Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

[Phalanx]

If Nurk signs the Q.O. and they keep Layman, that would be 15. Man, that's depressing. The Blazers have about 8 guys on the roster that would never sniff the court on most playoff teams.

[greenyellow]

Their only other option at this point is using their traded player exception, but it doesn't seem like they've got any players teams actually want or players they want that are worth trading for. If it goes unused or is used on more dead weight, it'd likely cement Olshey as one of the worst GMs in the league. Seems his plan is to hope Collins and Swanigan develop enough to take over for Davis, Nurkic resigns, one or both the rookies contribute something, and a few of their recycled former first rounders finally turn into contributors. Considering how far they seem to be falling behind other Western Conference teams, I'm wondering when Allen has had enough of his incompetence and/or CJ and Damian demand trades.

[Duck24]

What a joke. Let Ed Davis walk for less than 50% of what Meyers is making and sign another version of Jake Layman and Planet Pat. I wouldn’t fault Dame one bit if he asked for a trade. Olshey has ruined Dame’s chances of winning in Portland in his prime. I hope Olshey bifurcates himself out of Portland in the not too distant future.

[Phalanx]

I'm looking for an update on the Blazers salary situation. It seems like keeping Layman and signing Nurk to the Q.O. might put them over the tax threshold, but it's hard to say without seeing the contract numbers.

You have to think out of Swanigan, Layman, Simons, Trent, Stauskas, Leonard, Papagiannis, and Baldwin, someone is going to make a good rotation player this year. That's pretty much the only interesting aspect of the Blazers in the upcoming season. We should do a poll or something.

[Merganzer]

LeBron just signed with the Lakers: 4 yrs, 153.3. George has signed a new deal with OKC. Do the Lakers have enough to get San Antonio to trade Kawhi Leonard? The Lakers will be better next season, so will Denver, Phoenix probably will be improved, and so far, the Blazers have lost Davis, and added Stauskus.

[greenyellow]

I doubt LA makes a trade for Kawhi since he's stated that he wants to sign with them eventually. Unless they can sign Cousins, I think the Lakers will sign a bunch of short-term deals this year to stay competitive and then wait for Kawhi to enter FA next summer. As for how this affects the Blazers, they may not even be a playoff team with how much the rest of conference has improved. I believe there's two courses of actions that Olshey can do: 1) keep building around Dame/CJ/Collins and whoever else they can draft/sign and wait until GSW, LeBron/LAL and Harden/Paul/Houston age out or implode due to salary cap issues or, 2) start trading off CJ/Dame, build around Collins/Simons the next few years, and tank to build up some higher-end draft picks.

[Merganzer]

I doubt LA makes a trade for Kawhi since he's stated that he wants to sign with them eventually. Unless they can sign Cousins, I think the Lakers will sign a bunch of short-term deals this year to stay competitive and then wait for Kawhi to enter FA next summer. As for how this affects the Blazers, they may not even be a playoff team with how much the rest of conference has improved. I believe there's two courses of actions that Olshey can do: 1) keep building around Dame/CJ/Collins and whoever else they can draft/sign and wait until GSW, LeBron/LAL and Harden/Paul/Houston age out or implode due to salary cap issues or, 2) start trading off CJ/Dame, build around Collins/Simons the next few years, and tank to build up some higher-end draft picks.

Agree about Kawhai & Lakers. It will be a strange atmosphere in SA with Leonard & the team at such a bad place. The talent on the Lakers with James is probably good enough now to win the East. But, in the West they will vie for Home court. I don't see OKC doing better than they did last season, Carmelo is the weakest part of a big 3 in the NBA. I expect the Pelicans to build on last season's run. Not new, but hasn't Lillard/CJ reached their ceiling, and the attractiveness CJ can bring via a trade only diminishes each year he gets older.

[Boom]

Past two offseasons have been awful for the Blazers. Olshey is a dud. I know Paul Allen doesn’t want to rebuild, but they blew it.

[greenyellow]

I think if Portland barely or fails to make the playoffs next year, I think CJ and Dame's days in Portland may be numbered. Without the ability to sign major stars via FA/trades or get immediate draft to match up with them, it may be best to tank and accumulate draft picks that pushes their window to 3-4 years after GSW, LAL, and Houston likely finish their windows with their current stars. Only problem with that thinking is that those teams may continue past that window and that teams like Boston, Philly, and potentially Phoenix and/or Dallas could end up being roadblocks.

[oregontrack]

i foresee stauskas being an upgrade over planet pat off the bench, and i'm a big believer in our two rookie big men becoming solid contributors, so as hard as it is to swallow that ed wanted to return but we lost him to brooklyn... for less than $5 mil... i think we'll ultimately be OK there, too.

but i agree we're staring down the wrong end of a low playoff seed/lottery season. we got the 3 seed because we were the healthiest of the scrap heap of teams behind houston and golden state, and lillard was phenomenal. unfortunately a lot of teams who finished just a few games behind us got better, and that doesn't even include non-playoff teams like the lakers, who just added the best player in the world, or dallas, who added a ready-made all star-caliber wing and deandre jordan down low, or phoenix, who may be a season or two away but certainly won't be the sad sack pushover they've been.

of course, if we lose nurk, the above paragraph becomes a pipe dream and we can book our tickets to the draft lottery now.

[nogerO]

i foresee stauskas being an upgrade over planet pat off the bench, and i'm a big believer in our two rookie big men becoming solid contributors, so as hard as it is to swallow that ed wanted to return but we lost him to brooklyn... for less than $5 mil... i think we'll ultimately be OK there, too.

but i agree we're staring down the wrong end of a low playoff seed/lottery season. we got the 3 seed because we were the healthiest of the scrap heap of teams behind houston and golden state, and lillard was phenomenal. unfortunately a lot of teams who finished just a few games behind us got better, and that doesn't even include non-playoff teams like the lakers, who just added the best player in the world, or dallas, who added a ready-made all star-caliber wing and deandre jordan down low, or phoenix, who may be a season or two away but certainly won't be the sad sack pushover they've been.

of course, if we lose nurk, the above paragraph becomes a pipe dream and we can book our tickets to the draft lottery now.

Yep

[Phalanx]

My thesis since 2016 has been that the tax threshold will dictate what Olshey does to a large extent, since it costs the Blazers (or Paul Allen) so much to cross that line, not only in extra penalties, but also in revenue sharing dollars. The majority of the moves since then have been very consistent with that thesis. Even when Olshey gets himself into tax territory, he has been able to wiggle out of it at the trade deadline by paying someone to take on some of his salary, like he did with Vonleh at the trade deadline this year. As long as the payroll at the end of the year is under the tax line, they escape paying it.

So, going by this thesis, I suspect that Olshey knows that Nurk is going to sign the Q.O., and that even though that will put them into the tax, he will wiggle out of it again by the end of the year. Interestingly, Olshey was apparently (according to Woj) trying to sign Mario Hezonja, who ended up signing with the Knicks for $6.5 million. The cash in trade limit for next year is $5.243 million, and I am guessing that's roughly as far as Olshey could go in the bidding. Of course, this is all speculation, but as I say, the idea that this has governed the Blazers' moves seems to have strong evidence behind it.

[Duck07]

This team is going to end up trading someone or something away at some point this season which is why I really don't like the decision to not resign Ed. At the very least you could have moved him later on as part of a package that looks like it will ultimately be about a few seasons from now instead of right now. CJ to the Eastern Conference would be the best thing that happened for him and hopefully it could be the same spark as GS had trading Monta.

[greenyellow]

So Lakers renounce Randle and sign Rondo. Seems they're cutting salary to open space for either Cousins and/or Kawhi.

[oregontrack]

except rondo will make almost double what randle was scheduled to make, so that particular 1-for-1 move doesn't help them in that regard.

lakers are actually on a bit of a shopping spree at the moment, with rondo, caldwell-pope, stephenson, and mcgee all coming to terms with the team after lebron made his decision. LA's capspace is closing up, fast. things can be done -- stretching luol deng, for instance -- but i get the feeling that the lakers are content to sign all these guys to be competitive this year, but then they all come off the books next year in order to make room for kawhi.

demarcus cousins would be taking a substantial paycut to join the leblakers. new orleans has his bird rights. not saying it can't/won't happen, but he'd be leaving a ton of money on the table and demarcus cousins has never struck me as the giving sort.