What will the Ducks vs Broncos Final Score be?

[UofDuck]

According to the BSU faithful, the Broncos purposefully give up points in the first quarter. Oodles of points. THEN, the defense makes perfect adjustments. For the next two quarters, it's a "shut down" defense. So in summary you are totally wrong: we weren't moving the ball, we were giving away our game plan, oh no!

That is absolutly untrue. Boise is known for the exact opposite. In fact the blogs have been claiming that Petersen needs to learn to step on the neck of teams they have leads on, because their habit is letting the other teams back into the game after they should have it in the bag. They jump on people fast and then hang on i.e. Nevada the last two years - big lead early and almost lost both games. Fiesta Bowl 2006 - big lead early and almost lost the game. Oregon last year - big lead early and almost let is slip away. Bowl game last year - took an early lead with TCU and DID lose the game.

[NCDucks09]

One of the keys to any game's outcome is Turnovers. It's strongly statistically correlated that Turnovers predict football game outcomes. Whichever team has the most, usually loses. That's nothing new. And it's a legitimate concern as this is the first game of the season, especially when it comes to special teams play where you have younger inexperienced guys playing. Fielding punts, young rb's and wr's ball security, and our qb play will be essential.

That being said, BSU isn't deep at DT and has experienced depth losses this Fall camp on the O-line as well. Their secondary is sick, so if Oregon can pass just enough to keep them honest in the box, without throwing INT's, then the Ducks will put up big rushing numbers and most likely score a lot of points. Our D is better in the middle and if Alliotti doesn't fix the Play Action D, I'll be screaming my head off, cuz that will make the game a shoot-out. I'm worried about our new starting corner, Glasper that's a matchup to watch as well.

Overall, Oregon has way more talent, solid experienced qb and rb play, defensive leadership, and a coach who is a perfectionist and will have this team ready to execute in 8 days. Oregon wins solidly and that's where I'll put my money!

DUCKS!!!

[echo31]

I'm worried about our new starting corner, Glasper that's a matchup to watch as well.

Don't forget that Thurmond III didn't play against BSU last year, so they may just underestimate him and throw the ball to his side of the field a few times early.

[UOducksTK1]

Are you serious wheaton? Come on now, we threw an interception in the red zone... When we weren't scoring we were throwing interceptions or fumbling footballs or missing FGs:

ORE 2nd H17 10:53 Kickoff V41 08:47 Fumble 6-42 2:06
ORE 2nd H20 08:05 Kickoff H37 05:52 Punt 5-17 2:13
ORE 2nd H39 01:53 Kickoff V17 00:35 Interception 7-44 1:18
ORE 3rd H41 15:00 Kickoff H41 13:12 Punt 3-0 1:48
ORE 3rd V19 12:57 Interception V00 12:24 * TOUCHDOWN 2-19 0:33
ORE 3rd H34 10:52 Kickoff H42 07:46 Punt 6-8 3:06
ORE 3rd H15 02:43 Kickoff H13 01:24 Interception 3--2 1:19
ORE 3rd V36 00:17 Kickoff V32 14:41 Missed FG 4-4 0:36

OUR ONLY TD IN THE 2ND AND 3RD QUARTERS STARTED BECAUSE OF AN INTERCEPTION. So in my eyes, BSU won because they limited turnovers and mistakes. Oregon lost because of mistakes.

Sure there can be more than that. But if Boise State had 4 turnovers last year and 2 missed FGs, I guarantee we would have come out on top.

BSU had mistakes. They had two turnovers which is pretty average for a game. Your argument is that they can win if they play mistake free football. In this case, they won with mistakes. So, it must have been something else.

That something else is, as I pointed out, losing our passing game early. Masoli didn't throw any interceptions. Harper threw two. Thomas threw one but only when we were playing from way behind and they knew we would pass.

Oregon lost because they were outcoached on defense and they didn't have a capable passer in for most of the game.

Because both of those scenarios are unlikely this time around, using how competitive BSU was last year as a basis for how competitive the game will be this year is not a compelling comparison, imo.

More indicative is how each team has improved since last year and how Oregon having a competent passer in the game will affect the outcome. I think that Oregon has some question marks regarding the offensive line. But, on the sum of things appears to have improved significantly at receiver, QB and linebacker. BSU doesn't appear to have improved at all. Rather, they lost their star RB, best two receivers and starters all over their D. They only have 5 seniors on the entire team. Oregon has 16. All BSU has improved is a blue field.

Oregon is going to knock the crap out of this team.

You are correct that Boise State didn't play a mistake free game. But let me rephrase my previous statement, whoever limits turnovers and plays MORE mistake free will win. Boise State had 2 turnovers last year. We had 5 turnovers, 2 missed FGs, and a missed PAT.

Convert that on to the smurf turf, and we get blown out this season.

Turnovers is why we struggled so terribly against Purdue. Justin Roper's interception in the red zone. Our muffed kick off, which gave Purdue great position. Thankfully we made some big plays (Blount's 80 yard run / Byrd's Punt ret TD). But against BSU in their home stadium, we won't be able to come back if we turn it over like we did against BSU and Purdue last season.

The talent factor is in no doubt our favor. But talent means nothing if you can't execute and limit big mistakes (turnovers).

[UOducksTK1]

One of the keys to any game's outcome is Turnovers. It's strongly statistically correlated that Turnovers predict football game outcomes. Whichever team has the most, usually loses. That's nothing new. And it's a legitimate concern as this is the first game of the season, especially when it comes to special teams play where you have younger inexperienced guys playing. Fielding punts, young rb's and wr's ball security, and our qb play will be essential.

There is no doubt turnovers is a key deciding factor to a game. But first game, on the road, on the smurf turf, against a team who beat us in Autzen is why I'm emphasizing the importance of turnovers.

If we were playing a mid Pac-10 school in Autzen and turn it over 5 times, I still have no doubt we could come up with the win. We turned it over 7 times against Indiana a while back, yet we nearly won the game.

[UOducksTK1]

Kinda ironic that we are arguing about turnovers and this gets posted today:
http://oregon.scout.com/2/892049.html

[wheaton4prez]

One of the keys to any game's outcome is Turnovers. It's strongly statistically correlated that Turnovers predict football game outcomes. Whichever team has the most, usually loses. That's nothing new. And it's a legitimate concern as this is the first game of the season, especially when it comes to special teams play where you have younger inexperienced guys playing. Fielding punts, young rb's and wr's ball security, and our qb play will be essential.

There is no doubt turnovers is a key deciding factor to a game. But first game, on the road, on the smurf turf, against a team who beat us in Autzen is why I'm emphasizing the importance of turnovers.

If we were playing a mid Pac-10 school in Autzen and turn it over 5 times, I still have no doubt we could come up with the win. We turned it over 7 times against Indiana a while back, yet we nearly won the game.

That's the thing. I don't put BSU as being any better than a mid Pac-10 school this year. I don't expect a rash of turn-overs. But, if there are, I think we have the firepower to over-come quite a bit of misfortune in this one. Us turning over the ball doesn't help BSU much if they go 3-and-out afterward.

[echo31]

It's not the turnovers that lose the game, it's the points off of turnovers that lose the game

[UOducksTK1]

One of the keys to any game's outcome is Turnovers. It's strongly statistically correlated that Turnovers predict football game outcomes. Whichever team has the most, usually loses. That's nothing new. And it's a legitimate concern as this is the first game of the season, especially when it comes to special teams play where you have younger inexperienced guys playing. Fielding punts, young rb's and wr's ball security, and our qb play will be essential.

There is no doubt turnovers is a key deciding factor to a game. But first game, on the road, on the smurf turf, against a team who beat us in Autzen is why I'm emphasizing the importance of turnovers.

If we were playing a mid Pac-10 school in Autzen and turn it over 5 times, I still have no doubt we could come up with the win. We turned it over 7 times against Indiana a while back, yet we nearly won the game.

That's the thing. I don't put BSU as being any better than a mid Pac-10 school this year. I don't expect a rash of turn-overs. But, if there are, I think we have the firepower to over-come quite a bit of misfortune in this one. Us turning over the ball doesn't help BSU much if they go 3-and-out afterward.

I guess we will wait and see. How bout just 0 turnovers for the ducks.

[NCDucks09]

Kinda ironic that we are arguing about turnovers and this gets posted today:
http://oregon.scout.com/2/892049.html

Great minds think a like.

[wheaton4prez]

I guess we will wait and see. How bout just 0 turnovers for the ducks.

Works for me.

[dd10snoop28]

It's not the turnovers that lose the game, it's the points off of turnovers that lose the game

Not really.

Even if the other team doesn't score, you take potential points from yourself and all the momentum. Turnovers are huge in college football

[wheaton4prez]

I think everyone is in agreement that turnovers are a big deal.

So are 50 yard TD plays, goal line stops, blocked field goals, sacks, excessive penalties, 3rd down conversions, high YPC rushing, etc.

I'm pretty sure that there is a high correlation between teams that have several long TD plays in a game and wins.

[dd10snoop28]

Boise State 35-13

I truly hope you mean this as a joke. How can any Duck fan see us only putting up 13 points? This is not USC's defense from last year. And we would have put more up than that against them with an experienced Masoli or Costa. Probably. But against BSU for sure.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. What do you say now?

[duckgrad99]

Funny that people were arguing about tunovers. They were huge in this game.