FBS peers.

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It's a step-up to a play a 12-game schedule week in and week out with injuries. Oregon and USC have still maintained Bowl-Eligible play with rosters less than a full 85. It's one thing to take down a higher ranked team in one-week (on any given day) its another to maintain a consistent and high level of play over the course of a season with the bumps and bruises that happen.
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ATLBison
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ATLBison »

thebootfitter wrote:
Duck07 wrote:If NDSU played a 12-game season in P5 conference they might go to a bowl game.
Dang! That's a level of respect I don't think I've ever heard or seen outside of NDSU fans themselves. Seriously. No snark. I think you're probably right.

You have to ask the question, though, whether that assumes the FCS NDSU team as it currently exists? With only 63 scholarships to offer and FCS level funding, coaching, and facilities? Or does that assume a step up in all those things consistent with P-5 FBS peers.

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Are you from ND or MN?
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

Duck07 wrote:It's a step-up to a play a 12-game schedule week in and week out with injuries. Oregon and USC have still maintained Bowl-Eligible play with rosters less than a full 85. It's one thing to take down a higher ranked team in one-week (on any given day) its another to maintain a consistent and high level of play over the course of a season with the bumps and bruises that happen.
Yeah, I get what you are trying to say, but there are some valid counter points:

* NDSU typically plays 15-game seasons due to a 24-team playoff field that can add as many as five games after the regular season is over. This year, they have they could end up playing 16 games if they make it all the way to the championship game again. So the length of the season would actually be shorter in FBS than what NDSU sees in FCS.

* Injuries are just as likely to happen in FCS as they are in FBS. Division I FCS players are generally of similar size and strength as their FBS counterparts. The fastest players may be a step or two faster in FBS. The difference is that FBS teams can offer up to 85 scholarships to build greater depth (in theory at least) than an FCS team that can only offer 63. So the same number of injuries throughout a given year on an FCS team vs an FBS team will generally affect an FCS team more. NDSU is not immune to this difference, but they seem to have comparable depth at skill positions and elsewhere to many FBS teams.

* The level of competition that they'd face in a P5 conference would definitely be a step up. Probably two+ steps up. Though the Missouri Valley Football Conference is generally considered by computer algorithms a tougher conference than some of the low end G5 conferences, so the difference here may not be as great as expected. Performance on the field against FBS foes generally supports the idea that the MVFC has some good quality competition. NDSU does also play some lowly competition which doesn't help the Strength of Schedule, but then they also end up playing some of the best teams across the FCS landscape in the playoffs, so that balances out the softer teams a bit.

* There is evidence to suggest that NDSU's strength and conditioning program may be better than some FBS teams. A typical scenario from past FBS games that NDSU has played is that as the second half wears on, it becomes evident that the FBS team is wearing down a bit. Hands on hips. A little slower to line up. Holes start opening up for the NDSU offense.

Until that far-off someday when NDSU gets an invitation to an FBS conference, we will have to be satisfied with using our relatively rare FBS games as our on-the-field measuring stick against FBS competition. We do have various computer rating algorithms that suggest we're in the same ballpark as, say, SMU or Texas A&M. Or USC for a Pac-12 comparison.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

I hope everyone realizes that computer rating systems are not a substitute for the game being played on the field. They simply represent statistical probabilities based on a bunch of numbers from actual games plugged into a calculation to predict on the field winners and losers with some degree of variance or uncertainty. In reality, the two arguably best and most commonly cited computer models generally predict the winner of DI college football games correctly around 75% of the time.

There is arguably some potential for error if teams are not well connected -- such as when there are not a lot of common opponents in the data set. (This is often the case with FBS vs FCS match ups.) However, in the few years that I tracked actual games in relation to the contemporary computer models, I did not find a statistically significant difference in the accuracy of FBS vs FCS match ups compared to match ups within the respective sub-divisions.

All that being said... I just ran the Massey match up simulation tool (https://www.masseyratings.com/) on a best of seven series, and the current Oregon team just barely edged out NDSU 4 games to 3.

I can't wait for the game to be played! :-)
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