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Ten reason why Stanford will beat the Ducks
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Calling my shot now, more than two days before kickoff and having watched Oregon demolish USC with one of the most impressive performances by a Pac-10 team in eons.
But this is a different setting and a different matchup (nobody in the league plays the way Stanford plays). And after talking to some savvy football folks — and taking a hard look at the styles and personnel — I believe it’ll have a different outcome:
Stanford becomes bowl-eligible with a close, entertaining, high-scoring victory that slows Oregon’s momentum and tightens the Pac-10 title race.
And here’s why:
10. The defensive discipline.
What Stanford lacks in speed, it will come close to making up for in discipline: Being in the right place at the right time to plug holes and contain Oregon’s spread option. (Without discipline, you have no chance to stop Jeremiah Masoli and Co. — as USC showed.)
9. Chris Owusu.
Stanford’s kick-returner extraordinaire has already taken three back for touchdowns and is due for No. 4. It’ll come at the perfect time for Stanford, just when Oregon’s about to snatch the momentum.
8. The history I:
Stanford has ruined Oregon’s dreams before. In 2001, the Cardinal rallied from two touchdowns down in the second half to stun the Ducks in Eugene — their only loss of the season. (Stanford was a 7-point underdog that day. This time, Oregon’s favored by 5.)
7. The history II:
The Cardinal believes it can win, having come within six seconds of doing just that in Eugene last season when Toby Gerhart was hobbling and Andrew Luck was redshirting.
6. The quarterback.
Masoli has had his share of clunkers in the past year-and-a-half. One of his worst performance came last year in Berkeley (7-of-21, 2 INTs). Apparently, playing in his former neighborhood — he’s from Daly City — didn’t bring out the best in him. It won’t this week, either.
5. The Ducks’ bill.
It’s due. Only two teams have gone undefeated in Pac-10 play this decade, and the Ducks (7-1, 5-0) don’t have nearly as much talent as the USC teams of 2004-05. They’re going to lose at some point. Saturday seems as good a time as any.
4. The playing surface.
The mower that cuts the Stanford Stadium field has one height setting, and it’s not “knee high.” Nor has Jim Harbaugh been spotted doing a rain-and-sun dance at midfield. Regardless, the natural grass will slow the Ducks the way natural grass slows all turf teams. Meanwhile, the surface will have no adverse effect on Stanford’s physicality.
3. The atmosphere.
Sure, Autzen Stadium’s a tough place to play with the non-stop, jet-engine noise. But just watch as the laid-back, Riesling-drinking, tailgating-among-the-eucalyptus-tree Stanford crowd lulls the Ducks to sleep.
2. The schedule.
The best time to play a team is after it plays USC, and the basking-in-the-glow Ducks are primed for a letdown. Meanwhile, Stanford’s coming off a bye that gave it plenty of time to rest and get ready for the spread option.
1. The ground game.
Stanford has the most physical running game in the conference with its big linemen/tight ends, a brute-force fullback (Owen Marecic) and a punishing tailback (Gerhart). That combination allows the Cardinal to run successfully between the tackles against the fast but undersized Duck defense, which in turn allows Stanford to dominate the ball and keep Oregon’s offense off the field. Add some well-executed play-action passes from Luck, and the Cardinal scores at will in the second half. Oregon’s rhythm-based offense sputters, Masoli gets frustrated, and Stanford powers its way to victory.
