OregonFan4Life wrote: Sun Nov 16, 2025 9:12 am
If Oregon loses to USC or Washington then they don’t deserve to be in the CFP, so I wouldn’t care personally if they were left out.
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Being as objective as possible, Oregon is a team that's dominated the bad teams on their schedule, but needed OT to beat Penn State, needed a last second field goal to beat Iowa, and lost by 10 at home to Indiana. It's not a great resume and while I think Oregon is a very dangerous team that I wouldn't want to meet in the playoffs, they haven't exactly looked unbeatable.
While true, Stu, couldn’t you make that same argument for teams 3-15? They have all looked susceptible… TAMU literally almost gagged it yesterday to a bottom feeder. Why are we being held to different standards? The answer is easy, the SEC is always positioned in a way where the national perception becomes reality and it’s crafted by big TV money. SEC teams struggle against a lot of teams and it’s totally ignored. It’s just so odd to me. Wasn’t ol Miss knotted up against The Citidale a week ago for a good part of the game?
I think that's a fair question and why I think Oregon should be a top 10 team. If you did this NCAA tournament style and break teams into quadrants (1-30, 31-60, etc.), Oregon would be 1-1 against the top 30, and if they lose to USC, 1-2 against the top 30 and possibly 2-2 if you give washington credit that they don't deserve. While I think we'd kick the s*** out of Ole Miss, they're between 1-1 and 3-1, depending on where you put Tulane and LSU. The South Shall Rise Again conference has a logjam of teams who are all around .500 among those top 30 opponents.
The key matchup is Lemon v. Finney. Lemon is perhaps the top receiver in the country, specializing in catching in heavy traffic. Finney is a lockdown CB with a three-inch height advantage. The refs will have a lot to do with how this works out.
OregonFan4Life wrote: Sun Nov 16, 2025 9:12 am
If Oregon loses to USC or Washington then they don’t deserve to be in the CFP, so I wouldn’t care personally if they were left out.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Being as objective as possible, Oregon is a team that's dominated the bad teams on their schedule, but needed OT to beat Penn State, needed a last second field goal to beat Iowa, and lost by 10 at home to Indiana. It's not a great resume and while I think Oregon is a very dangerous team that I wouldn't want to meet in the playoffs, they haven't exactly looked unbeatable.
While true, Stu, couldn’t you make that same argument for teams 3-15? They have all looked susceptible… TAMU literally almost gagged it yesterday to a bottom feeder. Why are we being held to different standards? The answer is easy, the SEC is always positioned in a way where the national perception becomes reality and it’s crafted by big TV money. SEC teams struggle against a lot of teams and it’s totally ignored. It’s just so odd to me. Wasn’t ol Miss knotted up against The Citidale a week ago for a good part of the game?
2-15. IU took a miracle to beat Penn St. Ohio st just hasn’t played anyone at all, so hard to know if they have weaknesses or not.
I like, check that…I LOVE STU’s example of using the Quadrant model from the hoops side.
I will die on the hill that had Penn State beat us their season looks different and that we would have been pissed and beat Indiana. I think if we play Indiana again we will just line up and treat them like we did Iowa. We won’t get cute. I said it before, Cig runs his mouth and he was smart enough to zip it before they played us. We came in flying high and got rightfully knocked down a peg.
This team has also shown that when they feel backed in a corner or disrespected, they can play with and beat anyone. Not just beat. BEAT UP and BULLY. We physically dominated Iowa and Minnesota is a sound Top 30 D and we just overwhelmed them with power and speed.
Because of youth, and I’m not talking about “game experience youth” (that ship sailed, our roster is experienced this late in the season). I’m talking about actual age and emotional maturity of these young men.
We were flying high, reading our own clippings and having a bit of an ego before we played Indiana. This team is susceptible to rat poison and I hope Dan is cooking up some ways to make them feel slighted. Usually we don’t have to get up for USC since a lot of these guys grew up playing with or against players on USC.
If this current Duck team shows up to ANY game feeling pissed and looking for a back alley scrap I like us against anyone not named tOSU.
USC offense is good, the 2nd best offense Oregon will face this year. Their defense is slightly above average. Statically the USC pass and run defense rank about the same in efficiency. Because Oregon's offense is so balanced I don't see USC trying do load up against either the run or pass. If teams play to their norms Oregon would win by 7 to 10 points. Of course in most any game one or both teams play off their norm.
For me USC has passed OSU, OhSU and UW as most hated opponent though I don't consider them rivals like I do the aforementioned three. They haven't earned "Rival" status in my mind, but have "Arrogant Assholes" status locked.
USC sucks because they literally have arguments for everything and they use them circularly. But that has been harder for them to do lately with the advent of NIL and the Portal. To wit:
- “We don’t show up to games because there is so much to do in LA”. Well, what was the excuse against Iowa when the weather was too bad to do anything outdoors?
- “The only reason the Ducks get the players we want is because they pay them.” Ok, NIL is now legal and you guys are always bragging about your ultra-rich celebrity alumni so what’s the excuse now?
And finally, the biggest eye roll of all, that even otherwise level-headed USC fans seem to believe:
- “every kid west of the Mississippi dreams of one day playing for USC. If they don’t come here it’s because we don’t want them.”
Go back and look at USC since 1990.
They are 257-151-2. Including 69-34 in the 10’s and 20’s.
That is a WP of 67%. Basically 9-4 every year if you include a bowl game. They last won NC’s in 2003 and 2004. (Eff the NCAA for making them vacate them. Not cool. It was done to protect the SEC against USC.)
USC likes to think they are relevant and they haven’t been since most of this current generation of college kids was born. That’s what has held them back. They are the IBM to Oregon’s Google/Apple.
To an 18 yr old born in 2007 let’s look at Oregon:
2007 - Dixon, Heisman shoulda, coulda, etc
2008 - Meh
2009 - Rose Bowl
2010 - Natty
2011 - Rose Bowl (SC beats us due to Maldanado)
2012 - Fiesta Bowl and #1-#2 of year
2013 - meh, still Top-5 team most of year
2014 - Natty
2015 - likely playoff if not for VA injury
2016 - trainwreck
2017 - meh
2018 - back on track
2019 - P12 champs and Rose Bowl champs
2020 - P12 champs and Fiesta Bowl loss
2021 - Top 4 team until Mario bolts
2022 - Top 10 most of season
2023 - Top 5 most of season
2024 - 13-0 #1 most of season
2025 - #2-#8 most of season so far
Calling a spade a spade, except for 4 of the 9 Pete Carroll seasons of 2002-2006, they really haven’t been relevant for 35 years.
duckpoint wrote: Sun Nov 16, 2025 1:33 pm
Oregon record vs USC since 1994.
Overall: 13-6*
Home: 7-2*
* USC vacated 2005 win at Autzen not included in results.
Age restricted due to the video title being "Pete Carroll says 'F*ck you' to Mike Bellotti"
We should pull a uw, and hang a banner for 2005. Both L came to teams who vacated their wins.
#15 USC @ #6 Oregon (Nov. 22, Sat 12:30 PM CBS)
Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2025 9:56 am
by UofDuck
GrandpaDuck wrote:USC offense is good, the 2nd best offense Oregon will face this year. Their defense is slightly above average. Statically the USC pass and run defense rank about the same in efficiency. Because Oregon's offense is so balanced I don't see USC trying do load up against either the run or pass. If teams play to their norms Oregon would win by 7 to 10 points. Of course in most any game one or both teams play off their norm.
For me USC has passed OSU, OhSU and UW as most hated opponent though I don't consider them rivals like I do the aforementioned three. They haven't earned "Rival" status in my mind, but have "Arrogant Assholes" status locked.
Great points and you are spot on with the value of being balanced on offense. I understand some on here saying “just pound the rock” Yes, establishing the run is key. But we have a QB with lethal passing skills. To ignore that is just silly and not leaning into that hampers our ability to really be effective at the run. Dante shredded MN. Our balanced attack was a thing of beauty.
