At Large Bids after Week 7

[StevensTechU]

Teams by conference who still have a shot as at-large bids. My test here essentially is who could get in if they ran the table the rest of the way but lost in their conference championship game.

Big 12 (3): Texas Tech, BYU, Utah
Big Ten (4): Ohio State, Indiana, USC, Oregon
ACC (2): Miami, Georgia Tech
G5 (0): None
Independent (1): Notre Dame
Property of ESPN (10): Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas, Oklahoma

20 teams vying for 11 spots. I'm basically rooting for USC over Notre Dame, anyone that plays BYU, and the bottom feeders of the SEC (Kentucky, Arkansas, Miss St, S Carolina, Florida, Auburn) the rest of the way.

One part that is tricky is what happens if UNLV goes undefeated and wins the MWC. They'd likely be ranked lower than the American winner (Memphis or South Florida, in all likelhood) but could they get in over some 2-loss P4 teams? I just want to note that as an asterisk to my comment of 20 teams vying for 11 spots.

[duckpoint]

I think you know the answer to your UNLV question...

Under the current CFP agreement, there is only 1 guaranteed slot for a non P4 team. It has been proven that they will deem a mid SEC team more worthy than an undefeated team from the wrong conference. (almost?) Any 2 loss P4 team will be ranked higher and take the spot.

[StevensTechU]

I'm going to add Illinois back in. I waffled while making this post, but if Illinois wins out that would mean:

- 10-2 record
- 0-2 against top 5, 1-0 against 6-25 (USC)
- 2-0 against 26-40 (Duke, washington)

That's frankly a better resume than a theoretical 10-2 Oregon, with the asterisk of how they each lost to Indiana.

[OrTDuck]

I know it might be seen as a longshot; but, Nebraska?

5-1 (2-1)

@ Minnesota
Northwestern
USC
@ UCLA
@ Penn State
Iowa

[StevensTechU]

Big 12: Utah is about to get eliminated while BYU gets a major boost to their resume. Texas Tech is on thin ice but I don't think they're eliminated.
Big 10: USC is all but eliminated. If Oregon won out and they beat us, I have to imagine they'd still have a shot but it's not a big one. No other changes.
ACC: Miami is still in but margin for error got smaller. Georgia Tech might make this a 2-bid league.
Independent: Notre Dame is going to the playoffs unless they lose to a bad team. The best team left on the schedule is Pitt.
ESPN's Pet League: Kentucky blew a chance in OT to knock out Texas. Auburn is probably going to do the same with Missouri as they go to OT. Tennessee probably isn't out but they need help. Georgia made it so they can absorb a second loss by beating #5 Ole Miss. LSU is in the same boat at Tennessee. If Vandy wins out, they're in.

G5 note- Memphis suffered its first loss and will need help to make their conference title game.

[greenyellow]

I know it might be seen as a longshot; but, Nebraska?

5-1 (2-1)

@ Minnesota
Northwestern
USC
@ UCLA
@ Penn State
Iowa

They're toast after Minnesota beat them soundly.

[StevensTechU]

Update of potential at-larges after week 9:

Big 12 (1): BYU [Utah and Texas Tech bounced]
Big Ten (3): Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon [USC bounced]
ACC (3): Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia (added UVA)
G5 (0): None
Independent (1): Notre Dame
Property of ESPN (6): Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt [Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, LSU bounced]

Previously I mentioned these teams as vying for 11 spots (excluding G6 spot), but it's maybe more appropriate to say these teams are vying for the 7 at-large spots because there are still many other teams that are still technically in the race for their conferences, especially the Big 12 and ACC.

[OrTDuck]

The team that shall not be named probably needs to be listed?

They have two essentially unlosable games and a third almost unlosable game to get to 9-2. H_s_y Stadium would be rocking on November 29th. Beat then (10-1) Oregon and they essentially finish tied for 3rd in the B1G with a head-to-head win (and one loss to tOSU). The B1G is going to get a minimum of 3. Do not like the thought; but, 2023 happened, so...

[StevensTechU]

The team that shall not be named probably needs to be listed?

They have two essentially unlosable games and a third almost unlosable game to get to 9-2. H_s_y Stadium would be rocking on November 29th. Beat then (10-1) Oregon and they essentially finish tied for 3rd in the B1G with a head-to-head win (and one loss to tOSU). The B1G is going to get a minimum of 3. Do not like the thought; but, 2023 happened, so...

The thought experiment here is what teams would/could make the playoffs if they win out but don't win their conference championship game.

If the fuskies win out, they'll need help, as they are currently ranked around 27th in the AP Poll. Because the SEC bottomfeeders (Arkansas, Auburn, etc.) refuse to beat the mid-tier SEC teams (Tennessee, Vanderbilt, etc.) I don't see them getting the help, which means that washington will need something like a win over Oregon, and USC beating Oregon, so that way they hold wins over two ranked teams at the end of the season (if Oregon beats USC, USC will fall out of the rankings).

I don't think it's a given that the Big Ten gets three teams. Oregon will likely end the year with zero ranked wins and USC blew their shot in their loss to Notre Dame. I thought we could afford two losses but now it's very possible the ACC gets two teams in the playoffs (UVa vs. GaTech in the championship, + Miami) and similar could happen in the Big 12 if BYU wins out but loses in the championship.

[SuperDuck]

The team that shall not be named probably needs to be listed?

They have two essentially unlosable games and a third almost unlosable game to get to 9-2. H_s_y Stadium would be rocking on November 29th. Beat then (10-1) Oregon and they essentially finish tied for 3rd in the B1G with a head-to-head win (and one loss to tOSU). The B1G is going to get a minimum of 3. Do not like the thought; but, 2023 happened, so...

The thought experiment here is what teams would/could make the playoffs if they win out but don't win their conference championship game.

If the fuskies win out, they'll need help, as they are currently ranked around 27th in the AP Poll. Because the SEC bottomfeeders (Arkansas, Auburn, etc.) refuse to beat the mid-tier SEC teams (Tennessee, Vanderbilt, etc.) I don't see them getting the help, which means that washington will need something like a win over Oregon, and USC beating Oregon, so that way they hold wins over two ranked teams at the end of the season (if Oregon beats USC, USC will fall out of the rankings).

I don't think it's a given that the Big Ten gets three teams. Oregon will likely end the year with zero ranked wins and USC blew their shot in their loss to Notre Dame. I thought we could afford two losses but now it's very possible the ACC gets two teams in the playoffs (UVa vs. GaTech in the championship, + Miami) and similar could happen in the Big 12 if BYU wins out but loses in the championship.

I'm concerned about Iowa and UW.

The fact that both Indiana and Wisconsin were able to get consistent pressure on Dante is a huge concern. Even if we can offset some of the pass rush by running the ball, that's still limiting the deep balls that Stein likes to throw, and minimizes our speed advantage on the outside. I'm not really worried about Minnesota, but the other 3 games worry me. Stein has got to find a way to buy more time for Dante in the pocket.

[OrTDuck]

The team that shall not be named probably needs to be listed?

If the fuskies win out, they'll need help, as they are currently ranked around 27th in the AP Poll. Because the SEC bottomfeeders (Arkansas, Auburn, etc.) refuse to beat the mid-tier SEC teams (Tennessee, Vanderbilt, etc.) I don't see them getting the help, which means that washington will need something like a win over Oregon, and USC beating Oregon, so that way they hold wins over two ranked teams at the end of the season (if Oregon beats USC, USC will fall out of the rankings).

I tend to doubt we will ever see the B1G or SEC ever settle for two teams in the playoffs. The power brokers did not go along with this system to only get in two teams.

Looking at the remaining games, seems very possible the B1G Champion will be 13-0 and the loser 12-1. Both would be locks in the old 4 team format. B1G going to be happy to see other two loss teams ahead of its third place team?

I am thinking something like:

Ohio State
Alabama
Indiana
Georgia
Oregon/Washington
Texas A&M
Old Miss
Vandy
Texas Tech/BYU
Georgia Tech/Miami/Virginia
ND
G5

Unlikely the SEC gets 5 and B1G only 2, unless maybe the rest of B1G has three losses. If there is a 10-2 B1G team as their #3, they will get in ahead of a 5th SEC team or any 2 loss Big-12 or ACC team. Georgia Tech still has Georgia and presumably Miami, one of those two likely ends up with two losses. BYU still has TT and Cincinnatti. UW at 11-2 does have a soft looking schedule but one loss to tOSU likely won't be held too much against them, like Penn State last year at 11-2 with one notable win, and that turned out to be 10-3 Illinois. I guess I could be way off.