Article: Grading Teams’ Futures

[vincent1469]

Disclaimer: First article so may be missing some info or misinterpreting some teams. Although I was trying to be as objective as possible there is probably some inconsistency because I wrote this across work over the weekend. The average grade for each team is a B so I guess that means I was a little lenient? Please correct me wherever you see fit and give constructive feedback! The subjectiveness of this article will certainly lead to disagreements so please tell me where you disagree! There is a TL:DR at the bottom because this is a kinda long read lol.

Atlantic Division:

New York Knicks — B+: Danny Young exploded after falling all the way to the second round. He is going to be a pioneer in the new generation of players who are going to be more outside focused. Unfortunately, every player aside from him is in a contract year aside from ready now prospect Bill Wennington and former second round pick Thomas Mokray. There is bound to be some turnover as the Knicks figure out who to keep as part of their core moving forward. After receiving the Sonics’ first rounders for two consecutive years, the Knicks have one of the most interesting futures to keep an eye on as they build around Young and whatever players they desire to keep.

New Jersey Nets — A-: Vladimir Tkachenko signed an extremely team friendly deal and will continue to put up monster numbers. Dudley Bradley is a perennial All-Defensive player who will strike fear into opposing offenses. Although their lack of a draft pick this year is a little concerning, they have the cap room to acquire a star player to buddy up with their core and they have the Lakers’ pick next year.

Philadelphia 76ers — A-: Moses Malone, who is basically an MVP lock every season, and Mychal Thompson, a daily double-double machine, are signed for 6 and 4 years respectively. And Reggie Theus is a do-it-all guard who is signed for another year. There’s just one problem: their Big 3 takes up 91.56% of their soft cap room and the trio doesn’t have any other good young players besides Tony Brown to support them. I am confident in this team’s ability to go on playoff runs and to dominate the regular season, but will the rest of their team perform well enough to finally get that ring they’ve been hungry for?

Miami Heat — A: In the span of one offseason they became a contender. They drafted Terry Porter who is a bright young player with excellent playmaking and outside shooting who will get better. And reigning DPOY Joe Barry Carroll and Larry The Legend were acquired for 5 years and 3 years, respectively. They still have players like Mark Aguirre and Jeff Malone for another year to pair up with their big 3 for another playoff run after this year.

Orlando Magic — B-: Project guard Tom Sluby has the potential to be great, but he won’t be able to realize his true potential for a few years. Former first rounder Roy Hinson will be able to develop for another year behind veteran Dan Issel. If Gminski re-signs, they may be able to develop a backcourt for the future. However, this team still has some needs to fill and without a first rounder this year, they might be a few years from competing.

Boston Celtics — A: I love the young core they have. Byron Scott and Benoit Benjamin will be an elite guard-big duo, and I love some of their other young pieces. Sam Perkins and Orlando Woolridge are great defenders who can still develop their scoring. And second rounder Fernando Martin is a stretch big with a high ceiling. To top it off, they have two first rounders this year. We are just waiting for the young players to develop now.

Toronto Raptors — B: Kelvin Ransey is an elite PG in a league where not many exist. l Michael Britt and Joe Dumars are young wings who can become elite. But there are a few questions for this franchise. Mark Eaton is due to get paid. And they drafted a ready now prospect instead of a project player with a higher potential while they weren’t competing. There’s still some things to fix but I like their young core’s potential.

Central Division:

Cleveland Cavaliers — A-: With Olajuwon and Johnson locked up for 3 years and 6 years respectively, the Cavs have a dominant backcourt to build around. Olajuwon in particular has the potential to develop into an MVP-caliber player. However, Trent Tucker and George Johnson are due for paydays, and Derek Harper is expiring in one year, which would limit their ability to acquire more pieces to build around their elite backcourt. I can still see this team having several more playoff runs though and their championship window is still open for the near future.

Charlotte Hornets — B: The duo of Sikma and Greenwood are still signed for 5 and 4 years, respectively. That being said, they have consistently gotten playoff runs without much success. And they drafted another big rather than fill one out their needs on the perimeter. It’s going to be tough for the Hornets to maintain a contender without more perimeter help.

Detroit Pistons — A: Magic Johnson and Karl Malone will be an elite guard-big duo. All while having other supporting players like Clyde Drexler and the rest of their PG room. Also Anthony Teachey and Greg Wiltjer have a high ceiling and can develop alongside Malone.

Atlanta Hawks — B-: Almost all of the Hawks’ young players aside from Sam Bowie and Manute Bol had their potential dropped before they could develop into good players. At least they have two first rounders this year (and possibly more if they sell more assets). Still, the Hawks are in a somewhat tough situation for a rebuilding team.

Washington Bullets — C: There is no clear direction the Bullets are going. LaSalle Thompson, while a nice surprise in TC, is in a contract year and is likely going to demand a lot of money. Dale Ellis is a bust but number ten pick Spud Webb might make up for that in time. At least Fred Roberts is looking decent and still has 3 years in his rookie contract.

Indiana Pacers — D+: Phil Ford is a Top 3 PG. But that’s about all the positives left. Star SG Ricky Pierce is in a contract year and will want a massive contract to stay in Indy. The Pacers lack a draft pick this year which will certainly be in the lottery. The Pacers need to rebuild but can’t start until next year. At least Tyrone Corbin has a high ceiling so that’s something to look forward to.

Milwaukee Bucks — C+: They are in the beginning of a tough rebuild right now. It’s unclear who they are building around but they get extra points for having two first rounders. Expect them to tread the bottom of the standings for awhile.

Chicago Bulls — C: Isiah Thomas on a six year deal and Greg Ballard on a four year deal gives the Bulls something to be happy about. Unfortunately, they have no other pieces. The rest of the team is on a rental contract and although the Bulls have a start with these two, they are years from contending.

Midwest Division:

Dallas Mavericks — A-: Number one pick Patrick Ewing and ROTY Melvin Turpin are a bright young backcourt. Rookie Hot Rod Williams has a high ceiling and can become great. They also have two first rounders this year and next year to add to that young core. Their only problem is deciding whether or not to extend Mike Mitchell.

Utah Jazz — A-: Marques Johnson, Leon Wood, and Michael Cage are all locked up for three years. Robert Parish for four. To top it off, Roberto Brunamonti has a pretty affordable deal for six years. Although they havent had much playoff success, this core is strong enough on paper to make a deep playoff run. Terry Cummings’ expiring contract may pose a problem though.

Phoenix Suns — B-: Julius Erving is 35. At least the Suns realize this and have Sam Mitchell who is his supposed replacement but a loss of a player his caliber is still impactful. Dennis Johnson is also aging and the Suns will have to decide whether or not to keep a player with his cap hit and age next season. Aside from Mitchell, there are no other young players. It seems that their dynasty is slowly fading away before our eyes and the inevitable rebuild will have to begin soon.

Houston Rockets — A: This offseason the Rockets gave out max contracts to Adrian Dantley and Tom Chambers, providing a solid core. I also like their foundation of young bigs in Stipanovich, Koncak, and Green (despite his bad TC). And don’t forget about 23-year-old PG Ennis Whatley. They also have three first rounders this year so they have the opportunity to trade for a third star or draft for the future.

San Antonio Spurs — B-: George Gervin, Buck Williams, and James Worthy form a Big 3 that can score on anyone. However, this trio is a bit lacking defensively and the Spurs don’t have a draft pick this year to draft someone to help in that regard. In addition to that, Worthy is in a contract year and would command a max contract. The Spurs have set a decent foundation, but can they build on it and achieve some playoff success?

Minnesota Timberwolves — D: The trio of Mark McNamara, Junior Bridgeman, and Norm Nixon has been around for several years and achieved nothing. With McNamara in a contract year, it’s time for the Timberwolves to decide whether to continue with McNamara throughout the final three years of Bridgeman’s and Nixon’s contracts or to pack it up and start over. They don’t even have a first rounder to help build on this trio. Difficult situation for the Timberwolves.

Denver Nuggets — B: Charles Barkley and Xavier McDaniel are the future for this team. Overperforming PG Jon Sundvold is a nice commodity too. This team is still in the midst of a long rebuild but their foundation is great so far.

Pacific Division:

Los Angeles Lakers — A-: Darrell Griffith is going to be the franchise cornerstone for the next 4 years. Otis Thorpe is going to develop into a stud playing behind Larry Smith. This team is looking to become a dynasty. However, they may have to choose between Dominique Wilkins’ expiring contract and Bill Wingate’s.

Seattle SuperSonics — B-: Their Big 3 of Wayman Tisdale, Bill Laimbeer, and Alex English are all together for four years. But if they can’t achieve playoff success, they are looking at a tough road ahead. They lack their next two draft picks and lack good young players aside from Tisdale.

Vancouver Grizzlies — A+: The positives of this team are off the charts. John Stockton is a young PG who will develop further. Otis Birdsong is an elite two-way player. Kevin McHale is possibly the best PF in the game. And Alton Lister is a dependable double-double machine. To add to that, they are all locked up for 3 years (with McHale getting 5). If that’s not enough, they have two lottery picks this year to add to the Big 4’s supporting cast. The only thing that could take them down is luck (which hasn’t been on their side in recent years).

Golden State Warriors — B-: They have an extremely well built roster who should be contending every year. Problem is, they aren’t. I don’t know what it is but every year they fall short in the playoffs. They also have a large amount of cap tied into their core of Herb Williams, Cliff Robinson, Kenny Carr, and Robert Reid. I don’t know what needs to change but something needs to change if this lineup isn’t working.

Portland Trailblazers — B: Ralph Sampson and Michael Jordan are the future for this team. They also have lockdown defender Cedric Maxwell, all around guard Michael Ray Richardson, and a dominant inside presence in Bill Cartwright to form an excellent veteran supporting cast. However, they have 95% of their soft cap room tied to those three veterans and will likely have to let go Richardson in two years to pay Sampson. Plus, they don’t have a draft pick this year or next year to add any young players to develop alongside their core without trading away a key piece. This is a very talented roster though and I’m sure they will be able to shake off this slow start to make a playoff run.

Sacremento Kings — C-: After losing Joe Barry Carroll and Buck Williams to free agency, the Kings are forced to dismantle their core. Look for Oscar Schmidt and Jim Paxson to get shipped out sometime soon as the Kings look to rebuild. First rounder Michael Adams is the only decent young player on the Kings and is going to be a building block for their long rebuild.

Los Angeles Clippers — C+: This was a hard team to grade. They have an interesting young core of Charles Oakley and Darrell Walker. And some other supporting players like Earl Jones and Bill Garnett could pan out well. Alas, they are still a ways to go. They have a start with Oakley and Walker but will need to net a good return for James Edwards and Michael Brooks. And who knows, maybe the rest of Larry Smith’s return ends up appreciating in value over time.

TL:DR:

Atlanic Division:
Heat — A
76ers — A-
Nets — A-
Knicks — B+
Magic — B-
Raptors — B
Celtics — A

Central Division:
Cavaliers — A-
Hornets — B
Pistons — A
Hawks — B-
Bullets — C
Pacers — D+
Bucks — C+
Bulls — C

Midwest Division:
Mavericks — A-
Jazz — A-
Suns — B-
Rockets — A
Spurs — B-
Timberwolves — D
Nuggets — B

Pacific Division:
Lakers — A-
SuperSonics — B-
Warriors — B-
Trail Blazers — B
Grizzlies — A+
Clippers — C+
Kings — C-

[offtheheezy]

Loving this Grizzlies rating , but also the part about my luck hits hard . Thanks for the great article!

[the goat]

Good stuff. I was thinking about doing a post like this but my laziness got in the way.

I think if you're looking at the near future (2-3 years), the Lakers have to be an A+++ even with a bunch of impending FAs.

The Sixers and the Rockets seem a bit too high. Sixers are going to be a 1-man team until Moses retires, and the Rockets could've had a juggernaut but I'm not sure if they made the best trades in the last few seasons.

[Foxyg1396]

Must’ve taken a ton of time and research, well done and your analysis, in my opinion, is fairly accurate

[Craig]

Good stuff. I was thinking about doing a post like this but my laziness got in the way.

I think if you're looking at the near future (2-3 years), the Lakers have to be an A+++ even with a bunch of impending FAs.

The Sixers and the Rockets seem a bit too high. Sixers are going to be a 1-man team until Moses retires, and the Rockets could've had a juggernaut but I'm not sure if they made the best trades in the last few seasons.

Yeah it kinda depends on how "future" is defined. That makes it easier to grade each team

[dd10snoop28]

Cavs A+

[the goat]

Cavs A+

Cavs are already amazing, but the Blazers and Grizzlies are gonna be UNFAIRLY good in a year or 2

[dd10snoop28]

Cavs A+

Cavs are already amazing, but the Blazers and Grizzlies are gonna be UNFAIRLY good in a year or 2

They are good, but Cavs are better now and in the future. Cavs best players are all under 28. Grizz are all 27 and up.

[offtheheezy]

Cavs A+

Cavs are already amazing, but the Blazers and Grizzlies are gonna be UNFAIRLY good in a year or 2

They are good, but Cavs are better now and in the future. Cavs best players are all under 28. Grizz are all 27 and up.

Somebody throw Trent Tucker a supermax and save the rest of the league

[lukeyrid13]

The Cavs are built perfectly right now for sure.

Not sure that my team will be insanely good in a year or two. We don’t have depth and have a poor mixture of roster components.

Moves will be made to help alleviate that, but I limited my assets. I think the grade given here is fair.

[vincent1469]

Cavs A+

I think Cavs are built very well but they got a few key players expiring soon so I didnt want to jump the gun.

[Oregon Ownage]

I think you were too lenient with the rankings (for me C would be average instead of B) and it lacks a clear definition of how you rated the teams and what's the future? Three years? Five years?

Are you looking at what's on current rosters (and contracts) to determine the ranking? Are prospects valued more than established players?

Also dont afraid to be brutally honest in your evaluations

[vincent1469]

I think you were too lenient with the rankings (for me C would be average instead of B) and it lacks a clear definition of how you rated the teams and what's the future? Three years? Five years?

Are you looking at what's on current rosters (and contracts) to determine the ranking? Are prospects valued more than established players?

Also dont afraid to be brutally honest in your evaluations

Haha yeah first article so I didn’t want to come out the gate and start crapping on every non-contending team. I was trying to take into account the contracts and picks while valuing young players more but I guess looking back I gave some rebuilding teams too high of grades.

For the definition of future I would say about three years since that is the maximum amount of picks I could have seen (and most people don’t have additional picks past that anyway).

[Oregon Ownage]

Post your preferences, +5

[vincent1469]

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