Re-Rating Oregon's '21 Commitments

[StevensTechU]

I started following recruiting back in 2012, and started watching game film around 2014 as I became more interested in recruits. Specifically, I wanted to see if I could get better at predicting college success of quarterback recruits than sites like Rivals, Scout, 247Sports and ESPN, and to some degree, I think I eventually got there. But I'm going to open up by saying that you shouldn't really care about my opinion set forth here, because at the end of the day, I'm just a fan who occasionally talks to folks in the support staff (recruiting, GAs, etc.) at UofO.

So all that said, I wanted to take my stab at re-rating Oregon's recruits who have currently committed to see if their tape lines up with their ranking in my eyes. So here they are:

Troy Franklin (247 composite: .9836m STU: .95)
Simply put, Franklin has all of the tools. Fast, smooth, good hands. I have found that rating sites almost systematically overrate the impact WRs will have on the college game, and so my rating, while very high, is lower than 247.

Ty Thompson (247c: .9644, STU: .91)
Physical tools, physical tools, physical tools. Thompson's arm strength and mobility give him the ability to make every throw. But as fans, we know being big and strong isn't what makes a great college QB. I'm uncertain about how cerebral Thompson is, as his tape shows him making only a single read over and over again. I'm looking forward to seeing his senior tape, but for now I think he has tons of upside but isn't a slam dunk.

Bram Walden (247c: .9615, STU: .94)
While not all dominant offensive tackles are 6'6+, Bram is 6'3-6'4, which makes me think he may end up a guard. His athleticism is perfect for tackle, though, and at guard he's going to have pack on weight and become a bull. He's a great prospect, and if he were just a little taller, I'd have him as at least a .96.

Keith Brown (247c: .9542, STU: .85)
When I watch Keith's tape, I see Kiko Alonso athleticism without Kiko Alonso instincts. Keith should dominate at the Oregon 5A level, but was 2nd team all-state as a junior. We'll see how it goes in 2020, but from what I've seen, he might end up getting buried on the depth chart in college.

Jaylin Davies (247c: .9418, STU: .93)
Rock solid, and I am tempted to say Oregon's most important recruit. Davies doesn't have the high-end athleticism of some other prospects, but he's going to be as close to college-ready out of the gate as anyone due to his instincts and advanced knowledge of the game. Running step for step with the speed of Pac-12 WRs might be his biggest challenge.

Kyron Ware-Hudson (247c: .9410, STU: .90)
The delta between my rating and 247 again comes mostly as a result of recruiting sites consistently overrating wide receivers. I project Kyron as being a solid #2 or #3 receiver, and as such, don't know that .9410 is appropriate. Strong, physical receiver who runs very solid routes. Going to take a lot to pry the ball away from KWH.

Isaiah Brevard (247c: .9383, STU: .86)
As mentioned in another thread, Brevard is almost like an undersized tight end. His size is going to help him win jump balls, but his speed and athleticism leave something to be desired. I don't see Pca-12 CBs or safeties struggling to cover him, so hopefully he's comfortable going over the middle and using his big frame to shield defenders off the ball. My rating is based on not envisioning Brevard ever making an all-conference team.

Moliki Matavao (247c: .9345, STU: .88)
Man... All the size and athleticism you could ever want from a tight end. On the flip side, he might have the hands of Ryan Bay. I think he'll almost certainly play at Oregon, but his impact is going to depend on whether he continues to basket-catch balls or develops reliable hands to be a 3rd down target.

Seven McGee (247c: .9247, STU: .93)
The huge disclaimer is that nobody has seen Seven play football in a few years now. Who knows if he's getting bigger and stronger or slower and more out of shape. But basing entirely on his sophomore tape, Seven can do it all. If he can bulk up and get to 190-200 pounds, he could be an all-conference running back. If he stays slim, he could be a solid receiver (not quite the ceiling he'd have as a running back, but not bad). Best comp I can come up with half Byron Marshall, half DAT. His college success may depend simply on how the offense suits his skillset.

Jonah Miller (247c: .9046, STU: .88)
Jonah is a jumbo offensive guard, standing 6'7. I don't think he's fleet of foot enough to move out to tackle consistently, but he's a mauler who can lock up and push guys around.

Terrance Ferguson (247c: .9013, STU: .93)
While perhaps not quite possessing the receiver skills that Spencer Webb or Jake Breeland have, Ferguson isn't far off. I would actually put him right in line with pros Evan Baylis and Johnny Mundt, guys who can catch and block with equal skill. As a coach, I would take a Ferguson-type over and over again.

Jackson Light (247c: .8985, STU: .90)
At 6'2, Jackson isn't as big of a guy as most of the offensive linemen we've had recently. Less height means smaller frame. But that said, Jackson is quite athletic and seems to take the weight room very seriously, increasing the chances that he makes the most of whats' god-given. I think he'll make for a very good pulling center or guard.

Jadarrius Perkins (247c: .8789, STU: .85)
Jadarrius' highlights reveal a player who is still developing his football skills. He's often slow to react, reaches and grabs. His athletic profile is fantastic - long, strong, and fast. My hangup is that description also fits recent JUCO CB for the Ducks, Haki Woods. Perkins has the athleticism to be a star, but Rod Chance has his work cut out for him to get him there.

Terrell Tilmon (247c: .8668, STU: .86)
Tilmon is a bit of a tweener at 6'4, 200 pounds (listed at 210, but I don't buy it based on photos). Tweeners are the hardest to project. Will he beef up enough to play WDE without losing speed? Will he have to move into an OLB role, which requires much more analyzing and thinking? Terrodney Prevot, also from TX, comes to mind as a player in a similar situation.

Darren Barkins (247c: .8627, STU: .87)
6'1 with receiver skills, Barkins could play on either side of the ball. Barkins looks like he has all the athleticism necessary to play CB at the Pac-12 level, and seems heady on the field. That said, I would wager that it will take him a little bit of time to get to the level of a player like Davies. So I don't expect Barkins to contribute much early on, but I would bet we get 2 really solid years out of him before all is said and done.

Brandon Buckner (247c: .8547, STU: .88)
When I look at Buckner, I think 'What would I rate Michael Clay in hindsight' and start from there. A guy who might not have NFL measurables (unless he beefs up and becomes a nasty lineman), but is a very savvy player. I'd give Clay a .91, so hedging a little bit, I still think higher of Buckner than the recruiting sites.

Some up, some down. I feel differently from recruiting sites about some individuals, but not terribly different on the class as a whole.

[Phalanx]

Great post, thanks for the analysis. The knock on Cristobal's recruiting is that he chases stars and the guys he gets are often overrated (as opposed to Chip and Helfrich's guys who were most often underrated). Looks like your observation might agree with that in general. Still, I see the advantage of pulling in highly-rated guys when you are trying to get the Wrights, Sewells and Flowes of the world. Hopefully, these guys can play up to their rankings. I am especially hopeful about Ty Thompson, who just seems like a star in the making.

I'm curious: Have you looked at tape from Worthy, and if so, how would you have rated him?

[StevensTechU]

I would have Worthy ranked near what Franklin is rated. And I know you didn't ask, but since Dont'e Thornton is the other receiver we appear to be targeting, I'll say in advance that I think he's overrated. He's tall, runs good routes, and has good speed, but I don't see much skill in adjusting to the ball or great hands. I'd have him as maybe a .88-.90, and I fear that because he has such high expectations, he's going to get the 'bust' label.

[Tray Dub]

STU, if you're up for it I'd love to read your thoughts on how you watch tape and what you've learned about it over the years you've been doing it. I've been watching football since I was a little kid, but I still feel like I don't know quite what to watch for when I'm evaluating the potential of younger players, other than just do they look big/fast and do they make plays. Would be enlightening to hear about your approach.

[OG Duck]

247 team rankings

2014: Alabama, LSU, Ohio St, FSU
2015: Alabama, USC, FSU, Tenn, LSU
2016: Alabama, LSU, FSU, Ohio St, Ole Miss
2017: Alabama, Ohio St, Georgia, Michigan
2018: Georgia, Ohio St, Texas, USC, Alabama
2019: Alabama, Georgia, Texas, TAM, LSU


CFP field

2016: Clemson, Alabama, Mich St, Okla
2017: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Wash
2018: Clemson, Okla, Georgia, Alabama
2019: Alabama, Clemson, ND, Okla
2020: LSU, Ohio St, Clemson, Okla

Using CFP appearance as a rough measure of success, there does appear to be some correlation between recruiting for star rating and success in the field. That said, if a team has bad coaching *cough Texas*, recruiting doesn't even matter. If I were Cristobal, I would stay the course and keep chasing the 4/5 star recruits at the expense of offering potential diamonds in the rough.

[StevensTechU]

STU, if you're up for it I'd love to read your thoughts on how you watch tape and what you've learned about it over the years you've been doing it. I've been watching football since I was a little kid, but I still feel like I don't know quite what to watch for when I'm evaluating the potential of younger players, other than just do they look big/fast and do they make plays. Would be enlightening to hear about your approach.

Hey, sorry about not responding previously. The way I've gone about learning is/was to use hindsight as an advantage. I went back and looked at a lot of high school tape of players who panned out and who didn't, and tried to identify patterns. I started by questioning everything -- do height, weight, arm strength, completion percentage, all-state team, 100m time, etc. matter? Are there things you can see on film that you can't measure (how quickly does a linebacker or safety take to react to a play, how 'smooth' is a receiver or tight end, how athletic does a lineman look, does throwing motion matter at all) that matter? Then when dissecting the film, I ask questions to consciously consider what I am seeing -- am I seeing a quarterback make a bunch of great throws, but every single one is over the middle? Is the linebacker showing only his ability to get after a quarterback but nothing in coverage or reading a running back? And then lastly, what value are performances in camp settings for different positions?

Because Barkins was one of the last players I looked at, I'll use him as an example. So from my past years of doing this, I did find a correlation between cornerback and wide receivers speed and their college success, as you'd expect, enough to say "don't take a player who can't run AT LEAST this fast" as well as "if they're beyond THAT FAST, then you're looking at a really high potential prospect." So I looked up Barkins' 100m time, and as a freshman he ran an 11.8 100m. That's pretty terrific for a freshman, and while it doesn't tell us how fast he is today, it makes his self-proclaimed 4.5 40 actually believable. Before finishing on that facet alone, as I watch his tape, I make note of how fast he is relative to the other players on the field, and suffice to say it checks out. Also relative to other players, I'm looking at size. In Barkins' case, he claims 6'1, and he clearly seems tall compared to DBs he's facing and even WRs he's tackling, so I have no reason to doubt his height. So we know we have a 6'1 CB with approx. 4.5 speed. Onto skill set, I want to see how he moves in coverage, how quickly he closes on receivers, whether he's playing the man or the ball, how he reacts when it's a running play, and some other things, and I'm mentally comparing those abilities to all the cornerbacks I've seen before who did and didn't pan out. His highlights show a lot of run support, so that's good, but you can't say he's on Thomas Graham's level of getting to RBs behind the line or snuffing out screens before the ball ever arrives, but he's still solid. As I watch him move in coverage, I see huge buffers given to receivers that lead to easy catches. Elijah Molden gave up something like 2 catches his entire senior year at West Linn, so frankly I don't like to see many catches, let alone easy ones, given up by future D1 CBs at the high school level. Frankly, many elite prospects simply make it look almost effortless compared to everyone else on the field at the high school level, but often this separation doesn't emerge until they're seniors. So Barkins' huge cushions signal to me that he's still developing his cover skills, and is sort of guessing at what the route may be and just trying to not get burned. That said, his hips seem fairly fluid, and so it might be a problem more with experience and knowledge than with raw ability. If that's the case, it's going to take him some time to build his skills and his confidence, but his athletic ceiling isn't going to hold him back.

If I really want to scrutinize a player, as I generally do with quarterbacks and used to do with linebackers when we were trotting out guys like Derrick Malone and Rodney Hardrick, I will pull up teammate highlights and opposing player highlights to see what the prospect looks like on plays where they don't make the play. You actually learn a lot about another intangible - effort - in those videos. But you'll see things like throwing into double coverage, getting happy feet, staring down a receiver, running themselves out of the play, getting juked, allowing easy catches, etc. in them, and it's really helpful in evaluation.

At the end of the day, you're assessing whether players have the athletic ability and football skill to make plays at the D1 level. Sometimes they have more of one than the other and so you might end up with a freak athlete getting the same rating as someone with zero pro prospects. On that note, I also want to point out that I rate based on forecasted college success, not on their ability to make an NFL roster. I would rate Pat White, Jeremiah Masoli and Vernon Adams much higher than Brett Hundley or Jacob Eason, because I ultimately care more about how they'll contribute to college wins than anything else, and that sometimes makes it so I see prospects differently than recruiting agencies who are crazy about things like "NFL frame and arm strength."

But there you go. That's my general process. What I look for specifically changes by position, naturally, but rooting yourself in what actually matters based on players who have already come and gone and what they looked like as high school players, then looking for those traits in the next wave of prospects is how I would suggest it if you want to put in the time. Basically the same you'd do any forecasting, just with much less decipherable data.

[Tray Dub]

Thanks STU, very interesting read for me. I appreciate you taking the time.

Just an idea, if you ever wrote up a post on what you've learned to look for in each position, I think we'd learn a lot from it.

[UofDuck]

Hey Stu, thanks and sorry to pile questions on, but did you ever do something like this for the 2020 class? I'd be very curious where you had each of them.

[StevensTechU]

Hey Stu, thanks and sorry to pile questions on, but did you ever do something like this for the 2020 class? I'd be very curious where you had each of them.

Not all in one place, but I respond to most commitment posts with a soft or strong opinion. If I can find the time, I'll try to go back.

[RanDux]

You are a tough grader, STU! You would make a hard teacher!

[StevensTechU]

I'm about to do this again but for the '22 class, so I wanted to look back and see how I did for last year's class, especially compared to the industry (247 composite).

Troy Franklin (.95 vs .9836) - Troy looks like everything I expected. I rate WRs lower than the industry because they typically don't have enormous impacts in the college game, even when very good. It's early, but I think I got this one right, but you could argue the industry did, too.

Ty Thompson (.91 vs. .9644) - This was based on film before his senior year, and I think I would have lowered my rating to .89 or so after this senior year. I feel good that I had this better than the industry, but it's still very early.

Bram Walden (.94 vs. .9615) - I still really like Walden's athleticism, and he was always going to physically develop before getting on the field at this level. Too early to tell but the industry and I had comparable ratings.

Keith Brown (.85 vs. .9542) - He's seen the field early due to injuries. If he's a starter or getting a lot of snaps and making plays next year, the industry will have had it more right. If it takes until his junior/senior year before he's a regular contributor, I think I had it more right. Having him rated up near what Sewell was rated was ridiculous, though.

Jaylin Davies (.93 vs. .9418) - This might end up being my biggest miss. I should've given more credence to some camp film I saw of him, and lowered his rating a bit, I think. Still early. My rating was on par with the industry.

Kyron Ware-Hudson (.90 vs. .9410) - I think I will end up being 'more right' than the industry here, but I haven't followed things at USC too terribly close.

Isaiah Brevard (.86 vs. .9383) - Too early to tell.

Moliki Matavao (.88 vs. .9345) - Matavao has so far been exactly what I thought he would be. He's gotten on the field early due to injuries and shown himself to be a solid blocker and less than fluid receiver. Appropriate rating maybe was in the middle of me and the industry.

Seven McGee (.93 vs. .9247) - We've seen flashes, but too early to say for sure. I was on par with the industry.

Jonah Miller (.88 vs. .9046) - He's dealt with some health issues early and so no one can really say. I was slightly lower on Miller than the industry, but time will tell.

Terrance Ferguson (.93 vs. .9013) - I definitely got this right from the perspective that I had him higher than Matavao (industry was the opposite), and that he should've just generally been rated higher. He's already really good and will only get better.

Jackson Light (.90 vs. .8985) - My knock was I thought he was a smaller guy than he apparently is. He's been a bull. Though I had him as a 4-star, the industry and I both had him too low

Jadarrius Perkins (.85 vs. .8789) - No idea. I don't even know if he's enrolled at a school right now.

Terrell Tilmon (.86 vs. .8668) - Too early to say, but early indication makes me think I had this right. I had Buckner higher than Tilmon, and Buckner has seen more meaningful snaps this year so I think I beat the industry here.

Darren Barkins (.87 vs. .8627) - I agreed with the industry here. Barkins is a physical specimen but a project.

Brandon Buckner (.88 vs. .8547) - I definitely beat the industry here. He has physical limitations, but a low 3-star (industry composite) doesn't see the field on important downs early in his true freshman season.

Others:
Worthy - I said he's comparable to Franklin, aka- one of the truly elite WRs in the class. He's been the best or second best player for Texas in his true freshman season, so I think I got that one right. Hell, if anything, I should have rated him higher.
Thornton (.88-.90 vs. .9719) - It's too early to tell. He's looked solid, but I think I was right in that Franklin and Worthy were a cut above (industry had Thornton higher than Worthy).
Jaxson Dart - I was pretty outspoken that I liked him better than Thompson, even when Dart was a 3-star virtual unknown. By the end of his senior year, they were comparably rated, but in any case I think I got that more right and right much faster than the industry.

Overall, there's a lot of football left, but I think I did pretty well, and a bit better than the industry when we differed in opinion.

[lukeyrid13]

Buckner should probably be higher. He made some plays at Ohio St as a low 3 star true freshman.

Definitely way too early to say for Ty. I think Troy looks great....but his comps were Marqise Lee, which is just really unattainable

[GrantDuck]

Good call on T-Ferg. Kid is a stud!

Couple guys not on the list like Cardwell(based on the time you made the rankings) who is gonna be an absolute stud and was underrated by the industry. Not to mention another late offer in Bassa.

Hoping for the best with Ty Thompson.

[alxtw]

Its quite difficult to look back and assess the play of WRs and TEs, aside from their blocking. If we had a good passing QB we could get a more accurate analysis if they lived up to their ratings or are under performing.

[GoDucksTroll]

Way too early to judge how accurate these ratings were for most of our freshmen. It’s a progress report, and even then if Troy Franklin and Xavier Worthy swapped teams I wouldn’t be surprised if their stats were also swapped. Who has even played enough snaps to qualify? Jackson Powers-Johnson, Ferguson, Jeff Bassa, Byron Cardwell, Troy Franklin, Mo Matavao, Keith Brown, Seven? Some of those are iffy, as anything involving Anthony Brown throwing the ball should be graded on a curve.