Looking back at past drafts (2024)
Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:24 pm
5 years seems like the right time (well 5.5) to look back at 2024's draft and analyze what we saw in the lottery.
I'll add to this later, but let's get this started:
1. Phoenix Suns | LeBron James Jr SF 6'8'' 212 19 C+ A- B- B C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2027 - All-Defensive Second Team
2028 - All-Star Game Participant
2028 - All-League Third Team
2028 - All-Defensive Team
The #1 pick of the draft comes through as the best player of the draft so far, only player to make All-League, only All-Star.
2. Golden State Warriors (from Pacers) | Scottie Barnes SF 6'7'' 235 21 B- B+ C B C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Second Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
Career numbers paint him as a strong solid player, but not a superstar. Last 2 years shows a significant jump, seems unlikely he ever really challenges Bronny, but he's on pace to maybe become an All-Star.
3. Phoenix Suns (from Rockets) | Jalen Green SG 6'5'' 210 22 C+ B+ C C+ D+ A
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2028 - All-Defensive Second Team
A bit of a late bloomer, only other player to make a non-rookie league-wide award list has a real chance to be the 2nd best all-around player in the draft based on his defense.
4. Orlando Magic | N'Faly Dante C 7'0'' 253 22 C D+ C- B- B+ A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
A solid enough big man for a rotation, but certainly not what one hopes for in a top 4 pick, blocks and rebounds have ticked up recently but not significantly, so what you see is probably what you get going forward.
5. Toronto Raptors | Jalen Johnson PG 6'7'' 181 21 C C+ B A- C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2025 - Rookie Game MVP
Had a bit of a breakout the last 2, particular this year, big scoring and assist jump, though a turnover spike as well. Very good player at a deep position.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers | Jaden Springer SG 6'3'' 202 20 C A- C- C+ C A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Springer 157 20.7 0.443 0.942 0.39 3.3 0.9 1 0.2 1.2 4.1
Currently unsigned, the first true bust of this draft, his percentages shooting are actually quite decent, but just never made it into a regular player.
7. Philadelphia 76ers | Jaemyn Brakefield PF 6'9'' 225 22 B- C- C C B- A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Brakefield 148 13.2 0.408 0.579 0 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 2.2
Currently Unsigned, another bust but his is more clear, the man can rebound, but couldn't get it done with the ball in his hands, poor percentages decent amount of turnovers.
8. Boston Celtics (from Warriors) | Marcus Bagley SF 6'7'' 218 21 C+ C C B D+ A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Bagley out of league no stats available
While Marvin dominates, Marcus quickly found himself not only off a roster but out of the player pool.
9. Chicago Bulls | Xavier Foster PF 6'9'' 234 22 B+ C- C B- C+ B
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - Rookie Game MVP
2024 - Rookie of the Year
2024 - All-Rookie Team
The last of the truly strong players in this lottery, Foster is a very good player who hasn't quite made it to the all-star level.
10. Golden State Warriors (from Lakers) | Justice Ajogbor C 6'10'' 235 22 C C- C- B- B- A
Not a bust this late, but mostly a bench player at this point.
11. Denver Nuggets | Hunter Dickinson C 6'11'' 257 21 C+ C- D B- B B
Another bench player, but may be on his way out of the league, only 1 game played this season, and without a good TC next year probably done.
12. Portland Trailblazers | Jason Harris PF 6'9'' 224 21 C C D+ B B B
Fringe bench big, probably on his last run in the league.
13. New York Knicks | Jamal Mashburn Jr. SG 6'5'' 217 21 C C C- C C A
Out of DASL completely, last pick of the lottery isn't where you expect too much, but not even getting a bench player out of it is tough.
Past the lottery... it is very rough.
There is one league-wide award winner....
15. Charlotte Hornets | Brandon Boston PF 6'8'' 230 22 C+ C+ D+ C+ C+ B
Brandon Boston, who has become a decent big off the bench, peaking with a 2026 Sixth man of the year.
And finally, the late bloomer:
25. Boston Celtics | Jadon Jones SF 6'5'' 218 21 B A- D+ D+ D+ C
A late breakout in his 5th year, finally translating his great percentages to a volume increase, mostly just a scorer. but a really good scorer.
TAKEAWAYS
The top 5 was actually quite good, no busts and several potential franchise guys.
The rest of the lottery was a mess
The next three guys (6-8) didn't make it past their first contract, the last pick in the lottery didn't either and 2 more are deep on a bench and may not be on a roster next season. Only 2 other players in the draft are starter quality.
Now this is only 1 draft, but it does seem to be a common trend. The very top of drafts is usually excellent, but everything after the top 3-5 is kind of a crapshoot, with no real difference is prejected outcomes between 7-10 and 17-20.
I'll add to this later, but let's get this started:
1. Phoenix Suns | LeBron James Jr SF 6'8'' 212 19 C+ A- B- B C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2027 - All-Defensive Second Team
2028 - All-Star Game Participant
2028 - All-League Third Team
2028 - All-Defensive Team
The #1 pick of the draft comes through as the best player of the draft so far, only player to make All-League, only All-Star.
2. Golden State Warriors (from Pacers) | Scottie Barnes SF 6'7'' 235 21 B- B+ C B C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Second Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
Career numbers paint him as a strong solid player, but not a superstar. Last 2 years shows a significant jump, seems unlikely he ever really challenges Bronny, but he's on pace to maybe become an All-Star.
3. Phoenix Suns (from Rockets) | Jalen Green SG 6'5'' 210 22 C+ B+ C C+ D+ A
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2028 - All-Defensive Second Team
A bit of a late bloomer, only other player to make a non-rookie league-wide award list has a real chance to be the 2nd best all-around player in the draft based on his defense.
4. Orlando Magic | N'Faly Dante C 7'0'' 253 22 C D+ C- B- B+ A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
A solid enough big man for a rotation, but certainly not what one hopes for in a top 4 pick, blocks and rebounds have ticked up recently but not significantly, so what you see is probably what you get going forward.
5. Toronto Raptors | Jalen Johnson PG 6'7'' 181 21 C C+ B A- C A
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - All-Rookie Team
2025 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2025 - Rookie Game MVP
Had a bit of a breakout the last 2, particular this year, big scoring and assist jump, though a turnover spike as well. Very good player at a deep position.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers | Jaden Springer SG 6'3'' 202 20 C A- C- C+ C A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Springer 157 20.7 0.443 0.942 0.39 3.3 0.9 1 0.2 1.2 4.1
Currently unsigned, the first true bust of this draft, his percentages shooting are actually quite decent, but just never made it into a regular player.
7. Philadelphia 76ers | Jaemyn Brakefield PF 6'9'' 225 22 B- C- C C B- A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Brakefield 148 13.2 0.408 0.579 0 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 2.2
Currently Unsigned, another bust but his is more clear, the man can rebound, but couldn't get it done with the ball in his hands, poor percentages decent amount of turnovers.
8. Boston Celtics (from Warriors) | Marcus Bagley SF 6'7'' 218 21 C+ C C B D+ A
Name Games MPG FG % FT % 3P % RPG APG SPG BPG TOPG PPG
Bagley out of league no stats available
While Marvin dominates, Marcus quickly found himself not only off a roster but out of the player pool.
9. Chicago Bulls | Xavier Foster PF 6'9'' 234 22 B+ C- C B- C+ B
2024 - All-Star Rookie Game Participant
2024 - Rookie Game MVP
2024 - Rookie of the Year
2024 - All-Rookie Team
The last of the truly strong players in this lottery, Foster is a very good player who hasn't quite made it to the all-star level.
10. Golden State Warriors (from Lakers) | Justice Ajogbor C 6'10'' 235 22 C C- C- B- B- A
Not a bust this late, but mostly a bench player at this point.
11. Denver Nuggets | Hunter Dickinson C 6'11'' 257 21 C+ C- D B- B B
Another bench player, but may be on his way out of the league, only 1 game played this season, and without a good TC next year probably done.
12. Portland Trailblazers | Jason Harris PF 6'9'' 224 21 C C D+ B B B
Fringe bench big, probably on his last run in the league.
13. New York Knicks | Jamal Mashburn Jr. SG 6'5'' 217 21 C C C- C C A
Out of DASL completely, last pick of the lottery isn't where you expect too much, but not even getting a bench player out of it is tough.
Past the lottery... it is very rough.
There is one league-wide award winner....
15. Charlotte Hornets | Brandon Boston PF 6'8'' 230 22 C+ C+ D+ C+ C+ B
Brandon Boston, who has become a decent big off the bench, peaking with a 2026 Sixth man of the year.
And finally, the late bloomer:
25. Boston Celtics | Jadon Jones SF 6'5'' 218 21 B A- D+ D+ D+ C
A late breakout in his 5th year, finally translating his great percentages to a volume increase, mostly just a scorer. but a really good scorer.
TAKEAWAYS
The top 5 was actually quite good, no busts and several potential franchise guys.
The rest of the lottery was a mess
The next three guys (6-8) didn't make it past their first contract, the last pick in the lottery didn't either and 2 more are deep on a bench and may not be on a roster next season. Only 2 other players in the draft are starter quality.
Now this is only 1 draft, but it does seem to be a common trend. The very top of drafts is usually excellent, but everything after the top 3-5 is kind of a crapshoot, with no real difference is prejected outcomes between 7-10 and 17-20.