A super-quick look at the 2012 team
Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:15 am
Offense:
We're going to build around last year's big crop of freshmen and hope for KC Serna/Danny Pulfer-levels of improvement between their frosh and sophomore years. We started 5 freshmen pretty much every day once Pac-10 play started; 4 remain with the team.
1B Ryon Healy is the centerpiece. He's our returning leader in AVG (.320) and HR (4). This kid is going to be good (he already is), and we've got him for two more years. C Aaron Jones played in right last year, but it looks like we're going to put him at catcher in 2012. He was our first-half MVP before Pulfer got red-hot down the stretch, and Jones hit the freshman wall. He gets on base and has a knack for the big hit. CF Brett Thomas started slow last year but finished really well, hitting just under .300 and posting an OBP over .400. With Pulfer gone, I imagine Thomas will be our new leadoff hitter. Fast, and he flat gets on base. LF Kyle Garlick has a big bat with power potential, while maintaining a respectable AVG and he knows how to draw a walk.
INF Tyler Kuresa and OF Connor Hoffman are two other members of our big sophomore class who didn't well as as freshmen, but have potential and will challenge for starting gigs in 2012.
SS should go to JJ Altobelli, our 3B of the last two years who's filled in at short previously during KC Serna's absences. He was better with the stick as a sophomore than he was a junior, but here's hoping for a return to form.
There's a couple openings, IMO, in RF, 3B, and 2B. Kuresa and Hoffman are certainly challengers, a couple little-used guys from last year should be in the mix (I'd beg Aaron Payne to start at 2B, another sophomore). Andrew Mendenhall is still around in the outfield. Our new kids will get a crack at the openings, too, I just don't know much about them other than where some of them were drafted.
Pitching:
I like our starters. Credit Horton and Checketts (who will be missed) for developing a staff that could lose Anderson and Boer to the first three rounds of the draft (or was Boer a 2nd rounder?), and we should still be fine in the pitching department.
Alex Kuedell should be back, and either he or Christian Jones should headline the staff. Jones has better stuff and really started to put it all together at the end of last year, but Kuedell is a bit more consistent at this point. Naturally, that could change with summer and fall ball under their belts, stuff that we're not privy to (unless you're a diehard who follows that). Either way you want to pencil them in on the rotation, neither one is Tyler Anderson but both are good enough to severely limit the opponent's production and give our bats a chance to win the game. Porter Clayton is my pick to win the Sunday job. He's got amazing stuff, and I think he's going to go the way of Madison Boer; downright ugly at times as a freshman trying to figure out the college game, but when it clicks, it's going to click. A couple of our other freshmen pitched better, but no one has the ceiling Clayton has. He's going on his mission after 2012, so this is the last year we've got him. Incidentally, it's also the last chance he has to make an impression on scouts.
And then we have the bullpen, the difference last year in our staying home for the postseason. Gone are McGough and Moen. Moen actually pitched quite well last year. I think Brando Tessar, another member of our giant sophomore class, is the key here; he's our returning leader in appearances and innings pitched out of the 'pen, and he was filthy in 2011 (2.08 era). I think he'll get first crack at the closer's role. Joey Housey will compete for the job, but he's probably better in a setup role. Jeff Gold, another sophomore, pitched competently enough for us last year. Brandon Brennan (a sophomore!) has good stuff.
What we need to do is figure out a firm order in our bullpen. Lots of arms, but a lot of guys will be adapting to new roles. Our incoming freshmen will also play a big role in the bullpen, and potentially in our 4th and 5th starters. That 4th starter is a very underrated role in college baseball, most series pre-conference play go 4 games, and there are several mid-week games once Pac-12 play does start. It's hard to say what our freshmen will do, but one would think RHP Cole Wiper will be in the mix either to start or play a key role in the bullpen. He was a 14th round pick of the Blue Jays, he's got an electric arm and he's probably our most ready-to-go frosh. Jake Reed was a 40th round selection. I'm not saying that our drafted kids who end at school will be better than the non-drafted kids, but it does give you some names to watch out for. We all new Justin LaTempa and Zach Thornton were going to be pretty good after they chose Oregon over minor league ball, and they turned out alright. Sam Johnson, who just won state at Westview, wasn't drafted but I expect him to be in the mix fairly early.
We're going to build around last year's big crop of freshmen and hope for KC Serna/Danny Pulfer-levels of improvement between their frosh and sophomore years. We started 5 freshmen pretty much every day once Pac-10 play started; 4 remain with the team.
1B Ryon Healy is the centerpiece. He's our returning leader in AVG (.320) and HR (4). This kid is going to be good (he already is), and we've got him for two more years. C Aaron Jones played in right last year, but it looks like we're going to put him at catcher in 2012. He was our first-half MVP before Pulfer got red-hot down the stretch, and Jones hit the freshman wall. He gets on base and has a knack for the big hit. CF Brett Thomas started slow last year but finished really well, hitting just under .300 and posting an OBP over .400. With Pulfer gone, I imagine Thomas will be our new leadoff hitter. Fast, and he flat gets on base. LF Kyle Garlick has a big bat with power potential, while maintaining a respectable AVG and he knows how to draw a walk.
INF Tyler Kuresa and OF Connor Hoffman are two other members of our big sophomore class who didn't well as as freshmen, but have potential and will challenge for starting gigs in 2012.
SS should go to JJ Altobelli, our 3B of the last two years who's filled in at short previously during KC Serna's absences. He was better with the stick as a sophomore than he was a junior, but here's hoping for a return to form.
There's a couple openings, IMO, in RF, 3B, and 2B. Kuresa and Hoffman are certainly challengers, a couple little-used guys from last year should be in the mix (I'd beg Aaron Payne to start at 2B, another sophomore). Andrew Mendenhall is still around in the outfield. Our new kids will get a crack at the openings, too, I just don't know much about them other than where some of them were drafted.
Pitching:
I like our starters. Credit Horton and Checketts (who will be missed) for developing a staff that could lose Anderson and Boer to the first three rounds of the draft (or was Boer a 2nd rounder?), and we should still be fine in the pitching department.
Alex Kuedell should be back, and either he or Christian Jones should headline the staff. Jones has better stuff and really started to put it all together at the end of last year, but Kuedell is a bit more consistent at this point. Naturally, that could change with summer and fall ball under their belts, stuff that we're not privy to (unless you're a diehard who follows that). Either way you want to pencil them in on the rotation, neither one is Tyler Anderson but both are good enough to severely limit the opponent's production and give our bats a chance to win the game. Porter Clayton is my pick to win the Sunday job. He's got amazing stuff, and I think he's going to go the way of Madison Boer; downright ugly at times as a freshman trying to figure out the college game, but when it clicks, it's going to click. A couple of our other freshmen pitched better, but no one has the ceiling Clayton has. He's going on his mission after 2012, so this is the last year we've got him. Incidentally, it's also the last chance he has to make an impression on scouts.
And then we have the bullpen, the difference last year in our staying home for the postseason. Gone are McGough and Moen. Moen actually pitched quite well last year. I think Brando Tessar, another member of our giant sophomore class, is the key here; he's our returning leader in appearances and innings pitched out of the 'pen, and he was filthy in 2011 (2.08 era). I think he'll get first crack at the closer's role. Joey Housey will compete for the job, but he's probably better in a setup role. Jeff Gold, another sophomore, pitched competently enough for us last year. Brandon Brennan (a sophomore!) has good stuff.
What we need to do is figure out a firm order in our bullpen. Lots of arms, but a lot of guys will be adapting to new roles. Our incoming freshmen will also play a big role in the bullpen, and potentially in our 4th and 5th starters. That 4th starter is a very underrated role in college baseball, most series pre-conference play go 4 games, and there are several mid-week games once Pac-12 play does start. It's hard to say what our freshmen will do, but one would think RHP Cole Wiper will be in the mix either to start or play a key role in the bullpen. He was a 14th round pick of the Blue Jays, he's got an electric arm and he's probably our most ready-to-go frosh. Jake Reed was a 40th round selection. I'm not saying that our drafted kids who end at school will be better than the non-drafted kids, but it does give you some names to watch out for. We all new Justin LaTempa and Zach Thornton were going to be pretty good after they chose Oregon over minor league ball, and they turned out alright. Sam Johnson, who just won state at Westview, wasn't drafted but I expect him to be in the mix fairly early.
I looked for him to be a co-leader of this team, along w/JJ. Damn.
So, oregontrack, what do the rosters on the other 11 PAC-12 teams have returning? Did we lose a disproportionate number of guys, or what?