Is Oregon An Elite Power Running Team?

[pezsez1]

So here's my big takeaway from the past three weeks.

Against Rutgers, we ran the ball better than I've seen us run the ball in years. Looked like we were playing a high school JV team.

Against Wisconsin & Iowa -- two teams with great rushing Ds in cold, sideways downpours in which everyone knew we'd be mostly running the ball -- we dominated the LOS and our RBs were absolutely unstoppable.

So, since the disjointed Indiana loss, we've notched three wins, once against a ranked opponent, each defined by a dominant power run game (with a QB capable of taking the top off of a defense) and a fairly stingy defense (at least through three quarters). And we have the horses to actually lean into this. Whittington, Hill and Davison are all studs who would start on most other teams.

Does anyone think we'll stick with this formula for the rest of the season? And do we do this well enough to ride this through the playoffs?

[bdkipe]

I can't wait to here STU's take on this. LOL

From a cursory glance of team rushing stats and analytics from the Transfer Portal era it seems that:

- Starting O-lines that are made up of transfer players are awful-to-poor at Zone-blocking schemes until very late in the season (the reason for that seems obvious)
- Starting O-lines that are made up of transfer players and use more basic man/combo concepts gel quicker and show quicker improvement

I think the other thing that fans need to take into account is that a running back's VISION has a lot to do with the effectiveness of the blocking too.

I can remember many of us on the board earlier last year bemoaning that fact that it seemed like James would hit the wrong hole damn near every time. He'd have a gaping lane that my grandma could still run through (and she's dead!) and he would just plow into the on the other side of the play.

[pezsez1]

I can't wait to here STU's take on this. LOL

Same here. I'm ready to be politely smacked down haha. But I can't ignore what my eyes have been seeing and am curious if others see the same thing.

[StevensTechU]

I've waded into the waters of commenting on coordinator decisions more in the last couple of weeks than I typically do. So here's my take of the offense/Stein.

Will Stein's offensive philosophy is "get the ball to your athletes in space." Sounds reasonable, right? Following that philosophy, we see a lot of downfield passing, wide receiver screens, and some jet sweeps, regardless of weather conditions as we've learned. It's not exclusively those things, there are interior running plays, just considerably less than other teams. That's his identity and that's fine.... until you find out that it's not working or that it means you're actively working against your strengths, and that's where my frustration comes in.

What I've seen from Stein is that he gets antsy whenever a 2nd down is more than 5 yards. If the Ducks have a moderately successful or unsuccessful run on first down, regardless of how they're running overall that day, the next two plays are passes without a doubt because Stein feels more comfortable taking multiple 'shots' than by making incremental progress via the run game. In a scenario where the Ducks face 2nd and 9, I know that Stein will dial up a pass, and if incomplete, then another. What he won't do is call a run that then goes 5 yards, set up 3rd and 4 where you can run or pass, and leave the defense guessing. If Oregon was struggling to generate a run game this season, I would understand this, but that's not the case. Oregon runs the ball incredibly effectively, especially on the left side behind Pregnon.

Example: Against Indiana, Oregon's running backs ran for 5.1 yards/carry. Anything over 4 is a good day and means you're getting a first down every 3 downs. Wet, rainy, windy conditions and a strong run game means you're going to lean heavily on the run, right? Wrong. Oregon gave running backs 20 carries in the game and Dante Moore threw the ball 34 times plus was sacked 6 times, meaning Oregon was running the ball 1/3 the time (20 attempts) and passing 2/3 (40 attempts). Not only did it mean Oregon wasn't moving the sticks or putting points on the board, but it also meant Moore was taking more shots and getting rattled.

We all know the adage that a team that falls behind has to pass the ball more. From what I can see, that's Stein when he's anything other than way ahead. He gets anxious as soon as a run goes for 0-2 yards and feels better taking shots in the pass game. He needs someone to show him that he will get more first downs and more points per drive if he would acknowledge that his running backs are averaging 6.8 ypc (Davison), 8.1 ypc (Whittington), 5.9 ypc (Limar), and 9.3 ypc (Hill).

Edit: The single most impactful 'wrinkle' Stein has made this season is introducing a fullback. I wish I had the data in front of me, but anectdotally, it seems that so many of our big running plays have come when we have a running back playing the role of fullback and he makes a block that springs the other RB for an explosion play. It reminds me of when we ran a lot of 2 RB sets when we had Royce, Tyner, Byron Marshall and Kani Benoit in 2014 or 2015 and had a lot of success.

[squintsdd]

To add on to you stu, I've noticed that if he'd run a simple screen to the running back on 2nd or 3rd and short, Oregon would have a lot more first downs. He also needs to use the toss more on short yardage plays, or a draw on 2nd or 3rd and long. So often it's been obvious that opposing defenses are going to stack the box, and changing to a toss at the line would be an easy 10 to 20 yards.

[dthomas=ddixon]

It’s a red flag when a coach only implements the more effective strategy when circumstances force him to.

And even then, Stein seems reluctant to just lean into the run game. We literally started the game with 3 passes and a 3 & out. It was the most Will Stein start to a game ever.

In addition, Moore isn’t playing that well and would benefit so much from a dominant run game that takes the pressure off him.

[spacefrog13x]

Reiterating a lot of what was said above:

It appears that since Indiana, we are running a lot more man/power concepts in the run instead of zone blocking, although we still do plenty of both. Davison and Hill Jr are fantastic behind man blocking.

We are sticking with the run game and allowing it to wear down teams.

Davison is basically a fullback with RB speed, so both him and Zach Grace are opening up holes for other RBs. When Davison is on the field he has to be accounted for as both a blocker and a runner, not a fun assignment for the LBs.

Injuries at TE and WR are forcing the hand a little bit.

Sticking with the run game and forcing heavy/8 man boxes is allowing more plays down field to be had (even if we dont connect on them). Even against Indiana we had free runners in the secondary, we just couldnt find them.

The Malik Benson show on the last drive happened because they were in man/cover 1. Its all they could do to stop our run game, which they were still afraid of with only 1:40ish left in the game. In better weather conditions we probably would have thrown it more once they started playing man coverage on our WRs.

Paraphrasing, but Lanning said during the post game that the three passes to start the game were dictated on the coverage they saw, but they probably should have started with something else because of the weather. DL is pushing WS to run the ball more, control the clock, and play complimentary football as start the home stretch of the season. We dont need to blow teams out by 50, we need slower paced games to keep our guys mentally and physically fresh for the playoffs.

A couple mental errors/mistakes cost us 14 points. Who knows how that would have snowballed if Iowas was down 14-17 points and forced to throw more often.

[OregonFan4Life]

Hythloday did a mid-season review podcast after the Wisconsin game where he basically said that he has been scouting better than Stein which doesn’t make sense cause Stein is way smarter, and I tend to agree as I feel like even me, who knows nothing, can see things that our offense isn’t taking advantage of. Maybe Will is focused on HC offers but something feels weird with his lack of adjustments.

On top of what Stu mentioned about Will almost exclusively throwing the ball on 2nd and anything longer than 5, he NEVER takes shots on 2nd and short. Whenever it is 2nd and 1, he runs the ball to get the first down, no aggressiveness or trying to catch the defense off guard.

I also noticed when the run game is going well he sticks with it a little too long until the defense sells out on the run and it’s a short gain when it would’ve been a perfect time for a 1st down PA pass.

And one final thing I’ve noticed is that most of the passes are short, to the sideline, or deep, he doesn’t seem to trust that 15-20 yard over the middle area, and opposing DC’s have caught on. Indiana kept having a deep cover 3 to take away any deep threat with their 4-3 and this was consistently leaving the middle 15-20 yards down the field wide open, but we kept seeing these short boundary throws and they mostly looked designed that way. I kept saying in the stadium if Dak ran a 15 yard crossing route it would be easy first downs (which he did once and it was an easy first down). I wonder if Will is afraid of this area cause it’s the most common area where interceptions are thrown.

I know that I know next to nothing about football, especially compared to someone like Stu, and nobody asked my opinion, but I do sort of agree with Hyth, Stein is better than what we’ve seen. My own personally theory is that Stein mostly enjoys writing up creative gadget plays and spends too much on that but on top of that he’s also a timid playcaller and that timidness is limiting Dante and this talented offense.


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