Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

Posted: **Sat Nov 22, 2025 8:32 pm**

I hadn't thought of this idea until now, and it's one I'm not particularly fond of...

If we manage to beat Washington, we'll finish with a 11-1 record, but most people are projecting us to play a home playoff game if that happens, and personally that's the situation I hope for, but there's something that could screw those plans, and that is the Ohio State vs. Michigan game, if Ryan Day were to choke against the Wolverines once again combined with an Oregon win, we'll play against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Personally I'd prefer for both us and Ohio State to win their last games of the season, so we'll take a rest and either Ohio State or Indiana get exposed in that extra game, but if we make it to Indy, it'll be quite awful if we once again lose to the Hoosiers, albeit I'd imagine it could be something similar to the 2014 team, which lost a home game only to get revenge on the team that beat them during the regular season.

I still prefer the home playoff game...

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 8:44 am**

Thomallister1291 wrote: Sat Nov 22, 2025 8:32 pm I hadn't thought of this idea until now, and it's one I'm not particularly fond of...

If we manage to beat Washington, we'll finish with a 11-1 record, but most people are projecting us to play a home playoff game if that happens, and personally that's the situation I hope for, but there's something that could screw those plans, and that is the Ohio State vs. Michigan game, if Ryan Day were to choke against the Wolverines once again combined with an Oregon win, we'll play against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Personally I'd prefer for both us and Ohio State to win their last games of the season, so we'll take a rest and either Ohio State or Indiana get exposed in that extra game, but if we make it to Indy, it'll be quite awful if we once again lose to the Hoosiers, albeit I'd imagine it could be something similar to the 2014 team, which lost a home game only to get revenge on the team that beat them during the regular season.

I still prefer the home playoff game...

I was just looking at this scenario. It would put us an another "must win" game in order to get to the CFP. I think we could win a rematch vs Indiana, as long as we get some of our best players back for that game. On the other hand, a second loss could knock us out of the CFP. If it were a very close loss we might still get in, but it's unlikely.

I can't stand Ohio State, but I sure hope they beat Michigan next week.

I'd like to avoid the extra game, give our guys time to heal so we can be at full strength going into the playoffs, etc.

Of course, none of this matters if we don't beat UW first!!!

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 9:24 am**

Maybe I’m a bad duck fan but I don’t want Oregon to make the B1G. I think the ideal scenario for Oregon is to beat down the Huskies, get a 5 or 6 seed, host a team like Virginia or North Texas after 3 weeks of rest and healing up, and then only has a week and a half off before the bowl game so they’re still in a rhythm.

A team I think is in a bad spot is Georgia, they might get a top 4 seed and miss the SEC champ game, meaning they’ll have like a 35 day break before their playoff game.

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Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 9:37 am**

If Oregon beats washington, they finish the regular season with 1 loss and won't be knocked out of that playoff for any reason. SMU losing in their championship last year set the precedent.

There's a scenario alive that Oregon could play in the conference championship and the first round (very little off time), but also a scenario where we avoid the conference championship and receive a first round bye (super long time off).

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 10:40 am**

We aren’t even in a must win situation going to UW anymore. Yea ESECpn will try and spin it, but I believe we are in regardless, just like the guys at CBS said after our game yesterday. That said, no way is anyone not putting us in if we win at UW but lose a BIG tile game. That’s crazy talk

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:14 pm**

buckmarkduck wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 10:40 am We aren’t even in a must win situation going to UW anymore. Yea ESECpn will try and spin it, but I believe we are in regardless, just like the guys at CBS said after our game yesterday. That said, no way is anyone not putting us in if we win at UW but lose a BIG tile game. That’s crazy talk

If Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M or Georgia win out, or one of Texas A&M/Georgia lose in the SEC CCG, that would likely take up 4 of the 10 CFP spots. If Georgia wins they're both definitely in.

Ohio State and Indiana are both in no matter what. Notre Dame is in unless they lose their last game. Mississippi is in if they win Friday. Oklahoma, even with 2 losses, has beaten 5 ranked teams this year and would definitely be in if they beat LSU this weekend.

That leaves ONE spot remaining. If Oregon and Texas Tech win, we're both in. However, if BYU avenges their only loss vs Texas Tech, they'd be an automatic qualifier. The question then would be as follows:

#1. Either Oregon or Texas Tech get left out.

#2. Both of the above qualify and the ACC champ doesn't get in, but they're supposed to be in automatically.

#3. Another possibility is that Georgia makes the SEC CCG and loses to Texas A&M. That would give them 2 losses and could possibly put them behind BYU.

When the computers gave Oregon a 97% chance to make the playoff that left a 3% chance of the unthinkable happening. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that they still get in.

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:45 pm**

SuperDuck wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:14 pm
buckmarkduck wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 10:40 am We aren’t even in a must win situation going to UW anymore. Yea ESECpn will try and spin it, but I believe we are in regardless, just like the guys at CBS said after our game yesterday. That said, no way is anyone not putting us in if we win at UW but lose a BIG tile game. That’s crazy talk
If Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M or Georgia win out, or one of Texas A&M/Georgia lose in the SEC CCG, that would likely take up 4 of the 10 CFP spots. If Georgia wins they're both definitely in.

Ohio State and Indiana are both in no matter what. Notre Dame is in unless they lose their last game. Mississippi is in if they win Friday. Oklahoma, even with 2 losses, has beaten 5 ranked teams this year and would definitely be in if they beat LSU this weekend.

That leaves ONE spot remaining. If Oregon and Texas Tech win, we're both in. However, if BYU avenges their only loss vs Texas Tech, they'd be an automatic qualifier. The question then would be as follows:

#1. Either Oregon or Texas Tech get left out.

#2. Both of the above qualify and the ACC champ doesn't get in, but they're supposed to be in automatically.

#3. Another possibility is that Georgia makes the SEC CCG and loses to Texas A&M. That would give them 2 losses and could possibly put them behind BYU.

When the computers gave Oregon a 97% chance to make the playoff that left a 3% chance of the unthinkable happening. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that they still get in.

The committee had mentioned before that they won't punish a team for losing a conference championship game. Assuming that holds true, look at the current playoff rankings. The top 10 (regardless of championship games) plus the ACC champ and and the top G5 team will be in. The only way I see it playing out different is if BYU wins the Big12 championship and pulls off the auto bid. In that case, either Notre Dame, Utah, or the lowest ranked SEC team in the top 12 will be left out.

The likely outcome is Notre Dame and Utah are out. Looking at Notre Dame's schedule, besides USC, their wins aren't overly impressive. Pitt is not an impressive win, regardless of their record. As for the SEC, the committee wouldn't dare leave them out if the other option is Utah.

If Oregon handles business and beats Washington, they're in. Lose to Washington, then we might take utah's position

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:52 pm**

squintsdd wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:45 pm
SuperDuck wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:14 pm
buckmarkduck wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 10:40 am We aren’t even in a must win situation going to UW anymore. Yea ESECpn will try and spin it, but I believe we are in regardless, just like the guys at CBS said after our game yesterday. That said, no way is anyone not putting us in if we win at UW but lose a BIG tile game. That’s crazy talk
If Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M or Georgia win out, or one of Texas A&M/Georgia lose in the SEC CCG, that would likely take up 4 of the 10 CFP spots. If Georgia wins they're both definitely in.

Ohio State and Indiana are both in no matter what. Notre Dame is in unless they lose their last game. Mississippi is in if they win Friday. Oklahoma, even with 2 losses, has beaten 5 ranked teams this year and would definitely be in if they beat LSU this weekend.

That leaves ONE spot remaining. If Oregon and Texas Tech win, we're both in. However, if BYU avenges their only loss vs Texas Tech, they'd be an automatic qualifier. The question then would be as follows:

#1. Either Oregon or Texas Tech get left out.

#2. Both of the above qualify and the ACC champ doesn't get in, but they're supposed to be in automatically.

#3. Another possibility is that Georgia makes the SEC CCG and loses to Texas A&M. That would give them 2 losses and could possibly put them behind BYU.

When the computers gave Oregon a 97% chance to make the playoff that left a 3% chance of the unthinkable happening. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that they still get in.
The committee had mentioned before that they won't punish a team for losing a conference championship game. Assuming that holds true, look at the current playoff rankings. The top 10 (regardless of championship games) plus the ACC champ and and the top G5 team will be in. The only way I see it playing out different is if BYU wins the Big12 championship and pulls off the auto bid. In that case, either Notre Dame, Utah, or the lowest ranked SEC team in the top 12 will be left out.

The likely outcome is Notre Dame and Utah are out. Looking at Notre Dame's schedule, besides USC, their wins aren't overly impressive. Pitt is not an impressive win, regardless of their record. As for the SEC, the committee wouldn't dare leave them out if the other option is Utah.

If Oregon handles business and beats Washington, they're in. Lose to Washington, then we might take utah's position

The following won't happen because the CFP committee tilts the scales in favor of larger brands and ratings, but the rule is the five highest ranked conference champions. If SMU wins the ACC, it's theoretically possible that Ohio State/Indiana, Georgia/A&M, BYU/Texas Tech, North Texas/Tulane and James Madison could all be ranked ahead of them. In the AP poll, James Madison is #20, N Texas is #21, Tulane #22, and SMU #25.

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 2:03 pm**

StevensTechU wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:52 pm
squintsdd wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:45 pm
SuperDuck wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 1:14 pm
buckmarkduck wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 10:40 am We aren’t even in a must win situation going to UW anymore. Yea ESECpn will try and spin it, but I believe we are in regardless, just like the guys at CBS said after our game yesterday. That said, no way is anyone not putting us in if we win at UW but lose a BIG tile game. That’s crazy talk
If Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M or Georgia win out, or one of Texas A&M/Georgia lose in the SEC CCG, that would likely take up 4 of the 10 CFP spots. If Georgia wins they're both definitely in.

Ohio State and Indiana are both in no matter what. Notre Dame is in unless they lose their last game. Mississippi is in if they win Friday. Oklahoma, even with 2 losses, has beaten 5 ranked teams this year and would definitely be in if they beat LSU this weekend.

That leaves ONE spot remaining. If Oregon and Texas Tech win, we're both in. However, if BYU avenges their only loss vs Texas Tech, they'd be an automatic qualifier. The question then would be as follows:

#1. Either Oregon or Texas Tech get left out.

#2. Both of the above qualify and the ACC champ doesn't get in, but they're supposed to be in automatically.

#3. Another possibility is that Georgia makes the SEC CCG and loses to Texas A&M. That would give them 2 losses and could possibly put them behind BYU.

When the computers gave Oregon a 97% chance to make the playoff that left a 3% chance of the unthinkable happening. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that they still get in.
The committee had mentioned before that they won't punish a team for losing a conference championship game. Assuming that holds true, look at the current playoff rankings. The top 10 (regardless of championship games) plus the ACC champ and and the top G5 team will be in. The only way I see it playing out different is if BYU wins the Big12 championship and pulls off the auto bid. In that case, either Notre Dame, Utah, or the lowest ranked SEC team in the top 12 will be left out.

The likely outcome is Notre Dame and Utah are out. Looking at Notre Dame's schedule, besides USC, their wins aren't overly impressive. Pitt is not an impressive win, regardless of their record. As for the SEC, the committee wouldn't dare leave them out if the other option is Utah.

If Oregon handles business and beats Washington, they're in. Lose to Washington, then we might take utah's position
The following won't happen because the CFP committee tilts the scales in favor of larger brands and ratings, but the rule is the five highest ranked conference champions. If SMU wins the ACC, it's theoretically possible that Ohio State/Indiana, Georgia/A&M, BYU/Texas Tech, North Texas/Tulane and James Madison could all be ranked ahead of them. In the AP poll, James Madison is #20, N Texas is #21, Tulane #22, and SMU #25.

Honestly, I'd be okay with leaving the ACC out. The ACC is garbage. The best team is Miami, not only are they one of the most unpredictable teams in the country, they won't be qualifying in their conference championship game. They're essentially eliminated from the playoffs for that reason alone.

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 2:49 pm**

The ACC gets even battier the more you dig into it. If Duke beats Wake and Cal at home upsets SMU, then Duke would play Virginia in the conference championship. If Duke were to win the ACC, then we're definitely talking about two G6 teams making the playoff. If that happens, by next year the format will change to guarantee major conferences their spots because of how pissy they'll be.

Posted: **Sun Nov 23, 2025 3:07 pm**

StevensTechU wrote: Sun Nov 23, 2025 2:49 pm The ACC gets even battier the more you dig into it. If Duke beats Wake and Cal at home upsets SMU, then Duke would play Virginia in the conference championship. If Duke were to win the ACC, then we're definitely talking about two G6 teams making the playoff. If that happens, by next year the format will change to guarantee major conferences their spots because of how pissy they'll be.

Geez that'll get ugly. I hope they don't go beyond 12 teams. If they want to make a fix, then limit each conference to only 4 teams in the playoffs and force Notre Dame to join a conference.

I'm not a huge fan of auto bids for the conference champions, but it's not much different than the nfl with division chaps getting auto bids. Having auto bids for conference champs of the P4 conferences would eliminate the scenario you mention.

Posted: **Tue Nov 25, 2025 11:54 am**

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Posted: **Tue Nov 25, 2025 12:50 pm**

So basically only way we make it is if we beat Washington and if Michigan beats Ohio State.

Posted: **Tue Nov 25, 2025 1:07 pm**

UOducksTK1 wrote: Tue Nov 25, 2025 12:50 pm So basically only way we make it is if we beat Washington and if Michigan beats Ohio State.

Yes, and in that scenario if Indiana loses we'd play Michigan

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