Future Big Ten expansion again?

[Thomallister1291]

https://x.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1960690165774487688

I dunno how to feel about this, heck, I don't even know which teams could the conference add.

I personally would like Miami for very personal motives, but I've seen others wanting stuff like Calford or Kansas.

[UOducksTK1]

Notre Dame and someone from ACC?

[StevensTechU]

In 2030.

You know what would be cool? If the Big Ten expanded to include all the other D1 schools. Because it would be too many schools for one conference, they could split the teams into divisions by region and have the best teams play each other at the end of the season, some for the 'title' and others in 'bowls' thet celebrate a winning season.

[duckpoint]

In 2030.

You know what would be cool? If the Big Ten expanded to include all the other D1 schools. Because it would be too many schools for one conference, they could split the teams into divisions by region and have the best teams play each other at the end of the season, some for the 'title' and others in 'bowls' thet celebrate a winning season.

^^^ This is funny and It' nice to to imagine CFB back in the PAC 10 era getting an improved play off without fornicating the whole thing up...

That being said, since all traditions are now more or less rendered moot, I'm thinking that the next (final?) expansion of the Big 10 & SEC will also send some 'unworthy' teams down. Who do you think they would cut?

[duckpoint]

Considering my opinion that the Big 10 & SEC will break away to form a new CFB 'Super/Elite' league out of a manufactured necessity due to the talent disparity of the 'lesser' conferences, the next round of expansion could be the last before the move and could likely include some Big 10 & SEC teams getting cut depending on the actual number of teams in the new league.

The 2025 Sagarin pre-season ratings gives us as good of an idea as any of how teams measure up on perceived talent (top 50) and I asked Grok "what are the top 50 college football teams by annual revenue generation and program valuation". I think these two factors will determine who gets in and who is left out, and the strength of basketball programs could weigh in for those on the cusp.

Top 50 by (Sagarin) rating:

Big 10 - 13 ( Top 10 - 3, Top 20 - 5, Top 30 - 10, Top 40 - 12 )
SEC - 15 ( Top 10 - 5, Top 20 - 11, Top 30 - 13, Top 40 - 14 )
ACC - 13 ( Top 10 - 1, Top 20 - 3, Top 30 - 5, Top 40 - 8 )
Big 12 - 7 ( Top 10 - 0, Top 20 - 0, Top 30 - 1, Top 40 - 5 )
Independent - 1 ( Top 10 - 1, Top 20 - 1, Top 30 - 1, Top 40 - 1 )
Mountain West - 1 ( Top 10 - 0, Top 20 - 0, Top 30 - 0, Top 40 - 0 )


Top 50 by revenue/valuation (Grok):

Big 10 - 12 ( Top 10 - 3, Top 20 - 8, Top 30 - 12, Top 40 - 12 )
SEC - 15 ( Top 10 - 6, Top 20 - 9, Top 30 - 11, Top 40 - 15 )
ACC - 11 ( Top 10 - 0, Top 20 - 2, Top 30 - 3, Top 40 - 4 )
Big 12 - 11 ( Top 10 - 0, Top 20 - 0, Top 30 - 3, Top 40 - 8 )
Independent - 1 ( Top 10 - 1, Top 20 - 1, Top 30 - 1, Top 40 - 1 )
Mountain West - 0 ( Top 10 - 0, Top 20 - 0, Top 30 - 0, Top 40 - 0 )

Teams in bold are on both top 50 lists...

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

College Football 2025 ratings through games of 2025 August 23 Saturday - Week 0
RATING

1 Penn State A = 101.23 BIG TEN
2 Ohio State A = 100.80 BIG TEN
3 Oregon A = 99.32 BIG TEN
4 Notre Dame A = 98.17 I-A IND.
5 Texas A = 97.39 SEC
6 Alabama A = 96.52 SEC
7 Georgia A = 95.99 SEC
8 Texas A&M A = 93.29 SEC
9 LSU A = 92.82 SEC
10 Clemson A = 92.10 ACC

11 Miami-Florida A = 92.06 ACC
12 Florida A = 90.25 SEC
13 South Carolina A = 88.19 SEC
14 Mississippi A = 87.91 SEC
15 Tennessee A = 87.47 SEC
16 Auburn A = 85.70 SEC
17 Louisville A = 84.60 ACC
18 Michigan A = 84.53 BIG TEN
19 Oklahoma A = 84.17 SEC
20 Indiana A = 83.97 BIG TEN

21 SMU A = 83.94 ACC
22 Missouri A = 83.62 SEC
23 So. California A = 81.27 BIG TEN
24 Washington A = 80.43 BIG TEN
25 Arizona State A = 80.42 BIG 12
26 Arkansas A = 79.77 SEC
27 Iowa A = 79.77 BIG TEN
28 Georgia Tech A = 79.70 ACC
29 Nebraska A = 78.50 BIG TEN
30 Minnesota A = 78.49 BIG TEN

31 Texas Tech A = 78.40 BIG 12
32 Illinois A = 78.37 BIG TEN
33 Baylor A = 78.08 BIG 12
34 Wisconsin A = 77.62 BIG TEN
35 Kansas State A = 77.48 BIG 12
36 Utah A = 77.31 BIG 12
37 Florida State A = 77.27 ACC
38 Vanderbilt A = 77.27 SEC
39 Pittsburgh A = 77.21 ACC
40 Syracuse A = 76.58 ACC

41 Iowa State A = 76.40 BIG 12
42 Virginia Tech A = 76.32 ACC
43 TCU A = 75.73 BIG 12
44 NC State A = 75.65 ACC
45 Boise State A = 75.60 MOUNTAIN WEST
46 South Dakota State AA = 75.29 MISSOURI VALLEY *** Omitted ***
47 North Carolina A = 75.17 ACC
48 Kentucky A = 74.71 SEC
49 Duke A = 74.34 ACC
50 UCLA A = 74.27 BIG TEN
51 Boston College A = 74.13 ACC

https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1962568215365853583

Below is a list of the top 50 college football teams ranked by estimated program valuation and annual revenue generation for the 2025 season, based on the most recent data from sources like The Athletic, CNBC, Forbes, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today. The rankings prioritize Power 4 programs (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) and Notre Dame, with estimates for private schools where public financial data is limited. Note that valuations and revenues reflect football-specific contributions where possible, though some figures include broader athletic department revenue due to reporting practices.Methodology and Limitations:Valuation: Represents the estimated enterprise value of the football program if it were sold as a standalone entity. Factors include revenue multiples (5-13x for SEC/Big Ten, 4-9x for Big 12/ACC), media rights, ticket sales, donations, NIL impact, and market size. Valuations are from 2024-2025 analyses unless otherwise noted.

Revenue: Football-specific revenue (ticket sales, media rights, donations, licensing) from the 2023-24 fiscal year where available. Football typically accounts for ~75% of athletic department revenue for Power 4 schools.

Data Gaps: Private schools (e.g., USC, Notre Dame, Miami) do not publicly disclose detailed financials, so estimates are used. Revenue-sharing agreements (up to $20.5M per school starting 2025) are not fully reflected.

Ranking Criteria: Programs are ranked primarily by valuation, with revenue as a secondary factor when valuation data is incomplete. Estimates are used for lower-ranked programs based on conference revenue trends and historical data.

Sources: The Athletic (2025), CNBC (2024), Forbes (2018-2019), Wall Street Journal (2025), USA Today (2023-2024 revenue reports).

Top 50 College Football Teams by Valuation and Revenue (2025)

Rank / Team / Conference / Valuation (Est.) / Annual Revenue (Est., 2023-24) / Notes
1 / Ohio State / Big Ten / $1.957B / $280M / Massive fan base, 2024 national champion, $7B Big Ten media deal.
2 / Texas / SEC / $1.897B / $271M / SEC move, Longhorn Network, and rich donor base.
3 / Michigan / Big Ten / $1.655B / $225M / 2023 national title, large stadium, Big Ten revenue.
4 / Georgia / SEC / $1.348B / $210M+ / Two recent titles, strong recruiting, SEC media deal.
5 / Notre Dame / Independent / $1.290B / $215M / NBC TV deal, national brand, CFP appearance.
6 / Texas A&M / SEC / $1.264B / $279M / High donations, SEC revenue, consistent contender.
7 / Alabama / SEC / $978M / $214M / SEC media deal, historical brand, strong fan base.
8 / Nebraska / Big Ten / $943M / $205M / Revenue surge under Matt Rhule, Big Ten deal.
9 / Tennessee / SEC / $940M / $200M+ / $35M revenue increase, SEC media, CFP appearance.
10 / Oklahoma / SEC / $928M / $182M / SEC transition, historical success, strong brand.

11 / Penn State / Big Ten / $924M / $190M / CFP appearance, Big Ten revenue, large fan base.
12 / USC / Big Ten / $923M / $187M / Big Ten move, LA market, private school estimates.
13 / LSU / SEC / $916M / $200M+ / SEC revenue, consistent success, strong alumni support.
14 / Florida / SEC / $900M+ / $170M / SEC media deal, large market, recent revenue dip.
15 / Auburn / SEC / $900M+ / $180M / SEC revenue, passionate fan base, inconsistent performance.
16 / Wisconsin / Big Ten / $880M / $175M / Revenue boost under Luke Fickell, Big Ten deal.
17 / Clemson / ACC / $840M / $150M / ACC Network, past national titles, lower conference revenue.
18 / Florida State / ACC / $830M / $145M / ACC revenue, historical success, recent struggles.
19 / Oregon /Big Ten / $800M+ / $140M / Big Ten transition, Nike support, recent success.
20 / Washington / Big Ten / $800M+ / $130M / Big Ten move, 2023 CFP run, Seattle market.

21 / Michigan State / Big Ten / $700M-$800M / $120M / Big Ten revenue, large fan base, recent inconsistency.
22 / Iowa / Big Ten / $700M-$800M / $170M / Consistent performance, strong fan base, Big Ten deal.
23 / UCLA / Big Ten / $700M+ / $120M / Big Ten move, LA market, off-campus stadium limits revenue.
24 / Arkansas / SEC / $700M+ / $165M / SEC revenue, recent success under Sam Pittman.
25 / Oklahoma State / Big 12 / $600M-$700M / $160M / Strong Big 12 program, consistent performance.
26 / Kansas / Big 12 / $600M-$700M / $120M / Basketball revenue boosts football, Big 12 deal.
27 / Arizona State / Big 12 / $600M-$700M / $120M / Big 12 move, Tempe market, growth potential.
28 / Louisville / ACC / $600M-$700M / $110M / ACC revenue, solid middle-class program.
29 / Purdue / Big Ten / $600M-$700M / $110M / Big Ten stability, consistent performance.
30 / South Carolina / SEC / $600M+ / $110M / SEC revenue, improving under Shane Beamer.

31 / Kentucky / SEC / $600M+ / $110M / Basketball revenue supports football, SEC deal.
32 / Missouri / SEC / $600M+ / $110M / SEC revenue, recent playoff push.
33 / Mississippi State / SEC / $600M+ / $100M+ / SEC media deal, regional support.
34 / Ole Miss / SEC / $600M+ / $100M+ / SEC revenue, recent CFP appearance.
35 / Iowa State / Big 12 / $500M-$600M / $100M / Big 12 revenue, consistent performance.
36 / Kansas State / Big 12 / $500M-$600M / $100M / Big 12 revenue, strong fan base.
37 / Baylor / Big 12 / $500M-$600M / $100M / Big 12 revenue, private school boost, recent success.
38 / TCU / Big 12 / $500M-$600M / $100M / Big 12 revenue, 2022 CFP appearance, private school.
39 / West Virginia / Big 12 / $500M-$600M / $90M / Big 12 revenue, high attendance.
40 / North Carolina / ACC / $500M+ / $90M / ACC revenue, basketball support boosts football.

41 / NC State / ACC / $481M / $90M / ACC revenue, regional fan base.
42 / Virginia Tech / ACC / $400M-$500M / $80M / ACC revenue, strong fan base.
43 / Miami (FL) / ACC / $400M-$500M / $80M+ / Private school, strong brand, recent resurgence.
44 / Syracuse / ACC / $400M-$500M / $80M / ACC revenue, historical brand.
45 / Pittsburgh / ACC / $400M-$500M / $80M / ACC revenue, recent success.
46 / Colorado / Big 12 / $400M+ / $80M+ / Deion Sanders effect, Big 12 move, $50M+ economic impact.
47 / Utah / Big 12 / $400M+ / $80M / Big 12 move, recent Pac-12 success.
48 / Arizona / Big 12 /$400M+ / $80M / Big 12 move, growing market.
49 / California / ACC / $400M+ / $70M / ACC move, Bay Area market, limited football fan base.
50 / Stanford / ACC / $400M+ / $70M / Private school, academic prestige, ACC transition.

Key Observations:Big Ten and SEC Lead: These conferences dominate due to massive media rights deals (Big Ten: $7B over 7 years, SEC: $3B over 10 years). Ohio State and Texas lead with valuations approaching $2B.
Revenue Drivers: Ticket sales (e.g., Ohio State’s $64M in 2023), donations (Texas A&M’s $100M+), and media rights (SEC/Big Ten deals) are primary contributors. Notre Dame’s independent NBC deal ($20M+ annually) is unique.
Valuation Factors: High valuations reflect large alumni bases (e.g., Ohio State’s 600,000+), stadium size (Michigan’s 107,000+ capacity), and recent success (Georgia’s two titles). Revenue multiples are higher for SEC/Big Ten due to stability and growth potential.
Private Schools: Limited data for USC, Notre Dame, and Miami leads to estimates. Notre Dame’s $215M revenue is inferred from NBC deals and CFP earnings.
Emerging Programs: Colorado’s ranking reflects Deion Sanders’ impact, estimated at $50M+ in economic value. Realignment (e.g., Oregon to Big Ten, Utah to Big 12) boosts valuations for transitioning teams.
Lower Tier: ACC and Big 12 programs like Stanford and California rank lower due to smaller football fan bases and lower conference revenue compared to SEC/Big Ten.

[rsbgduck]

In 2030.

You know what would be cool? If the Big Ten expanded to include all the other D1 schools. Because it would be too many schools for one conference, they could split the teams into divisions by region and have the best teams play each other at the end of the season, some for the 'title' and others in 'bowls' thet celebrate a winning season.

^^^ This is funny and It' nice to to imagine CFB back in the PAC 10 era getting an improved play off without fornicating the whole thing up...

That being said, since all traditions are now more or less rendered moot, I'm thinking that the next (final?) expansion of the Big 10 & SEC will also send some 'unworthy' teams down. Who do you think they would cut?

I have to agree, I don’t see a true expansion. More of cutting the fat and bringing in teams like FSU, Miami, Clemson ND N. Carolina etc. although the schools to be considered is getting to be very small. As for schools that could be cut, couldn’t tell you but it will be based on what they bring or don’t bring financially to the conference.

[buckmarkduck]

Clemson and UNC. Dump Northwestern and also get Utah.