Defensive Stats

[whosyourwally]

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/lo ... regonducks

Hope you all find these numbers as fascinating as I do. To the naked eye, the D has seemed good, though inconsistent against better talent. As I’m reading through these team stats, I start off feeling like I’ve really undervalued the defense. Elite numbers against the pass, great in terms of total points given up, but then…..

The numbers go haywire. Absolutely awful on 4th down and in the red zone.

Fourth down conversions: 66.67-percent (12-of-16)
Big Ten rank: 16th
National rank: 112th

Red zone conversions: 100 percent (13-of-13)
Big Ten rank: 18th
National rank: 134th

Red zone TD conversions: 83.3 percent (10-of-13)
Big Ten rank: 18th
National rank: 132nd

Hard to wrap my head around how a team could be so good in standard down and distance, but the moment the stakes go up, they fully roll over. Does help justify the frustration that comes with watching such an almost really good team, tho.

Break but don’t bend? Can that be a thing? The anti-Alioitti philosophy?

[OregonFan4Life]

I think QB11 and Doug sort of addressed this and it comes down to LB play. A lot of those 4th down conversions are 4th and short where the opposing offense runs the ball and in those situations you need your LB’s to dissect the play, fill the gap, and hit the ball carrier and push him back. Against Penn State they had two 4th down conversions in which an Oregon LB hit them behind the line to gain but the ball carrier (I think it was Allar on one play and Allen on the other) simply pushed forward for a first down.

It’s been noted on here that our LB’s usually get pushed back. The reality is our LB’s are simply not good. I feel like most games this season the opposing LB’s looked better (I’d even argue the Oregon State LB’s looked better). It’s a combo of they are physically limited, but they also seem to play timid at times and almost wait for RB to make contact with them rather than attack them. I’m not sure what it is, coaching, confidence, athleticism, all of the above, but our LB’s are not only limiting the ceiling of the defense but the entire team.

And for whatever reason the coaches chose not to pursue LB’s in the portal which I believe was a huge mistake. Maybe NIL funds ran dry but that decision appears to have been a crucial mistake.

The reality is we have arguably the best secondary in the nation and a really good DLine (not sure if they’re elite due to lack of pass rush and Matayo regressing from last season), and it shows in how the defense plays for a large majority of the time. But when an opponent challenges our LB’s, particularly with running the ball, they have too much success. This also challenges our offense to be more efficient as they’re going to get less chances with opponents having success in the running game and they have been anything but consistent/efficient against good defenses. Really odd to see the Investment and effort into transforming the secondary into an elite unit, keeping the DLine high quality, but the LB group almost looked like an afterthought.

[UOducksTK1]

8 of the redzone touchdowns came in the 4th quarter. So we are, I believe, 2 of 4 in the first three quarters?

[OregonFan4Life]

8 of the redzone touchdowns came in the 4th quarter. So we are, I believe, 2 of 4 in the first three quarters?

Yeah the redzone stats I forgot to address I don’t care about as most came in garbage time, but the opponent 4th down success is certainly a concerning stat.

[GrandpaDuck]

8 of the redzone touchdowns came in the 4th quarter. So we are, I believe, 2 of 4 in the first three quarters?

Yeah the redzone stats I forgot to address I don’t care about as most came in garbage time, but the opponent 4th down success is certainly a concerning stat.

Those 4th down stats aren't good but I think part of it is that they don't sell-out on 4th down that much. It sucks when someone busts out a 40 yard run on you on 4th and 1. The fact that most of those conversions don't lead to points helps mitigate this weakness.

[buckmarkduck]

8 of the redzone touchdowns came in the 4th quarter. So we are, I believe, 2 of 4 in the first three quarters?

Yeah. I don’t think these stats show if it was starters or backups in either. Indiana got into the red zone thanks to Donte throwing them the ball there twice in a row also. If I had to guess, our starters have only been responsible for like 6-7 of those trips. Which is about 1 a game

[whosyourwally]

This season, it’s not as easy to write off 4th quarter scores. Both PSU and IU broke the UO defense in the 4th quarter. Those were meaningful 4th quarter touchdowns.

Yes, IU had a 9 play, 28 yd drive that ended in a FG off of a Moore INT in the 4th, but they also had a 12 play 75 yd TD drive that ate up 6:19 immediately after Oregon tied the game.

[rockthief]

The D needs to improve greatly to be elite regardless of who is playing in the game.

[rsbgduck]

QB11 podcast touched on this as OF4L stated and I agree with them also but more on the side of defensive play calling. Tosh is a great/elite recruiter and above average position coach but I have not been impressed with him as the DC. He has the best talent Oregon has ever seen and they consistently underperform. Yes we have had better LB but overall this D is fast and very talented with depth (more than most team) at every position but LB. Fans talk about OC’s being predictable but you rarely hear the same for a DC. Tosh is very predictable and non aggressive. I don’t care if he either moves on willingly, gets demoted or fired and Dan brings in an upgrade. I don’t see Tosh as a HC and with Dan putting a premium on commitment/loyalty I don’t see him firing Tosh and I don’t know how healthy a demoted DC would be in the locker room. I fear we are stuck with him until it consistently costs the team.

[UOducksTK1]

8 of the redzone touchdowns came in the 4th quarter. So we are, I believe, 2 of 4 in the first three quarters?

Yeah. I don’t think these stats show if it was starters or backups in either. Indiana got into the red zone thanks to Donte throwing them the ball there twice in a row also. If I had to guess, our starters have only been responsible for like 6-7 of those trips. Which is about 1 a game

Right. It would be nice if stats could be filtered to leave out stats when backups were in.

[OregonFan4Life]

I’m listening to QB11’s most recent podcast, and to my surprise he said Tosh is not a good defensive playcaller. He is a good DC Monday-Friday but his playcalling on Saturday leaves a lot of “meat on the bones” and whenever Tosh moves on Oregon will upgrade at defensive playcalling. QB11 rarely criticizes coaches so I was surprised to hear that.

But if this is true, how much of Tosh’s defensive playcalling leads to these issues? Also would Lanning consider taking over defensive playcalling? Wasn’t that his strength when he was the DC at Georgia?

[bdkipe]

I'm curious everyone...in our ONLY SINGLE LOSS this year, what side of the ball would you put it on?

Look at those 23 metrics. There are currently 136 teams in FBS. Top 25% = 34 teams

- we are Top 10 in 10 of them
- we are Top 30 in another 6

That means out of the 23 metrics we are ver much in the top 1/4 in 16 of them.

Not...too...shabby

[OrTDuck]

And for whatever reason the coaches chose not to pursue LB’s in the portal which I believe was a huge mistake. Maybe NIL funds ran dry but that decision appears to have been a crucial mistake.

I was curious too and I went back and took a look at the Top 100 portal guys for 2025 and, well, there doesn't appear to have been much to choose from.

There were a number of JACK/edge types:

• #9 David Bailey (Stanford to Texas Tech)
• #14 Damon Wilson (Georgia to Missouri)
• #32 Romeo Height (GT to Texas Tech)
• #34 Elo Medozie (Army to Georgia)
• #94 Clev Lubin (Coastal Carolina to Louisville)
• #99 Kendall Davis (Oklahoma State to Oklahoma)

Bailey, Wison, Height, and Lubin all essentially appear to be Tuioti-type players, Medozie and Davis in addition don't seem to be playing much.

There were two more traditional LB types listed:

• # 69 Nikhai Hill-Green (Colorado to Alabama)
• #87 Khmori House (Washington to NC)

Hill-Green has been Alabama's 4th leading tackler (I think he has been rotating in regularly at Alabama) and House who has been NC's leading tackler but appeared set to follow Steve Belichick to NC.

Could it have mostly been, not a lot out there better than what the staff felt it already had, except perhaps JACK/edge, where there appear to plenty of guys?

[UOducksTK1]

And for whatever reason the coaches chose not to pursue LB’s in the portal which I believe was a huge mistake. Maybe NIL funds ran dry but that decision appears to have been a crucial mistake.

I was curious too and I went back and took a look at the Top 100 portal guys for 2025 and, well, there doesn't appear to have been much to choose from.

There were a number of JACK/edge types:

• #9 David Bailey (Stanford to Texas Tech)
• #14 Damon Wilson (Georgia to Missouri)
• #32 Romeo Height (GT to Texas Tech)
• #34 Elo Medozie (Army to Georgia)
• #94 Clev Lubin (Coastal Carolina to Louisville)
• #99 Kendall Davis (Oklahoma State to Oklahoma)

Bailey, Wison, Height, and Lubin all essentially appear to be Tuioti-type players, Medozie and Davis in addition don't seem to be playing much.

There were two more traditional LB types listed:

• # 69 Nikhai Hill-Green (Colorado to Alabama)
• #87 Khmori House (Washington to NC)

Hill-Green has been Alabama's 4th leading tackler (I think he has been rotating in regularly at Alabama) and House who has been NC's leading tackler but appeared set to follow Steve Belichick to NC.

Could it have mostly been, not a lot out there better than what the staff felt it already had, except perhaps JACK/edge, where there appear to plenty of guys?

This could very well be the case, but our LB coach has said he doesn't believe in portal and he wants to develop guys from HS.

[OrTDuck]

I mean yes but really what position coach is going to say they aren't particularly concerned whether or not their high school recruits develop because they can always portal in guys?

Can you even (basically) say, "I'm not really that good at that part of my job, but I recognize I now have the chance to regularly be bailed out?" It sounds to me more like a bit of coachspeak? Ultimately, I tend to doubt he even has final say?

If there is a question whether some miscalculations may have been made, that's a bit more interesting. With who has seen the field at LB this year, and when, 2026 at LB sure looks like an open question.