What Vegas Thinks About Whether We're In With Two Wins

[Tray Dub]

Sunday Night Football isn't much fun tonight so I crunched some numbers to see what sportsbooks are saying about our chances to make the playoffs and how that compared to our chances to win the next two games.

Skip this paragraph if you don't care about the technical side. I used DraftKings for the Oregon-Oregon State moneyline (-675/+490) and the 'Will Oregon Make the Playoffs' line (-165/+135); I used FanDuel for the Oregon-Washington moneyline (-315/+250) since it isn't posted on DraftKings. I then used an online devigging tool to yield a fair value for each line, which essentially means removing the percentage that sportsbooks take off each side of the line to ensure their profit (I'll admit I don't totally understand how the devigging tool works its magic). That resulted in a Ducks moneyline of -514 for the OSU game and -266 for the UW game, and a line of -146 for Oregon to make the playoffs. If you convert those odds into percentages, they imply that Oregon has an 83.7% chance to beat Oregon State and a 72.7% chance of beating Washington. The percentage chance of us winning both those games is the same as multiplying those two percentages together: 60.8%. Meanwhile, the 'Will Oregon Make the Playoffs' line converts to us having a 59.3% of making the playoffs.

The takeaway? The current sportsbook odds suggest that there is only a 1.5% chance that we win both of our remaining games but still miss the playoffs. According to these lines, there is a 60.8% chance that we win both of our games and a 59.3% chance that we make the playoffs. The slim difference between those two figures is, as far as I can tell, the entire possibility that we are left out with two more wins.

[lmduck]

Sunday Night Football isn't much fun tonight so I crunched some numbers to see what sportsbooks are saying about our chances to make the playoffs and how that compared to our chances to win the next two games.

Skip this paragraph if you don't care about the technical side. I used DraftKings for the Oregon-Oregon State moneyline (-675/+490) and the 'Will Oregon Make the Playoffs' line (-165/+135); I used FanDuel for the Oregon-Washington moneyline (-315/+250) since it isn't posted on DraftKings. I then used an online devigging tool to yield a fair value for each line, which essentially means removing the percentage that sportsbooks take off each side of the line to ensure their profit (I'll admit I don't totally understand how the devigging tool works its magic). That resulted in a Ducks moneyline of -514 for the OSU game and -266 for the UW game, and a line of -146 for Oregon to make the playoffs. If you convert those odds into percentages, they imply that Oregon has an 83.7% chance to beat Oregon State and a 72.7% chance of beating Washington. The percentage chance of us winning both those games is the same as multiplying those two percentages together: 60.8%. Meanwhile, the 'Will Oregon Make the Playoffs' line converts to us having a 59.3% of making the playoffs.

The takeaway? The current sportsbook odds suggest that there is only a 1.5% chance that we win both of our remaining games but still miss the playoffs. According to these lines, there is a 60.8% chance that we win both of our games and a 59.3% chance that we make the playoffs. The slim difference between those two figures is, as far as I can tell, the entire possibility that we are left out with two more wins.

Wow- thank you for your efforts. Encouraging for sure. Vegas has been pretty accurate this year so let's hope their streak continues


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