More Interesting Than Playoff Race: The Lottery Race of 1983

[offtheheezy]

Taking my first stab at this, hope its interesting for some folks.

Started to do this research out of boredom with the pandemic and to see whether or not it would be worth it to trade my better players now.

There's been a bit of a tanking race going down near the end of the season, with some teams trading away their rotation players just for the sake of getting worse in the draft overall.

Let's take a look at the "Strength of Schedule" for each of the lottery teams in the remaining 20 days of the season:




I ran a simulation with these assumptions to see how the lottery race will pan out by seasons end. We made an assumption that you would win the games against the teams with a worse record than yourself, lose against the teams with a better record than yourself.




Couple of interesting findings here:
1. Even though Rockets/Magic have the same record right now, given the strength of schedule, Rockets are projected to finish higher than the Magic.
2. Same with the Warriors/Mavericks, they are tied but projections show Mavericks will finish higher than the Warriors.
3. Lakers/Trailblazers play 3x in the next 20 days, in an interesting twist where the Lakers may have the ability to pick up some easier wins.
4. Vancouver Grizzlies are hoping to jump up to the 6th worst record as opposed to the 5th worst record, where the percentage will go from 9.0% -> 10.5%

Obviously, simulation will be very off because rosters have changed so much since the start of the season, such as the Celtics who gave away a lot of their rotation players and traded Bird.

Day 100 (starting point):
1. Boston Celtics
2. Washington Bullets
3. Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic
4. Toronto Raptors
5. Dallas Mavericks/Golden State Warriors
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Vancouver Grizzlies
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
9. Los Angeles Lakers
10. Miami Heat
11. Portland Trailblazers


Day 105 Update:
1. Boston Celtics
2. Washington Bullets
3. Orlando Magic
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Houston Rockets
6. Toronto Raptors
7. Golden State Warriors
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Vancouver Grizzlies
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
11. Los Angeles Lakers
12. Miami Heat
13. Portland Trailblazers

Rockets drop two spots.
Mavericks rise 1-2 spots.
Bottom 5 stay the same.


Day 110:
1. Boston Celtics
2. Orlando Magic
3. Washington Bullets
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Houston Rockets
7. Golden State Warriors
8. Detroit Pistons/Vancouver Grizzlies
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
11. Los Angeles Lakers
12. Miami Heat
13. Portland Trailblazers

Magic rise a spot.
Bullets drop a spot.
Raptors rise a spot.
Rockets drop a spot.
Grizzlies/Pistons now tied.

[the goat]

So you're saying the Lakers are going to go 16-0?

[offtheheezy]

So you're saying the Lakers are going to go 16-0?

Hah, you actually have the opportunity to win more games than someone usually in your spot because you still play the Trailblazers 3x and Heat 1x. Usually rare for someone second to last in the West to have 4 games that they are favored in (purely record wise) over the next 20 days. Although with Bird now you will probably be favored against more teams.

[UOducksTK1]

I’d be shocked if I won’41 games

[offtheheezy]

I’d be shocked if I won’41 games

Haha yeah, the assumed projections are obviously not accurate, just interesting to see where we all lie relatively and with our upcoming strength of schedule.

[The Bean Regime]

ooh Lakers having 4 games against the Heat and Blazers. Those losses could be big.

Heat with his last 13/15 opponents being playoff teams has got to feel good for his chances.

If the Lakers can out tank Trailblazers in those games, I could see the Heat doing a little slippity slip in. I have a tough time seeing Lakers ending 1st.

[offtheheezy]

ooh Lakers having 4 games against the Heat and Blazers. Those losses could be big.

Heat with his last 13/15 opponents being playoff teams has got to feel good for his chances.

If the Lakers can out tank Trailblazers in those games, I could see the Heat doing a little slippity slip in. I have a tough time seeing Lakers ending 1st.

hah yeah, although at this point Lakers don't have the 1st pick so they're pushing to win. Helps their goals, Celtics are hoping they lose in those 4 big games

[Craig]

Saddest thread ever

[offtheheezy]

Let's keep track of how close this proxy gets (probably won't be close at all) in terms of relative standings.

Day 105:
1. Boston Celtics
2. Washington Bullets
3. Orlando Magic
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Houston Rockets
6. Toronto Raptors
7. Golden State Warriors
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Vancouver Grizzlies
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
11. Los Angeles Lakers
12. Miami Heat
13. Portland Trailblazers

Rockets drop two spots.
Mavericks rise 1-2 spots.
Bottom 5 stay the same.

[offtheheezy]

Bump for voting! Thanks everyone

[offtheheezy]

Day 110:
1. Boston Celtics
2. Orlando Magic
3. Washington Bullets
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Houston Rockets
7. Golden State Warriors
8. Detroit Pistons/Vancouver Grizzlies
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
11. Los Angeles Lakers
12. Miami Heat
13. Portland Trailblazers

Magic rise a spot.
Bullets drop a spot.
Raptors rise a spot.
Rockets drop a spot.
Grizzlies/Pistons now tied.

[lukeyrid13]

0 projected wins!

[offtheheezy]

0 projected wins!

hard to be projected to win anything if you have the worst record in the league right now, although you have already beaten me since the initial article was posted...

[Oregon Ownage]

Just in case, my preferences are:

John Bagley +5
Handling
Passing
Jumpshot
Inside Scoring

Handling went from B- to B

[offtheheezy]

Day 110:
1. Boston Celtics
2. Orlando Magic
3. Washington Bullets
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Houston Rockets
7. Golden State Warriors/Detroit Pistons
9. Cleveland Cavaliers
10. Vancouver Grizzlies
11. Los Angeles Lakers
12. Miami Heat
13. Portland Trailblazers

Pistons rise a spot.
Cavaliers rise a spot.
Grizzlies drop two spots...