Western Conference Over/Unders

[Oregon Ownage]

With a new season upon us, I wanted to do a review of the Western Conference in the form of Over/Under using last years win total. I am interested in hearing your thoughts on the teams in the West and who will be making the step up and who will be looking to tank.

Seattle SuperSonics (18)
Key Additions: Marvin Bagley, Malik Newman
Key Losses: Larry Nance Jr.

The SuperSonics tanked last year and ended with the #1 overall pick and selected Bagley. He will replace Nance Jr. who performed better than expected last year coming over from the Celtics. This team is still lacking pieces at center and small forward to anything. The jury is still out with Tyler Dorsey playing the 2. He lost playing time last year on a tanking team so thats not a good sign. Reggie Jackson willed the team last playing out of his mind and averaged a career high 28.9 PPG. He is in his last year of the max deal he signed back in 2015 so I expect another big time year for him. They have the previous GM's dealings hanging over their head. This years 1st rounder is only protected for the top 5. With all that said, last years team had more quality DASL players in it and still only won 18 games and with no incentive to win, I expect them to be under 18 wins and another long year in the Pacific Northwest.

Portland Trailblazers (26)
Key Additions: Trey Lyles, Zion Williamson
Key Losses: No one of significance

The Trailblazers had a down year last year after many years competing at the top of the West. They were able to upgrade in the post with Trey Lyles replacing Tyler Hansbrough for the second unit. The strength of the team are the guards: Louis Williams & Brandon Jennings. If they can continue to produce and lead the team, they are fine for a couple more years. The big addition of the off-season was #4 pick Zion Williamson. Still a teenager, aged 19, he brings energy and ability that was really lacking last year. Not being pressed to contribute immediately can help with his growth while settling into the team to find his role. I think last years team is going to be an outlier. They are much better than their record indicated and I expect a bounce back of sorts, not to the great heights of previous years teams, but better than last years win total. I am taking the over of 26 wins.

San Antonio Spurs (31)
Key Additions: Gorgui Dieng, Malik Williams, Kevin Seraphin, Evan Fournier
Key Losses: Thon Maker

The Spurs had themselves quite an offseason. They started it off with the blockbuster move of trading Thon Maker to the Grizzlies for Gorgui Dieng & Evan Fournier. Dieng should slide in and take over the defensive responsibility left by Maker and Fournier is a clear upgrade at SG. They now possess a true go to scorer on the perimeter. They also selected Malik Williams with 6th overall pick to play down-low and help to offset the contributions left by Maker. Second year player and former 1st overall pick, Michael Porter, looked determined this offseason to lead and carry this young team moving forward. I expect a jump in production from him this year. The man tasked with running the show, De'Aaron Fox, is another player who in offseason showed he is willing to be a franchise player. The Spurs are building a great team with potentially three franchise players and the front office is looking to carry the momentum into this season with a push for the playoffs. I expect a mark improvement from their 31 wins a season ago. I am going way over.

Minnesota Timberwolves (36)
Key Additions: Ikechukwu Obiagu
Key Losses: Kosta Koufos, Trey Lyles, Ben Simmons, Ricky Rubio

Where do we begin? They lost arguably the top FA and possible top 10 player in the league, Ben Simmons, this offseason. To compound it, it seemed like they were willing to let him walk and never tried to keep him. Shocking and boarder line fireable offense by the front office. They also let Ricky Rubio & Kosta Koufos walk. Whats left is Jahlil Okafor & Ben McLemore who are both quality players but are surrounded by literally no one. With the 10th pick they selected Ikechukwu Obiagu who looks like a good prospect but with how this franchise has been run, one has to question where his head will be at this season. They could easily trade Okafor & McLemore to really gut this team and frankly, if they really want to tank, they should. With how the team was constructed last year, they won 36 games so I expect a fight with the SuperSonics for the badge of worst team in the Western Conference this year. Give me the under, way under.

Los Angeles Lakers (38)
Key Additions: Jabari Parker, Omari Spellman
Key Losses: Gary Neal

Near the trade deadline last year, the Lakers flipped Damian Lillard to the Bucks. The idea was to tank and get a better draft pick in the upcoming draft. Turns out the players didnt want to play a part in that strategy. The reeled off wins towards the end of the season and ended up with the 12th pick and they selected Omari Spellman. He looks like a very good prospect who can protect the paint and grab boards. Another piece to that Lillard trade was acquiring Malik Monk who looks set to take over for DeMar DeRozan now, rather than later. They also acquired Zach Collins in the trade for Lillard. He looks like he can anchor that defensive core for the next decade. They also picked up Jabari Parker in the off season via FA and while still young at 25 looks set to take a jump this year. The Lakers have a solid team and added it to this offseason. I expect a small jump in the win total but not by much. They still lack that superstar but think either Monk, Collins or Parker can become that for them. Slight over.

Los Angeles Clippers (43)
Key Additions: Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Ben Simmons, Darren Collison
Key Losses: Brandan Wright

In terms of star power acquisitions, the Clippers might have won the award for the off season. The big get was Ben Simmons, who as mentioned under the preview for the Timberwolves, could be a top 10 DASL player. They backed that up by getting Al Jefferson in FA and then trading for Dwight Howard. A line up of Howard-Jefferson-Simmons-Green-Westbrook is pretty tasty looking. They also have Paul Millsap, Luol Deng & Darren Collison to come off the bench. Thats a very good 8 player rotation. The Clippers organization is always looking to win and this team might present their best chance to get that title. The Pacific division looks strong but I do expect the Clips to surpass their win total from last year.

Denver Nuggets (43)
Key Additions: Joakim Noah, Sacha Killeya-Jones
Key Losses: Spencer Hawes, Jamal Murray

The Nuggets have two special talents in Joel Embiid & D'Angelo Russell. The problem has been surrounding them with talent to compete in a stacked Western Conference. Their 1st round picks outside of those two has not been good and it has shown with their close to .500% winning average. Their 1st round pick this year, Sacha Killeya-Jones, looks to have the ability but is raw and will need time to develop. The biggest coup for the off season was Joakim Noah who will replace the outgoing Spencer Hawes who they brought in last season. They will need improvement from the SG's to have a formidable team and Terrance Ferguson looks to have taken that step. I expect the Nuggets to be around the 43 win mark for the year so I will go with the slight over as the Midwest Division looks to be weaken this upcoming year.

Houston Rockets (44)
Key Additions: Brandan Wright, Sekou Doumbouya, Dzanan Musa
Key Losses: Jon Leuer, Al Jefferson, Aaron Gordon, Gordon Hayward, Arron Afflalo, Darren Collison

The Rockets started the off season by keeping Karl-Anthony Towns and giving him a max contract. Then they traded Aaron Gordon for the 7th pick, Dzanan Musa, who has been given the keys as the second scorer and we will see how well he performs. They then lost Jon Leuer, Al Jefferson, Gordon Hayward, Arron Afflalo & Darren Collison in FA. The team has been striped down to the bare bones and looks set on a rebuild. Selecting Sekou Doumbouya with the 18th pick looks like a risky pick but if the plan is to rebuild, then the pick makes sense. While they will not be as bad as the SuperSonics and Timberwolves, they will be towards the bottom of the West this season. I am going with the under for their wins this year.

Utah Jazz (44)
Key Additions: Gordon Hayward, Jordan Tucker
Key Losses: Dwight Howard, Paul George, Victor Oladipo, Shake Milton

Here is another team that looks set on taking a step back for the season. In FA, they lost Dwight Howard, Paul George, Victor Oladipo & Shake Milton. Letting George walk was a surprise. Maybe they were targeting another SF and just missed. They replaced him with Gordon Hayward who at this point in his career is not on the same level as George or even the level below. Dwight Howard also left and that leaves DeMarcus Cousins as the lone tower downlow. Did they not get along? Was Howard tired of playing 2nd fiddle to Cousins? With their only pick in the draft, they selected Jordan Tucker who looks like a steal. Cousins and Dante Exum are good enough for the Jazz to not be terrible, but like the Rockets they will sit in that middle ground. I am going with the under for this coming year.

Phoenix Suns (50)
Key Additions: Luka Samanic, Bruno Caboclo
Key Losses: Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry was a surprise retirement this off season and they were not able to replace his production. I would wager a guess that the Suns think Rawle Alkins can replace what Lowry could do. In the draft, they selected Luka Samanic with the 23rd pick who is yet another big man to add to the rotation. I dont see many minutes for him this year though. James Harden will be the top option and he has shown he can carry a team but defensively as a team, they will need to improve to be able to take the next step. I expect this years team to be similar to last years team and compete for a top 4/5 seed. I will go with a slight under for their win total this year.

Golden State Warriors (53)
Key Additions: Wenyen Gabriel, Isaiah Thomas
Key Losses: No one of significance

The Warriors were able to keep their team intact but add two pieces to it. The biggest get was Isaiah Thomas who could be taking over the starting PG job from Jrue Holiday who didnt really shine last year running the team. In the draft, they selected Wenyen Gabriel with the 26th pick to provide depth down low. Brandon Ingram & Kevin Durant will run the show and provide the majority of scoring. They are hoping for Thomas to chip in with 12-15 PPG and Nikola Vucevic to provide something in the paint. Durant & Ingram have shown they can carry a team to a Conference semi-final and I expect no less this year with the addition of Thomas. I will go with the slight over this year.

Dallas Mavericks (55)
Key Additions: Kosta Koufos, Cat Barber, Chris Paul
Key Losses: Drew Gordon, Kevin Seraphin, Robert Covington, Kevin Martin, Tyler Ulis

Kevin Martin retired in the off season and Tyler Ullis jumped to the Nets. That leaves two big holes to fill for the Mavs who are build to compete. They were able to trade for Chris Paul who is in the final year of his max contract to replace Ullis and resigned Klay Thompson to take over from the departed Martin. As a MLE pickup, they got Kosta Koufos who looks set to start at PF and push Andrew Bynum to a backup/6th man role. I expect some time for the team to gel together but the pieces are there for a run and I expect them to compete for a top 3/4 seed this year. I will go with a slight over of 55 wins for the Mavericks this year.

Sacramento Kings (59)
Key Additions: Adreian Payne, Arron Afflalo, Iman Shumpert
Key Losses: No one of significance

The starting five of the Kings is well entrenched so getting quality depth pieces was the goal for FA and they accomplished that in getting Adreian Payne, Arron Afflalo, Iman Shumpert. One of the best defensive teams in the DASL the past couple of years, I expect that to continue and the new depth pieces to provide more off the bench than last year. The past two seasons, Andrew Wiggins has set the single season scoring record and I expect him to push for another scoring title this season as well. If they could upgrade in the starting lineup, they should look at PG, which is currently held by Mike Conley. A trade that could make sense is acquiring Reggie Jackson from the SuperSonics who might be looking to really tank this year. Barring no injuries, I am going with a slight under for the Kings this year but I still expect them to compete for a top 3 seed.

Vancouver Grizzlies (70)
Key Additions: Thon Maker, Immanuel Quickley
Key Losses: Gorgui Dieng, Evan Fournier, Cat Barber

As mentioned under the Spurs preview, the off season started with a bang as the Grizzlies traded for Thon Maker. Instead of going to a small ball lineup, it looks like the Grizzlies are going in the opposite direction. A lineup of Maker-Noel-Davis-Anthony-Joseph is one of the best starting units and the best rebounding unit DASL has ever seen. Still leading the team at the young age of 36, Carmelo Anthony, is making the case as the greatest ever DASL player. This could could push for the best single season record, barring injuries of course. I will go with the slight over and a push for the record.

Teams making the playoffs:
Grizzlies
Kings
Mavericks
Warriors
Suns
Clippers
Spurs
Nuggets

[Marzeial]

That was a fun read. Interesting nuggets of information in there like the Twolves not even trying to keep Simmons.

Great breakdown OO

[Zyme]

The Grizz just have an embarrassment of riches. I don't see a whole lot standing in their way.

[FlDuckFan]

I think sonics get over and we end up loosing our pick.

[UOducksTK1]

70 wins over/under lol, so ridiculous.

[pistolpetejr]

The Grizz just have an embarrassment of riches. I don't see a whole lot standing in their way.

Honestly I was looking at my team from when I acquired it till now to see if I simply lucked out or actually did what I had to do, and for the sake of illustrating the journey:

Notable players when I inherited the team, lotto back then: Draymond Green, Blake Griffin, Cory Joe, Jakob Poeltl, Kawhi and Fournier.

- Dealt Blake to Miami for a deal surrounding Reggie Jackson.
- Traded Draymond for Noel.
- Traded various pieces for Greg Oden.
- Dealt Poeltl+ for Gorgui Dieng.
- Reggie Jackson and Greg Oden+ head over to Seattle for Carmelo Anthony, Cheick Diallo, and Robin Lopez.
- Kawhi and Diallo to Charlotte for Anthony Davis and Jeremy Lamb.
- Evan Fournier and Gorgui Dieng for Thon Maker.

Big shoutout to a few select GMs who declined a trade proposition or two that involved Evan Fournier a few seasons ago. Should have been patient with him. #thankful #happythanksgivinginCanada

[Craig]

[The Bean Regime]

I actually thought Grizzlies got worse.

Probably just being hopeful though.

Damn Clippers. Poor man's Grizzlies now.

[pistolpetejr]

I actually thought Grizzlies got worse.

Probably just being hopeful though.

Damn Clippers. Poor man's Grizzlies now.

Just because I’m curious, why worse?
I lost Fournier at the 3/2, but AD slides there. I gain Maker.
I lost Dieng, but gained Hickson who’s basically the same thing.
Lost Barber, gained Quickley.
Playing style will differ, but I’d honestly love to hear your perspective as to how I’m worse.

And no, I’m not offended. (:

[The Bean Regime]

I actually thought Grizzlies got worse.

Probably just being hopeful though.

Damn Clippers. Poor man's Grizzlies now.

Just because I’m curious, why worse?
I lost Fournier at the 3/2, but AD slides there. I gain Maker.
I lost Dieng, but gained Hickson who’s basically the same thing.
Lost Barber, gained Quickley.
Playing style will differ, but I’d honestly love to hear your perspective as to how I’m worse.

And no, I’m not offended. (:

For sure, mainly two things, one of which I realized really doesn't apply.

Just think that Fournier is a better player and fit, and that my personal experience seems to show that teams built around two dominant bigs never seem to perform as well as expected in this game (of course here, Davis is at SF and Melo is still the best player).

I suppose I'd say Dieng is better than Hickson. Enough so to make it worth mentioning. Turns it over more, terrible passing, and doesn't really block.

Very interested to see rebounding numbers though.

[Craig]

I actually thought Grizzlies got worse.

Probably just being hopeful though.

Damn Clippers. Poor man's Grizzlies now.

Just because I’m curious, why worse?
I lost Fournier at the 3/2, but AD slides there. I gain Maker.
I lost Dieng, but gained Hickson who’s basically the same thing.
Lost Barber, gained Quickley.
Playing style will differ, but I’d honestly love to hear your perspective as to how I’m worse.

And no, I’m not offended. (:

For sure, mainly two things, one of which I realized really doesn't apply.

Just think that Fournier is a better player and fit, and that my personal experience seems to show that teams built around two dominant bigs never seem to perform as well as expected in this game (of course here, Davis is at SF and Melo is still the best player).

I suppose I'd say Dieng is better than Hickson. Enough so to make it worth mentioning. Turns it over more, terrible passing, and doesn't really block.

Very interested to see rebounding numbers though.

I tend to agree with the Fournier/Maker swap in a vacuum, but I think having Melo throws it all out the window, he (at SG especially) just makes them almost impossible to beat.

If I were a betting man I’d take under 70...not because I think they’re any worse but just cause 70 is a crazy number and tough to beat no matter how good they are.

[pistolpetejr]

I actually thought Grizzlies got worse.

Probably just being hopeful though.

Damn Clippers. Poor man's Grizzlies now.

Just because I’m curious, why worse?
I lost Fournier at the 3/2, but AD slides there. I gain Maker.
I lost Dieng, but gained Hickson who’s basically the same thing.
Lost Barber, gained Quickley.
Playing style will differ, but I’d honestly love to hear your perspective as to how I’m worse.

And no, I’m not offended. (:

For sure, mainly two things, one of which I realized really doesn't apply.

Just think that Fournier is a better player and fit, and that my personal experience seems to show that teams built around two dominant bigs never seem to perform as well as expected in this game (of course here, Davis is at SF and Melo is still the best player).

I suppose I'd say Dieng is better than Hickson. Enough so to make it worth mentioning. Turns it over more, terrible passing, and doesn't really block.

Very interested to see rebounding numbers though.

What I agree with is that in FBB it is more difficult to build a winning team that takes it all with the bigs being the focal point. I’m confident that if I kept Fournier, who improved in TC btw, I would have had an excellent shot at threepeating. As it is, wanted to mix it up(: but I don’t feel it’s cost me my chances. Time will tell of course.

Craig, didn’t feel like quoting you separately, so I’ll iust comment here: I don’t think I’ll hit 70 either.

[Oregon Ownage]

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