The Draft Picks were as follows:
1 PISTONS Hardaway
2 Clippers Kemp
3 Magic Rice
4 Suns Elliott
5 Suns Divac
6 Trailblazers Ellison
7 Bucks Blaylock
8 Nuggets Anderson
9 Hornets Ferry
10 Grizzles King
11 Warriors/Jazz Robinson
12 Pacers Barros
13 Hornets McCloud
Now let's look at the Basic stat returns from these 13:
Now let's look at the Per 36 and advanced stats:
So what do we see:
1. Hardaway- Have to be disappointed with this output from the #1 pick. The percentages aren't terrible, showing a player who by TS% is somewhere middle of the pack in efficiency, but the production just isn't there. Lower usage, and 2nd lowest FL%, Hardaway just isn't contributing in the ways you'd hope for out of the gate from the #1 pick.Lowest per 36 point production of any lottery pick.
2. Kemp- The best rebounder in the class from the jump, he's been middle of the pack in most other areas. Still for a raw prospect you have to feel pretty good going forward, one elite skill and not bottom of the class in anything. You'd like to see growth in scoring efficiency, but Kemp is already a solid backup, to low end starting PF.
3. Rice- Surface numbers look really good, 3rd highest scorer in the class 2nd in steals. The advanced numbers aren't quite as good though one thing to keep in mind is that while efficiency is middle of the pack, he's doing so on the 3rd highest usage. Rice looks like an all around player in the making, with a floor of a good scoring guard.
4- Elliott- Guy gets buckets. Elliot has been on a limited minutes regime, but when he plays, he dominates the ball (4th highest usage) and scores, he also puts up nice steal rates. On the flip side... A LOT of turnovers, especially for a guy who doesn't get assists, a 1:3.54 AST/TO ratio is UGLY. Elliot also needs to show that he can sustain the scoring over more minutes, many players trip up when going to a full time role. EDIT- good news for Eilliott, those BLK/STL/TO numbers belong to Rob Williams and got pulled in a data error. At 0.25 the BLK number is nothing special, and the good STL rate is now a pedestrian 1.73, but all that is less important than the TO rate actually being 0.99, a much better number. Elliott needs to show he can keep this up over 2-3 times the minutes per game, but he's looking like a potential stud
5- Divac - An interesting player, he uses very few possessions, his rate stats seem generally fine, but other than his shotblocking nothing sensational... but FL% thinks he's bringing a lot of value, maybe it's the rim protection, maybe it's not using many posessions but also not screwing up, either way FL% has him the 3rd best rookie getting minutes.
6- Ellison - Another of the "bigs doing nothing great but nothing bad either", he's just solid, not a great shotblocker, not a great rebounder, but not bad at anything either. Could use to improve efficiency, 3rd worst TS% isn't really acceptable for a big.
7- Blaylock- The raw numbers king. Blaylock's coach is playing him over 40 minutes per game, and accordingly he's leading the lottery rookies in PTs, AST and TOs. And when he's on the floor he's got the ball, leading all lottery rookies in USG. In per 36 he slides down to 2nd in PTs and AST, 3rd in TOs. Efficiency is nothing special, but it seems pretty clear what you have in Mookie... he can score, he'll rack up assists to both teams. Needs to tighten up the TOs to be a real star.
8- Anderson- The usage isn't there yet, but Anderson is an efficient scorer, none of the other players getting over 15 MPG can match his TS%, and FL% has him as the best of those players as well. Doesn't appear to be doing much on D, but between the scoring, chipping in AST and low Turnovers, Anderson may be a role-player now, but he has future star written on him.
9- Ferry- Ferry is putting up similar per/36 numbers to Elliott... except he's doing it in 32MPG. He's not without weaknesses, the AST/TO ratio is subpar (though the TO rate isn't terrible like an Elliott, but the AST is low). He's probably the surprise of the lottery, supposed to be a raw prospect he's come out strong as an efficient scorer and rebounder.
10- King- He can rebound. 2nd best behind Kemp. Like Divac he doesn't use many possessions, unfortunately he doesn't have Divac's efficiency on offense (worst TS% in the lotto class, which is really disappointing for a big). Puts up solid defensive numbers, and keeps TOs down. Nothing too exciting, but he's a backup big with upside
11- Robinson- he's played like 20 minutes total, nothing to be drawn from that sample.
12- Barros- Best TS% in the class.... likely driven by shooting 78% from 3. Unfortunately, that and a solid AST per 36 appears to be about it. The TS% is nice, but the dearth of shots means he's not producing any points, the defensive numbers are subpar, and the turnover rate is HIDEOUS (6.41 per 36) put it all together and you get the worst FL% of the lotto rookies. In fairness, that's not too unexpected from the 2nd to last pick in the lotto. Overall though Barros looks like he either needs a big bump in HND or he's going to be a SG.
13- McCloud- He plays a lot of minutes and he takes good care of the ball.... and.... yeah. Doesn't use many possessions, but not particularly efficient when he does, 2nd worst TS%, 3rd worst FL%, some of it may be shot selection, A strong FT% gives some hope that he could be a good 3pt shooter in time, but so far he's been an abysmal 24% from 3. Not the worst at 13, but close, only consolation could be that he was a very raw prospect.
EARLY ROY contenders from the LOTTO:
1. Danny Ferry- likely the leader right now, one of the best scorers and rebounders, and playing starter minutes.
2. Mookie Blaylock- POINTS, also assists, his TOs are ugly but he has the offensive contributions to make this a race
3. Glen Rice- another scorer.
Dark Horse- Sean Elliott, if he gets starter minutes the rest of the way, he could be the top scorer and force his way into the picture
Early Disappointments:
1. Tim Hardaway- the only real disappointment so far, needs to pick it up.
we had such high hopes
