NIL, Transfer Portal, Southeastern Conference 'dominance'

[StevensTechU]

Kicking off some offseason musings. I'm going to pair together two topics that seem to be getting a lot of attention, and I suppose give my thoughts to my captive audience of the 30-40 people who read this board.

Much has been made of the Southeastern Conference not just failing to win a championship the last two years, but hasn't even had a team in the championship game. Is that a sign of the times? Short answer: No. The Southeastern Conference has risen to power in my estimation by two things. First, the partnership with ESPN allowed them to create a self-fulfilling perception of being the best conference in the country. Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri, Texas A&M - these are all traditionally dog s*** programs that we now think of as some kind of traditional powers, when the opposite is true. At the top of the league, most schools have had their moments, like Florida, LSU, Alabama, etc., but none of them have been top 10 teams decade after decade like an Ohio State. They're much more akin to USC, but generally not as good. Now, though, recruits and fans alike think these are the best out there, which is observable as we've seen west coast talent flock east at unprecedented levels.

The second item is that recruiting precision is better than it's ever been. When I was in high school in the early 2000s, Notre Dame coaches came to my high school to see Myles Wade (fringe 5* at the time for Central Catholic) and a kid from my high school go through drills. At the time, you watched grainy cut ups on a DVD or VHS to see how good a player was, then wasted a ton of time travelling to see a player like the aforementioned trip, and hoped for the best. With the advent of Hudl, summer camps, and 7v7 leagues that all get uploaded to YouTube, you can see more players in less time in more revealing settings than ever before. Not to mention the rise in full-time recruiting staffers, if you can afford them. You used to have to stick to your region and rely on unreliable information, which made even the best teams 60% players that deserved to be there and 40% players who should've been down a level. Because the SEC schools are flush with cash from huge stadiums that sell out and ESPN money flowing in, it's just not conceivable to me that we'll see a drop-off. At best (for us that hate the idea of ESPN/SEC running the sport), we'll see parity within that league so that there's many good teams but no great ones.

Now NIL and the transfer portal. Another talking point that I take issue with is the idea that NIL and the transfer portal are creating more parity. I simply couldn't disagree more. In the first wave of the transfer portal era, we saw select recruits moving up and down to fill very specific needs (think: Matt Hegarty from ND to Oregon). That helped those top teams go from 40% players who didn't belong there to maybe only 35%. The second transfer era has seen/saw the biggest schools go for the biggest names in the portal to try to fill needs or just simply uplevel their talent (think: Jordan Burch from S. Carolina to Oregon). At the same time, less successful programs were willing to take flyers on FCS players and found success, like Nebraska taking Oregon-native Samori Toure from Montana State (who now plays for the Chicago Bears) or practically half the 2024 Indiana team having transferred from James Madison. This allows those top teams to go from 35% to maybe 10-15% players who shouldn't be there, giving them unprecedented depth of top talent. And finally, what we saw a smidge of in last year's portal window and much more of in this year's window, is FCS and mid-major players aren't viewed as much as longshots, so top teams are getting in on the competition for them, too. In my view, that's going to mean top teams are going to have fewer and fewer weak spots and higher overall talent, and talent will flow to the same places the money does. The ultimate losers here is the FCS level, as those players don't make anything at that level and even making $50k at Oregon State will be too tempting for most to pass up. This has already been true of their coaching ranks for years, but now will extend to players.

So in summary of my long-winded thought- The Snaggletooth South Conference isn't going anywhere, because the programs have too much money and help by ESPN to not load up on talent in this new era of football. I think the top programs across the Big Ten and SEC (+ Miami and Clemson) will separate themselves from many in the Big 12 and ACC, while the latter will will pillage the mid-majors and FCS to create another level of separation, and mid-majors and FCS struggle to compete with the big guys evermore.

[pezsez1]

I think the top programs across the Big Ten and SEC (+ Miami and Clemson) will separate themselves from many in the Big 12 and ACC, while the latter will will pillage the mid-majors and FCS to create another level of separation, and mid-majors and FCS struggle to compete with the big guys evermore.

How long until the B1G/SEC (B3C?) have separated themselves so much that even the Big 12 and ACC essentially become feeder conferences?

I will say my one slight disagreement with your post is about parity. I do think NIL will create at least a small bit of parity on the very top of the pile. Just spitballing here, but thinking of teams that SHOULD be able to have stellar NIL programs with plenty of funding:

Oregon
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Alabama
Ohio State
SMU
Texas
Georgia
Miami
USC

I'm probably missing some and maybe overrating others... but I think as programs with elite backing lock in their NIL games we'll see that topmost layer of the sport expanding somewhat. It's not going to be a ton of teams, but at least it won't just be the 3-4 teams that had legit title chances in years past.

But yeah, that top level will continue to pull away from the field and the result will be less parity overall.

[GrandpaDuck]

...
I'm probably missing some and maybe overrating others... but I think as programs with elite backing lock in their NIL games we'll see that topmost layer of the sport expanding somewhat. It's not going to be a ton of teams, but at least it won't just be the 3-4 teams that had legit title chances in years past.

But yeah, that top level will continue to pull away from the field and the result will be less parity overall.

Notable missing from the top 10 NIL: Texas A & M (#1) and Notre Dame

[rsbgduck]

What if the SEC and BIG10 break away from the NCAA, ask the NFL to be their governing body and relabel themselves as the NFL minor league or NFL semi pro league, (I’m sure marketing could come up with something catchy) why not that’s what CFB is now.

[pezsez1]

What if the SEC and BIG10 break away from the NCAA, ask the NFL to be their governing body and relabel themselves as the NFL minor league or NFL semi pro league, (I’m sure marketing could come up with something catchy) why not that’s what CFB is now.

I don't think any kind of branding would be better than keeping this tier of football attached to colleges. I only really care about college football because I went to Oregon and I'm a Duck. I'd have a hard time really caring about semi-pro football that doesn't represent something personal. I think that's the big allure of college football. It's personal for so many people.

[dthomas=ddixon]

The larger playoff is the one thing that I think will lead to a perceived “fall off” by the SEC. Only because instead of automatically being in the BCS championship or a 4 team playoff, where they only had to win 1/2 games, they now have to actually prove it in a real playoff. More games against the other top teams obviously lowers the odds of them constantly playing for championships.