CFP SF: #5 Oregon v #1 Indiana (Jan. 9, Fri 4:30 PM ESPN)

[dthomas=ddixon]

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This is what I am planning to do my next post on. I want to compare years of college football played for Indiana versus a Oregon.

Looking forward to it. Reminds me of DeBoer’s UW teams, which had a lot of 6th year guys at key positions.

[OregonFan4Life]

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This is what I am planning to do my next post on. I want to compare years of college football played for Indiana versus a Oregon.

I’ve noticed this, I said this to some friends but I don’t think Indiana makes the playoffs for a while after this season and I also wonder if Cignetti is gonna bolt for the NFL soon. I don’t feel like he’s setting the program up for sustained success at this level unlike Dan and he’s putting everything he has into this season. Meanwhile while I do think Indiana wins the Peach Bowl I have a lot more confidence in what is being built at Oregon going into the future than what is being built at Indiana. I don’t mean that to take anything away from Cignetti though, what he’s done at Indiana is amazing and remarkable, he and his coaching staff are legends in the sport. I just think Oregon is more likely to make the playoffs the next three years and win a natty than Indiana is.


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[StevensTechU]

I’ve noticed this, I said this to some friends but I don’t think Indiana makes the playoffs for a while after this season and I also wonder if Cignetti is gonna bolt for the NFL soon. I don’t feel like he’s setting the program up for sustained success at this level unlike Dan and he’s putting everything he has into this season. Meanwhile while I do think Indiana wins the Peach Bowl I have a lot more confidence in what is being built at Oregon going into the future than what is being built at Indiana. I don’t mean that to take anything away from Cignetti though, what he’s done at Indiana is amazing and remarkable, he and his coaching staff are legends in the sport. I just think Oregon is more likely to make the playoffs the next three years and win a natty than Indiana is.

I don't know that recruiting 5* 18 year olds who bolt after 3 years in the best case (and most don't play winning football in year 1) instead of mid-major all-stars with 2-3 years of eligibility is any more sustainable.

[StevensTechU]

This isn't going to be perfect. For one, I'm using Ourlads' depth charts. Then you have injuries. But it should provide a reasonable indication of experience. Below is each team's starters and how many years of college football they've played, including FCS and JUCO experience.

Indiana Offense: Elijah Sarratt (4), EJ Williams (6), Omar Cooper JR (4), Carter Smith (4), Drew Evans (4), Pat Coogan (5), Bray Lynch (4), Adedamola Ajani (2), Riley Nowakowski (6), Fernando Mendoza (4), Roman Hemby (5)

Oregon Offense: Dakorien Moore (1), Malik Benson (5), Gary Bryant JR (6), Isaiah World (5), Emmanuel Pregnon (6), Iapani Laloulu (3), Dave Iuli (4), Alex Harkey (5), Kenyon Sadiq (3), Dante Moore (3), Noah Whittington (6)

Total years of college football: 48 (IU), 47 (UofO)

Indiana Defense: Mikail Kamara (6), Tyrique Tucker (4), Mario Landino (2), Daniel Ndukwe (2), Rolijah Hardy (3), Aiden Fisher (4), Jamari Sharpe (4), Louis Moore (6), Amare Ferrell (3), D'Angelo Ponds (3), Devan Boykin (6)

Oregon Defense: Matayo Uiagalelei (3), Bear Alexander (4), A'Mauri Washington (3), Teitum Tuioti (3), Bryce Boettcher (4), Jerry Mixon JR (3), Theran Johnson (5), Aaron Flowers (2), Dillon Thieneman (3), Brandon Finney JR (1), Jadon Canady (5)

Total Years of college football: 43 (IU), 36 (UofO)

[SuperDuck]

Guys, we had just gotten the ball back and were playing for the game tying drive when Dante's pass got tipped and intercepted. IU kicks a FG to put away the game.

Some of us are sounding like the game is over and we already lost. That's just crazy talk!

These two teams are very comparable and it should be a competitive game with either one having a chance to win.

It's NOT like they came into Autzen and blew us out! They came in with a solid game plan, executed it well, we couldn't find an answer for their defensive pressure and we lost a close game.

THAT is the reality of what happened, so I don't see the reason at all for the doom and gloom posts. Step up, stay positive and support OUR Ducks!!!

I sure hope the players and coaches aren't thinking like this. Bobby Boucher isn't going to show up at halftime and save us. We need to step up our mindset!!!

Go Ducks, Beat Indiana!!!

Btw, yes, IU beat Ohio State, but OSU also missed a chip shot FG in the 4th that would have tied it. If not for that Indiana may have lost.

In addition, go look at the last drive of their game against Penn State. They got SO lucky.

They're human just like us. So stop the crazy talk and let's go win the Natty!!!

[bdkipe]

SuperDuck, you need to realize that is not our brand here. If we were playing Sunset High School JV in an exhibition game there would be 2-3 posters on here espousing how our Oline was about to be dominated, etc, etc.

For me, this is going to come down to what is going on between Dante’s ears.

Dante is an old soul, I love his personality and I love his heart. But Dante gets in his own head sometimes and can be his own worst enemy when he goes through those mini-lapses in confidence he gets against good defenses.

He got spooked in the first game against IU and it steamrolled on him. They are going to try and confuse the hell out of him this game and they are going to come after him. If he can be hang in the fight mentally and just take what they give we will be ok.

Changing gears, there’s a great write up on Mendoza from a former NFL scout. It links to some of the things Ryan Walters & Purdue did effectively against him in 2025.

https://x.com/firstroundmock/status/200 ... 10720?s=46

He’s not superhuman, Indiana is not invincible and Oregon simply needs to clean a few things up, lace them up and lezzzggggoooo. Will we win? I don’t know, but we have a shot.

Remember, IU was lucky to escape Iowa City and Happy Valley with wins, just like we were so they can be had.

[greenyellow]

For all the people who say Oregon relies too heavily on transfers, they actually have the highest percentage of recruited players starting compared to the other CFP semifinalists.

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[whosyourwally]

I’m worried the take that round 1 was an evenly matched game through 3.5 quarters is a bit of revisionist history. The game was tied in the 4th, and the stats were pretty even, so I’m not standing on solid ground here, but to me, it felt like Indiana played the entire game downhill while Oregon hung on for dear life. I remember saying to a friend in the 4th “I have no idea how this game is tied.”

Oregon had the momentum for all of about 30 seconds after Finney’s pick-6, and then the D gave it right back.

My take - momentum won that game and, while Oregon is good at a lot of things, holding on to momentum hadn’t been one of those things… until the Oregon D just wouldn’t let it go against TT. Offense was happy to gift wrap it for most of the TT game, but we’ll need that same relentless D to show up against IU, because once again, my money is on the momentum.

IU has shown an ability to punch teams in the face early (big hits, dominant drives) and ride that momentum out. Oregon has to flip that script and win Q1 this time.


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[Duck07]

I love the media overreaction to IU's Bama win and it kind of makes me feel like the Hoosiers won't have played a real game in over a month when they do play us. It reminds me almost of when we beat Florida State in the Rose Bowl and then lost to Ohio State after they had just played a tough game against Bama where we looked like the team that wasn't ready for the physicality of the game at the LOS, perhaps because we didn't get as challenged on the LOS. (respective of other issues, we lost because they ran all over us)

Still think this is a chin-strap game where it will come down to who wins the trenches/run game and I'd love to see our RB's go off.

[buckmarkduck]

Before somebody drops the "It's really hard to beat a team twice in a season," I want to say NO IT ISN'T - THAT'S AN NFL TROPE.

In rematches this year, Texas Tech thumped BYU after thumping them the first time. Mississippi thumped Tulane after thumping them the first time. Georgia Southern beat App State after beating them the first time. Georgia and Mississippi played a back-and-forth game after playing a back-and-forth game the first time. Montana State beat Montana even worse the second time than the first time.

Don't believe the examples above? Ask Lanning how the two games against Uw in 2023 went.

More often than not, the second game looks a good deal like the first game. So let's hope Oregon stretches out their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses and we see an 11 point swing for the team that doesn't have Curt Cignetti as its coach and seemingly mascot.

It’s hard to beat at a team with equal talent and skill. bYu would have gone 6-6 at best in the big or sec.

And before anyone points out what IU did to bama, I’m 100% positive UW would have beat bama in Seattle. So it’s not that impressive.


But when teams play each other twice and are basically equal, it’s very hard to beat them again. Unless you have soft baked cookies running an injuries Bucky, instead of playing a healthy Jane’s who killed the Husky D in his limited carry’s

[UofDuck]

As an addition to my earlier post about the new psychology Indiana now finds themselves in, Cignetti is reaching to establish the underdog roll in anyway he can:

Indiana head football coach Curt Cignetti expressed his belief Saturday that Oregon has a specific advantage entering their College Football Playoff semifinal matchup…. Beating a team twice….

Like I said before, Indiana’s new position of being the prettiest girl at the dance could help or hurt them. Confidence is good, over-confidence is not. Players and coaches can get caught up in their own press.

[greenyellow]

[GrandpaDuck]

This is my small take from the first Indiana game. Dante had been flushed out of the pocket multiple times prior to the Indiana game but never sacked. IU seemed to know Dante's tendencies when avoiding pressure and anticipated them like no team before or after and converted pressures into sacks.

I don't think that Dante can or should try to change his instinctual moves for this game that would seem impossible or at least counter productive. But up to the Indiana game Oregon probably felt that between the o-line and Dante's escape ability that drive ending sacks weren't going to be an issue. Hopefully going into this game and after TT, Oregon will anticipate that IU will be able to generate frequent penetration and prepare accordingly.

[pezsez1]

This is my small take from the first Indiana game. Dante had been flushed out of the pocket multiple times prior to the Indiana game but never sacked. IU seemed to know Dante's tendencies when avoiding pressure and anticipated them like no team before or after and converted pressures into sacks.

That was my take as well. And I feel that since the Indiana game, Dante has more or less stayed on script and erased this tendency. The O-line has gelled, receivers have stepped up, and the RB room has coalesced behind three clear leaders (I think six players had carries in the first Indiana game). We ran the ball really well in the first Indiana game, but for whatever reason Stein abandoned the run in the second half.

Also in that first game, our defense was highly effective at limiting Indiana's attack. It only slipped later in the game after being left on the field for too long by the offense.

Our defense is legit and it will do what it does. It will play well enough to win this game.

Indiana won't have any surprises. That team does what it does. It will also play well enough to win.

The big question is our offense. Are we going to be a disjointed mess with no rhythm, or are we going to find ways to throw the ball to our insanely large stable of receivers and tight ends while constantly pushing the ball downfield for chunks of yards? While finding ways for our runningbacks to do better than 2 yards per carry? I don't think any team left in the playoffs can match the potential firepower of Dante Moore and our incredible TEs and receivers. It's why I was screaming at my TV during the Texas Tech game when Stein wasn't dialing up any quick passing plays after they'd worked so flawlessly on our opening drive. If we can uncork those receivers, we won't just beat Indiana, we'll win the whole god damn thing.

Anyway, this isn't a slam dunk. I do think Indiana will probably win. But it's not because I think they're better, it's more that I just haven't seen Oregon play to its potential this season, and it's difficult to see that finally happening against such a great team. COULD it happen? Absolutely.

I keep thinking back to last year's Ohio State game at Autzen. Many of us were excited about Evan Stewart transferring to Oregon, but over the first few games, DG barely even looked his way. Then came the Ohio State game and BOOM it was the Evan Stewart show! I've always felt that was gamesmanship at its best, the essence of holding back a secret weapon until just the right moment. And then I look at all of our receivers right now, and I think about last week, and how we barely went to Moore or Bryant, and how Benson and McClennon were eerily quiet, and how we ran the ball half the time even though it wasn't working....

I'm just saying, maybe it's all by design, and maybe something big is about to happen.

Speaking of receivers, any word on Evan Stewart?

[OregonFan4Life]

I’m right with you Pez. Even today I talked to some people at Church and they’re like “if the ducks just clean things up on offense” which I reminded them we’ve said that many times this season after close wins against good defenses yet somehow in every big game when our offense has a chance to stomp on the opponent’s throat, they find a way to shoot themselves in the foot (bad interception, bad exchange on a handoff, dumb penalty, guard stepping on the QB’s foot, stupid unnecessary roughness). To me, if you expect the offense to play clean against Indiana, you’re insane IMO, nothing we have seen will indicate that suddenly the offense will play this clean football and execute at a high level in a big game like this against a good defense in Indiana’s. I certainly hope it happens and would love to be wrong and if I am I hope everyone here calls me out, I just don’t expect it to happen.

It also drives me crazy when people blame the players, I will always blame the grown ups in the room. I’m so tired of hearing “Stein called the right play but Moore didn’t see the receiver” “if the RB didn’t fumble” “the receiver just ran the wrong route.” I truly believe if we spent this season running a single system on offense and working to perfect it instead of trying so many different formations/packages with a ton of “pre-snap eye candy”, then our offense would execute at a much higher level.

I will be really frustrated if I end up being right, because I believe this is a golden opportunity for this coaching staff. Oregon is truly the most talented team in the semi-finals and should win, but if they lose cause they can’t get it together on offense after having 14 games and 5 months of practice, it would be quite the disappointment.


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