DASL is obviously far different than the NBA, different players develop, career ending/changing injuries may not happen, but one truly amazing thing is that at some level DASL is not playing the same game as their NBA counterparts.
By 2014-15 the NBA was firmly into the “Pace and Space” or analytics era of offense, with many teams emphasizing the advantages of high pace, and the increased efficiency provided by the 3 point shot replacing long 2 point jump-shots.
DASL, however does not appear to have followed this real-world trend yet, so I set out to determine how the two leagues vary in the same year regarding “Pace and Space” principles, and when (or if) it was likely that DASL would catch up to the NBA.
The most glaring difference I found was in 3 point shooting.
In 2014-15, DASL’s leading 3pt shooting team is the Miami Heat, who shoot 18.9 3PA per game. In the 2014-15 NBA season, 18.9 3PA would have tied them with the Los Angeles Lakers for 25th in the NBA. The average NBA team in 2014-15 shot 22.4 3PA per game, while the average DASL team in 2014-15 is shooting 12.2 3PA per game.
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Now the first thing one might wonder… is this just a case of a lower PACE to the game? Are DASL teams taking less 3PTA than their real world counterparts because they are taking less shots?
A quick looks shows that this does not appear to be the case. While there are DASL teams that slow the pace and take few shots, it is not significantly lower than their slowest real-world counterparts. 2014-15’s least prolific shooting team is the Houston Rockets, who shoot 75.5 FGA per game, this is slightly less than the 2014-15 NBA Miami Heat who shot 77.2 FGA per game. Overall, NBA teams in 2014-15 averaged 83.6 FGA per game, DASL teams so far in 2014-15 have averaged 83.3 FGA per game.
So it seems clear the PACE aspect of the “Pace and Space” era has come to DASL, so the question is… why hasn’t space?
DASL teams on average are taking 3s on 14.6% of all their attempts, a 3PAr of .146, in 2014-15 the NBA average 3PAr was .268, a rate over 80% higher.
Now perhaps this was just a coaching choice:
Are coaches focusing on interior attack, or putting a strong emphasis on balance?
To test this theory, I looked at certain teams that took a lot of 3s, and had consistent coaching.
First, our league leader in attempts, the Miami Heat. The Heat have consistently stressed an Outside game, and it shows in their 3 attempts, however, they play with a Normal pace (though they have managed to average the 5th most FGA in the league), yet despite this outside focus, their 3PAr is .220, which is very high for DASL, but well below average for 2014-15 NBA teams.
Second I looked at a FAST team that had focused on an outside game. The San Antonio Spurs of DASL, their speed has paid off in the most FGA in the league, at 91.3 FGA per game, and the second most 3PA with 18.3 3PA per game. Again though we see that despite an outside focus, and in this case a faster pace, a league leader in DASL has a 3PAr of only .200, a number that would have exceeded one two NBA teams in 2014-15.
So why are teams, even outside focused teams not taking more 3 point attempts?
Is it a case of teams moving toward 2 point shots because the 3 isn’t falling? Here we can un-equivocally say…. No. The Heat lead the league in attempts, but also find themselves 4th in percentage, making 41.5% of their 3PA. They are one of TEN teams who hit 3s at a higher rate than 2014-15 NBA league leaders Golden State, indeed more than half the league in DASL shoots the 3 better than the 2nd best shooting team of 2014-15 in the NBA (the Atlanta Hawks).
Based on this analysis I have to conclude that DASL will never see the true “Pace and Space” offense that dominates the current NBA, while DASL teams tend to be better outside shooters than their NBA counterparts, they simply will not shoot the percentage of attempts from three to the levels the predominate in the “Pace and Space” era. It is likely that this is simply a limitation of the FBB engine, and no matter how a team is structured in terms of talent and coaching strategy, cannot be overcome.
