Does Draft Position Help/Hinder You In the 1st Season?
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:55 pm
If you draft high (1st round top picks) do you have an advantage coming into the 1st season? Conversely, if you draft low, are you at a disadvantage?
Does a star player greatly enhance your chances of succeeding (playoff position) in your first season? Or will depth be a better indicator?
I ignored the Lakers/Nets for trading all their players, Rockets for trading their top picks and Trailblazers for making multiple trades up in the draft and for players as they would skew the results.
Note: I will update the results at the end of regular season
Numbers are calculated as of Day 70.
Teams with a pick in the top 15 have an average positioning of 6.8 (If you remove the Lakers & Rockets due to them trading players/picks and skewing results, the number drops to 5.8)
Teams with a pick in the bottom 14 have an average positioning of 8.7. (If you remove the Trailblazers & Nets due to them trading players/picks and skewing results, the number drops to 8.6)
Thats a difference of 2 positions which might not seem like alot but a couple of games determines whether you get home court or not.
When factoring in the top 5 picks, you get an average of 4.8 while the bottom 5 is 9.8. With a difference of 5, picking at the bottom clearly puts your team at a disadvantage.
Only the Pistons (3rd overall pick) sit outside the playoffs of the top five picks while the Raptors (28th pick) and Timberwolves (29th pick) are the only teams in the playoffs in the bottom five.
With the numbers above, the teams performing above their expected position are the Suns (Picked 13th and sit 2nd in the West) and Raptors (Picked 28th and sit 4th in the East). The teams who are disappointing per expected position are the Pistons (Picks 3rd and sit 13th in the East) and the Kings (Picked 8th and sit 9th in the West)
In conclusion, I think having a higher draft pick in a creation draft puts your team in a better position for year 1 and star players make the difference over depth.
Does a star player greatly enhance your chances of succeeding (playoff position) in your first season? Or will depth be a better indicator?
I ignored the Lakers/Nets for trading all their players, Rockets for trading their top picks and Trailblazers for making multiple trades up in the draft and for players as they would skew the results.
Note: I will update the results at the end of regular season
Numbers are calculated as of Day 70.
Teams with a pick in the top 15 have an average positioning of 6.8 (If you remove the Lakers & Rockets due to them trading players/picks and skewing results, the number drops to 5.8)
Teams with a pick in the bottom 14 have an average positioning of 8.7. (If you remove the Trailblazers & Nets due to them trading players/picks and skewing results, the number drops to 8.6)
Thats a difference of 2 positions which might not seem like alot but a couple of games determines whether you get home court or not.
When factoring in the top 5 picks, you get an average of 4.8 while the bottom 5 is 9.8. With a difference of 5, picking at the bottom clearly puts your team at a disadvantage.
Only the Pistons (3rd overall pick) sit outside the playoffs of the top five picks while the Raptors (28th pick) and Timberwolves (29th pick) are the only teams in the playoffs in the bottom five.
With the numbers above, the teams performing above their expected position are the Suns (Picked 13th and sit 2nd in the West) and Raptors (Picked 28th and sit 4th in the East). The teams who are disappointing per expected position are the Pistons (Picks 3rd and sit 13th in the East) and the Kings (Picked 8th and sit 9th in the West)
In conclusion, I think having a higher draft pick in a creation draft puts your team in a better position for year 1 and star players make the difference over depth.