Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

[Phalanx]

Dame being on the team had literally zero to do with us being in the lottery during the past two years. The first year, they shut him down for surgery so we could tank. Then last year, then shut him down for the stretch run so we could tank again. (But we were probably lottery-bound last year anyway considering our roster was objectively worse than it had been in previous years.)

That's not actually what I said, I said Portland got nothing out of him the last two years, which is true, and so it would have been better to trade him two years ago, which I suggested in a thread back then, you may recall. I do think it's funny though how Lillard apologists can do these kinds of mental acrobatics such that Portland can pay him 30% of the team salary, but he has nothing to do with the losing. Anyway, I am happy to see the back of him, and it will probably just be a crazy coincidence that the Blazers wit ha more balanced roster will soon start winning more than they have the last two years

[pezsez1]

It is too bad that the front office squandered such a great player, but thankfully he's in a far better situation. I guess we'll really find out now whether Dame is indeed a championship-caliber player. Good chance for him to silence his haters.

Also, you'd better check the Vegas over/under on wins. This team isn't going to be very good for a while. We're gonna lose a whole lotta games. But the hope is that Scoot eventually becomes a Dame-level player and that at least a couple of others come along for the ride.

[StevensTechU]

Guard rotation of Scoot, Brogdon, Sharpe, and Anfernee is very solid. Forward rotation is garbage. Centers are upper tier. I don't expect them to win a lot, but I was fearing a Houston-like dumpster fire season, and I don't think that will be the case.

[Phalanx]

It is too bad that the front office squandered such a great player, but thankfully he's in a far better situation. I guess we'll really find out now whether Dame is indeed a championship-caliber player. Good chance for him to silence his haters.

Also, you'd better check the Vegas over/under on wins. This team isn't going to be very good for a while. We're gonna lose a whole lotta games. But the hope is that Scoot eventually becomes a Dame-level player and that at least a couple of others come along for the ride.

Who needs to go as far as Vegas, Pez? I will bet you right now that the Blazers win total in the next two seasons eclipses that of the last two. That means they have to win at least 61 games. What do you want to bet? My suggestion is that you would have to change your sig line to read something like 'Phalanx was right again, Lillard was ridiculously overpaid' or something like that.

I'm also tempted to extend that bet to whether or not Lillard will win a championship, but since Giannis already won one without Lillard, I'm not sure it would prove anything. I mean, Will Perdue was 4 rings, it doesn't make him a 'championship-caliber player. I just really look forward to a possible series with Jrue vs Lillard.

[pezsez1]

Guard rotation of Scoot, Brogdon, Sharpe, and Anfernee is very solid. Forward rotation is garbage. Centers are upper tier. I don't expect them to win a lot, but I was fearing a Houston-like dumpster fire season, and I don't think that will be the case.

That's my concern, too. It's not just that we're guard heavy, but we have too many guards who will eventually need to be paid. Trading Lillard definitely benefited the rebuild, but the roster is still unbalanced. Hopefully it's as much fun watching these guys lose as I think it will be, because we need at least another year with a high lottery pick.

[squintsdd]

A few years ago, the Blazers should have traded Lillard, not Ant, and he would have fetched more because his value would not have been weighed down by that ridiculous extension (coupled with a public trade request). And what did we get out of Lillard the past two years? Two years in the lottery.

I think Ant has been waiting for an opportunity to play on a team that isn't dominated by one guy the way the Blazers have been the last decade. We saw glimpses of what he can do when Lillard was injured, and hopefully he can add consistency and defense and he will be a bonafide starter on a playoff team. I hope Sharpe lives up to his draft status and hype, although so far he hasn't shown much.

As happy as i am that Lillard is gone, I can't say I agree with this. Trading Ant 2 years ago would've been the peek of his value and could've potentially brought back a return that Lillard was looking for to make this team an actual competitor. Lillard 2 years ago was injured, and many people thought we were seeing the downhill slide. His trade value 2 years ago was arguably the lowest in his career, and would've brought back far less than it had now.

Arguing that his contract prevented this team from competing is neglecting to look at what Milwaukie is doing. They have 2 players now on super max contracts, and are the favorites to win the title. The real problem was olshey signing mediocre players to over priced contracts that made it nearly impossible to trade them away. The players with any value not named Lillard, that he could've traded, he absolutely refused to.

[pezsez1]

Who needs to go as far as Vegas, Pez? I will bet you right now that the Blazers win total in the next two seasons eclipses that of the last two. That means they have to win at least 61 games. What do you want to bet? My suggestion is that you would have to change your sig line to read something like 'Phalanx was right again, Lillard was ridiculously overpaid' or something like that.

I'm also tempted to extend that bet to whether or not Lillard will win a championship, but since Giannis already won one without Lillard, I'm not sure it would prove anything. I mean, Will Perdue was 4 rings, it doesn't make him a 'championship-caliber player. I just really look forward to a possible series with Jrue vs Lillard.

I'm not against sig bets, but I personally don't see any value in eclipsing two years in which the organization was deliberately tanking and most of the starters were benched with "injuries." It proves absolutely nothing if these young guys play their hearts out and barely do better. Blazers were in the playoffs the last time we weren't deliberately trying to lose, and it's going to be awhile before this new group figures out how to reach that level.

Giannis did win a ring but it was a weird, injury-filled playoffs in which the Bucks avoided full-strength competition, especially in the finals with Booker and CP3 both hamstrung by injuries. They haven't looked like a title favorite beyond that run. I expect Dame is going to take their offense to a new level and make Giannis even better. Dame's abilities as a distributor were vastly underrated here in Portland because he was usually our only dependable scoring option. That won't be the issue in Milwaukee. If he and Giannis light it up & dispose of the improved Celtics en route to beating whoever comes out of the loaded Western Conference then that will absolutely establish Dame's place among the NBA's most elite. If Dame fails to play up to that standard then the Bucks are already dead in the water.

[Phalanx]

I'm not against sig bets, but I personally don't see any value in eclipsing two years in which the organization was deliberately tanking and most of the starters were benched with "injuries." It proves absolutely nothing if these young guys play their hearts out and barely do better. Blazers were in the playoffs the last time we weren't deliberately trying to lose, and it's going to be awhile before this new group figures out how to reach that level.

Ah, so they were just deliberately tanking all year for draft picks while paying Lillard all that money?

Nope, they were tanking after trying to make the playoffs and realizing near the end of the season that they had failed. Two seasons with Lillard as the supermaxed leader ended in the lottery. If he was the coach, he would be fired. Instead, he is under contract, so he was first replaced, then traded after everyone saw the writing on the wall. No more tanking, no more one-man show. A new era has dawned, and you may not have actually analyzed this line-up, but they are potentially a playoff team. The Blazers have acquired some players. Brogdon is a legit starting PG in his own right. Simons is just entering his prime with no Lillard to hold him back. Grant scored 20ppg last season. Ayton is a legit 20/10 guy. Williams is an outstanding defender when healthy, and tons of playoff experience. These are not rookies, and they are not scrubs. Add in Thybulle for defense, Scoot, Sharpe, Murray and whoever ever else can develop fast enough to contribute, and it's a team bubbling with potential. They just have to learn to play together, which could take awhile. I don't think it will take two full seasons, so I am willing to make that bet.

[Phalanx]

Guard rotation of Scoot, Brogdon, Sharpe, and Anfernee is very solid. Forward rotation is garbage. Centers are upper tier. I don't expect them to win a lot, but I was fearing a Houston-like dumpster fire season, and I don't think that will be the case.

Grant certainly isn't garbage; the dude scored 20ppg last season. I don't know who starts at the three, but the Blazers haven't had a true small forward for years now. It will probably be Thybulle/Sharpe/ Knox

[pezsez1]

Nope, they were tanking after trying to make the playoffs and realizing near the end of the season that they had failed. Two seasons with Lillard as the supermaxed leader ended in the lottery.

That's a half-truth.

The first season, the Blazers shut down Lillard and tanked because Cronin wanted to blow up the roster (and rightfully so). A playoff berth was absolutely still on the table, but everyone knew that roster was broken and needed a reset.

The second season, after numerous key players were injured throughout the season -- and after making the roster worse at midseason by trading away Hart (which was the right move at the time) -- Cronin shut Dame down because they were likely going to miss the play-in (but they weren't completely out of it).

The one completely true thing you've said is that the organization didn't get its money's worth from Lillard during those final two years. Can't argue with that at all.

Also not going to disagree with your praise of our new roster. It's legit. To say we'll be in the playoff hunt in three years isn't kicking dirt on them in the slightest. We're in a loaded conference and this group needs to grow up. But man, when they do, they could really be special. Definitely more upside than Lillard trying to will his team to the playoffs without any help from the frontcourt.

[Phalanx]

Nope, they were tanking after trying to make the playoffs and realizing near the end of the season that they had failed. Two seasons with Lillard as the supermaxed leader ended in the lottery.

That's a half-truth.

The first season, the Blazers shut down Lillard and tanked because Cronin wanted to blow up the roster (and rightfully so). A playoff berth was absolutely still on the table, but everyone knew that roster was broken and needed a reset.

The second season, after numerous key players were injured throughout the season -- and after making the roster worse at midseason by trading away Hart (which was the right move at the time) -- Cronin shut Dame down because they were likely going to miss the play-in (but they weren't completely out of it).

The one completely true thing you've said is that the organization didn't get its money's worth from Lillard during those final two years. Can't argue with that at all.

Also not going to disagree with your praise of our new roster. It's legit. To say we'll be in the playoff hunt in three years isn't kicking dirt on them in the slightest. We're in a loaded conference and this group needs to grow up. But man, when they do, they could really be special. Definitely more upside than Lillard trying to will his team to the playoffs without any help from the frontcourt.

The first season they were better without Lillard than they were with him. The Blazers were 13-22 after his last game. They proceeded to go 12-12 without him until they started shutting down the other starters with 23 games to go. By the time they announced Lillard wasn't coming back on March 21st, they were 26-44 and well out of the playoff race. Toward the end of the season, Lillard himself implied he could come back, but there was no point, since they were so far out of it.

Last year, he only sat the last 10 games. As we have already detailed here, they would have had to win 8 of those last 10 just to make the play-in. That wasn't going to happen. Cronin made the right call, and it lead to all the dominoes falling from then to now.

In each case, holding on to Lillard directly lead to a lottery season. He has been a waste of payroll for two years, at least in terms of winning, and I think the Blzers would have gotten more for him if they had traded him when I wanted them to. Portland would likely already be a playoff team by now. People still wanted to watch Lillard lose though, so they kept him.

If you think it will take three years to improve over recent performance, make the bet. I think it will be sooner. I expect to at least make the play-in next season, and it may even happen this season. Now that Lillard is gone and that payroll is being put to better use, there is nowhere to go but up.

[Duck07]

Guard rotation of Scoot, Brogdon, Sharpe, and Anfernee is very solid. Forward rotation is garbage. Centers are upper tier. I don't expect them to win a lot, but I was fearing a Houston-like dumpster fire season, and I don't think that will be the case.

Grant certainly isn't garbage; the dude scored 20ppg last season. I don't know who starts at the three, but the Blazers haven't had a true small forward for years now. It will probably be Thybulle/Sharpe/ Knox

If Grant could rebound he'd be an All-Star level PF, otherwise he's still one of the best shooting bigs and also has one of the quickest releases in the league. I really don't see the team trading him (or Thybulle) this season, next year sure, but right now it sure sounds like this team is going to try and compete with the team it has.

Thybulle is an ideal 5th option to me because he can hit the 3 and take on the toughest defensive assignment. I don't want Sharpe starting over Matisse because he'd take shots away from other starters whereas on the 2nd unit, Brogdan can set him up to flourish in more favorable situations. I also think when it is time for Sharpe to start, he'll likely replace Ant and the team would then play a heavy 3-man Guard lineup where each pairing can seemingly play off/with one another for their 32/night.

It also sounds Sharpe really has taken on more defensive strides as Chauncey noted how well he was calling out things from the back. Scoot-Sharpe-Thybulle-Grant-Ayton could be our best defensive lineup so long as they can grab defensive boards as a team. This is also the benefit of some lineups where you could take Grant out for RW and know you could control the glass.

I think as far as a steady rotation goes, the only area that's not checked off is whether Toumani Camara takes some of the backup PF minutes away from Jabari Walker that aren't taken by RW. As I've watched some of his film, he's got a tenacity to him on Defense and someone who could be an ideal Thybulle replacement in the future when it is more prudent to move him. Murray is someone who may never be a Star, but could sure become one of those useful role-players on a good team.

Frankly if our Forward rotation was any better, Cronin would already have the Executive of the Year award locked up. As it is, we've got starters who will help the progress of the young guys in Scoot, Sharpe, Ayton and Simons while also having a nice balance of Murray, Camara and Walker fighting for backup minutes along with a steadying presence of Brogdan and Williams.

Now it's up to Chauncey to see what he can do with a roster of guys that can play defense save the 1 flamethrower.

[pezsez1]

The first season they were better without Lillard than they were with him. The Blazers were 13-22 after his last game.

I know you don't like Lillard, but this is a terrible argument. Lillard was injured that season to the point he needed surgery... he was shooting career lows from the field and missed 11 games prior to shutting down for his procedure. I remember that season, watching Lillard miss so many shots that he usually hits with no problems. Lillard got healthy and just had his best offensive season ever.

A better metric to guage whether the team played better with or without Lillard would be to look at last season's records when he was or wasn't on the floor.

With Lillard: 27-31

Without Lillard: 6-18

After the All-Star break, the team was 4-8 with Lillard and 1-11 without him. (The Blazers were 0-2 after the All-Star Break in games when Lillard didn't play BEFORE he was shut down for tanking.)

Look, I think Anfernee Simons is great & fun to watch, but it's time to stop pretending that Portland was better when Dame wasn't playing. That's simply not true. Hopefully Anfernee takes advantage of this moment to find another level in his game.

[Phalanx]

I know you don't like Lillard, but this is a terrible argument.

This would be a heady criticism indeed, if you ever actually followed an argument.

The argument is not 'the Blazers should pay Lillard 30% of the active team salary and then just sit him because the team is better without him'. The question, as it has been for a number of years now, is whether it was worthwhile to keep paying Lillard that ridiculous salary, and how doing so affected actual performance by the team. Injuries count, dude. When you are invested in one player the way the Blazers were, then that player getting injured goes in the minus (-) column, just like it would with Zion Williamson or any player weighing down the team. The fact is, paying Lillard instead of trading him directly led to two seasons in the lottery. Now that the money is spread out over several players and the team is keeping and acquiring more rookie deals, they will be able to absorb an injury better.

I have never said Lillard isn't a good player. I have always said he wasn't worth the money they were paying him. I have also questioned his actual loyalty to the team and interest in winning vs getting paid. I think my arguments for the last several years have been validated pretty conclusively over the last few months. I predicted that he would seek a trade as soon as he signed that supermax extension, and that is exactly what he did. By manipulation via his agent and the obliging media, he was able to use the Blazers to get a contract that he never would have gotten anywhere else. A wise GM will take that experience into account the next time he is thinking about elevating a player to supermaxdom. There are a handful of players where giving them a contract like that might make sense. Lillard was never one of those players. He was a bad investment, at least in terms of team performance, and he brought down the team pretty close to laughingstock status for several years. We are well rid of him, quite frankly, and Cronin has done an amazing job building a new team on the fly. I am interested again.

P.S. Did anyone read his statement about joining the Bucks? He actually admitted Giannis is a better player than him and that he will be happy to take a back seat as he joins that team. The funny part is that Lillard is slated to make more in the coming years than Giannis, despite being 5 years older. Now that they are on the same payroll, it should be easy to see how stupid it was to keep paying Lillard all that money.

[pezsez1]

I have always said he wasn't worth the money they were paying him.

You seemed to be implying that the Blazers were better when he wasn't on the floor, which isn't true. My bad if that's not what you were implying. Clearly, the Blazers were always better with Dame.

I actually appreciate your argument regarding his dollar-for-dollar value compared with other players. I think where we differ is that you think Lillard is overrated, whereas I think he never really had the tools to compete here. We'll have to agree to disagree on that. (I hate "agree to disagree," but we'll never change each other's minds on this topic.)

I did see what Dame said about Giannis being better than he is! I think that shows Dame's maturity as a player and a teammate. Dame has far more admirers than critics, but I think the Skip Baylesses of the world are about to learn that Dame isn't the Kyrie Irving-style black hole that they think he is.