Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

Ok, as new year just a couple days away, I'm in between my excitement for Rose Bowl and my apathy(?) for basketball team. Let's take a guess at opening series for baseball at Hawaii, which is now 46 days away (I think).

Reading the tea leaves (or more accuately, listening to people I know connected to program), here's my guess what lineup and pitching rotation will be for Hawaii:

Starting rotation:

1)Nogosek
2) Paddon
3)Peterson
4)Irvin

Closer:
Cleavinger

Relief:
1)Harber
2)Stiles
3)Reta
4)Karraker
5)Susnara

Positions and batting order:

1)Catalano - CF
2)Tolman - 2B
3)Chase - C
4)Packard - RF
5)St. Louis - DH
6)Balta - 1B
7)Karaviotis - SS
8)Eureste - 3B
9)Grebeck - LF

1st bats off bench:

Cuddy
Graham
Goldfarb

Some notes and reasons I'm predicting these spots:

1) Pitchers - Irvin on pitch count, want to bring him along slowly. Nogosek / Paddon will be Friday/Saturday guy in Hawaii, but not sure which will be which. Peterson really good in fall, he's legit. Harber also really good in fall coming out of bullpen, he'll be 8th inning guy, with Clevinger closing. Others listed will be situational types.

2) Position Players - Lineup a function of splitting up righties and lefties somewhat (although 4,5,6 all lefties). St. Louis gets nod at DH over Cuddy initially. Tolman at 2b as he knows and undersands signs, picks, cuts, situational stuff, where as Eureste doesn't. Want to be strong up middle as much as possible and it's a better fit with Karaviotis/Tolman there. Outfield between Catalano, Grebeck, Packard, covers a lot of ground, very defensively sound. Chase is catcher with Graham backup.

Lineup is expected to be dangerous thru out. Top to bottom strongest group of hitters since reinstated program. They were second in Pac 12 last year in runs per game and expectations high they'll far exceed numbers from last year.

As mentioned, Irvin will be out there from beginning of season, he's ahead of schedule on rehab. Hopefully regains same form from 2 seasons ago. Krook is also ahead of schedule and expectation is will be back (in limited use) by end of regulation season. Heineman. Not sure if physically he's ready to perform yet. He just started swinging a bat and doesn't know if he's just a pitcher now. That'll be something to follow and see how plays out, but don't expect to see him playing in Hawaii unless it's a pinch running situation.

Presumptious to expect another sweep in Hawaii (that would make 3 years in a row), so I'll say Oregon takes series 3-1.

For Rose Bowl, I'll go Oregon 38-24.

Not sure how confident I'll be to start the season if Nogosek and Paddon are our first two out of the rotation. I like the potential in Nogosek, but to go to #1 is a big jump for him. Can he handle it? And Paddon didn't overly impress me last year. He gave up a lot of extra base hits, and didn't look like starter material. But he was only a freshman last year as well. Hope I'm wrong!

Also, is Bryant still around?

I think Bryant was dealing with some injuries in fall, not sure where he stands in regards to health and playtime.

great stuff. love having someone connected to the program.

i'm comfortable with trying out nogosek on fridays, at least until irvin's pitch count is at the necessary level. his first start was against #1 oregon state and his second was against vanderbilt in a do or die; he left after 7 in the latter with a 2-1 lead. he doesn't seem like a kid who gets frightened by big stages. and paddon -- i mean, he looked like a freshman to me. some good outings, some bad ones. i wouldn't go so far as to say he doesn't strike me as a starter, he struck me last year as a freshman pressed into service because of mounting injuries. for every cole irvin or matt krook, who look ridiculously awesome from day one, there's a tyler anderson and an alex keduell, guys who looked lost their first year. i think paddon has the tools to get by. and who knows, the 'pen might be his best spot eventually. his numbers last year were not bad. over 50 innings, under 20 earned? perhaps we're spoiled by our starters, 'cause that's not awful. that's jeff gold-ish. serviceable.

that's really too bad about heineman. i know we have a lot of outfielders, but heineman can be a difference-maker.

That's the development side to it every year. Replacing graduated/drafted players with new talent and see who has taken a step forward from the previous season. Some guys develop, some don't.

As to Nogosek and Paddon, the jury is out till they show where they're at. If they've improved and moved to next level, I think we'll be really good this year. If they struggle, then we'll be like last year (Competitive, one really good starter, scrambling all year to find other starters).

I'm encouraged at this point to say the least, but till they start playing games I have no idea, nor does anyone else. I like how our schedule plays out I will say that. Almost all the expected quality teams on schedule (minus UCSB) will be at PK. Not the worlds toughest OOC schedule, but I was pleasantly surprised to see St Johns ranked high.

looks like a decent schedule to let our new staff get their feet wet and lean early on the bats.

4 @ hawaii (22-31 in 2014)
4 new mexico state (23-31)
3 @ uc-santa barbara (34-17)
3 st. john's (35-20)
3 @ cal (26-27)
3 arizona state (33-24)
3 @ arizona (22-33)
3 michigan state (31-26)

that takes us through the first week of april.

i'm not knocking any of these teams -- far from it -- just saying that we don't have a vanderbilt or fullerton series scheduled for this year. uc-santa barbara and st. john's are both good, let's not forget that cal took the series from us last year, asu is going to contend for the conference title.

but it's a pretty good schedule for our new kids to start learning the ropes. getting arizona state here in march is huge. the sun devils have looked pretty ineffective in trips to the state when the weather is bad. santa barbara, st. john's, and michigan state could all do well enough in their conferences to be 'top 50' wins for us, but we *should* take all three series. i didn't include a few midweek games in the schedule above, but we play 17 OOC games prior to the cal series, and 25 of our first 34 are non-league.

st. louis named Canadian baseball network player of the year today. i'm hoping he can step right in and be our new Tyler Baumgartner (different position, of course -- going for the JC transfer connection there).

I think he'll be the DH.

oregontrack wrote:great stuff. love having someone connected to the program.

i'm comfortable with trying out nogosek on fridays, at least until irvin's pitch count is at the necessary level. his first start was against #1 oregon state and his second was against vanderbilt in a do or die; he left after 7 in the latter with a 2-1 lead. he doesn't seem like a kid who gets frightened by big stages. and paddon -- i mean, he looked like a freshman to me. some good outings, some bad ones. i wouldn't go so far as to say he doesn't strike me as a starter, he struck me last year as a freshman pressed into service because of mounting injuries. for every cole irvin or matt krook, who look ridiculously awesome from day one, there's a tyler anderson and an alex keduell, guys who looked lost their first year. i think paddon has the tools to get by. and who knows, the 'pen might be his best spot eventually. his numbers last year were not bad. over 50 innings, under 20 earned? perhaps we're spoiled by our starters, 'cause that's not awful. that's jeff gold-ish. serviceable.

that's really too bad about heineman. i know we have a lot of outfielders, but heineman can be a difference-maker.

What's going on with Heineman?

So who replaces Balta now in the lineup?

Cuddy

based on a few articles released the last few days, sounds like heineman is a full go and should be getting the bulk of the work in right and 1B.

Is Crook throwing yet?

i don't know where krook is at personally, or where/how our staff is choosing to handle rehab.

one can usually start throwing long toss somewhere around 5-6 months (if krook had his surgery in late april, he'd be at 9 months right now). at 7-8 months you can generally go at 1/2 to 3/4 speed, assuming you're using the proper mechanics. months 9-12 are when you can go back to game situations. so he's got to be throwing, just don't know where he's at or how we're treating it. even the slightest setback could lead them to shut his arm down completely.

osu's jace fry had his surgery in late june, and he returned near the end of the 2013 season in relief. he wasn't really himself and only pitched about 10 innings. krook had his surgery two months earlier; if they follow the same timetable, we should have him back before april, but who knows how effective he'll be. might have to take whatever we can get and hope for a huge (and final) 2016 season instead. fry's first full year back won him pac 12 pitcher of the year...