CFP Playoff Rankings

[StevensTechU]

Thinking we make this an ongoing thread.

Initial Rankings (11/4/25) (via CBS Sports)

1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. Indiana (9-0)
3. Texas A&M (8-0)
4. Alabama (7-1)
5. Georgia (7-1)
6. Ole Miss (8-1)
7. BYU (8-0)
8. Texas Tech (8-1)
9. Oregon (7-1)
10. Notre Dame (6-2)
11. Texas (7-2)
12. Oklahoma (7-2)
13. Utah (7-2)
14. Virginia (8-1) -- No. 11 seed
15. Louisville (7-1)
16. Vanderbilt (7-2)
17. Georgia Tech (8-1)
18. Miami (FL) (6-2)
19. USC (6-2)
20. Iowa (6-2)
21. Michigan (7-2)
22. Missouri (6-2)
23. Washington (6-2)
24. Pittsburgh (7-2)
25. Tennessee (6-3)

[StevensTechU]

I said in another thread that Notre Dame at #10 and Miami at #18 doesn't make sense to me. In a scenario where both win out, Miami might hold wins over 2 playoff teams - Notre Dame and South Florida - and ND has wins over none.

From that point and others, I have three big takeaways:
1. The committee was very influenced by recency bias (ie, what happened in the weekend before the rankings were released).
2. Brand matters.
3. The "eye test" has largely been ignored in favor of simply winning and losing.

Tennessee is the only 3-loss team in the field, and easily could have five losses as they needed OT to beat Mississippi State and edged a putrid Arkansas team with a 3-point victory. If they weren't Tennessee, they wouldn't be ranked. Because they're ranked (over 6-3 SMU, 6-3 Illinois, etc.), it bolsters the resume for teams like Georgia and Oklahoma who are over ranked.

When I say the eye test is largely ignored in favor of simply winning or losing, I look at things like putting Georgia #5 when they are four points better than a Florida team that fired their coach. Did they look like the #5 team in the land? Absolutely not. Miami throttled the same Florida team. So the only rationalization I can come up with is that surviving and who the teams are that you survived against is all that matters, not margin of victory or how well you controlled the game.

Texas is a great example of recency bias and eye test not mattering. They've looked like barnyard quality horse s*** most of the season but had a good game against Vandy this last weekend, and that seems to be what matters to the committee. It begs the question how much the committee will be willing to change rankings week to week versus anchoring to the first rankings.

[UOducksTK1]

Texas being that high is laughable.

[AutzenMember]

When I say the eye test is largely ignored in favor of simply winning or losing, I look at things like putting Georgia #5 when they are four points better than a Florida team that fired their coach. Did they look like the #5 team in the land? Absolutely not. Miami throttled the same Florida team. So the only rationalization I can come up with is that surviving and who the teams are that you survived against is all that matters, not margin of victory or how well you controlled the game.

I agree with you but then Oregon should be ranked higher. They are being discounted for "close" wins over Northwestern, a now defunct Penn State and Wisconsin in a monsoon. The committee used to weigh in on "Quality Losses"...but is now conveniently not discussed because Oregon has the best loss in the country while the SEC teams have suffered losses that look worse as the season goes along.

You need to add "region-cy" to "recency" to reflect the SEC bias. Of course, you did mention the bias when discussing lower SEC teams getting higher rankings and bolstering SOS. Such BS. Lots of SEC losses coming, so it should sort itself out...Can't wait until the SEC gets 8 more losses a year with 9 conference games scheduled.

[StevensTechU]

I don't think Oregon's margin of victory is hurting them at all. I think it's the lack of any ranked wins.

[SuperDuck]

BYU plays @ Texas Tech Saturday, so one of them should drop.

Oklahoma still has to play Alabama and Texas still has to play Georgia AND Texas A&M, so I don't see either of them in the mix for long. If they were to win one or more of those games, it may cause chaos in the SEC.

[dthomas=ddixon]

Crazy amount of disrespect for the B1G but I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that the ESPN conference is dominating the top of the ESPN CFP rankings.

[Greenblood]

Given BYU's big loss to TTU, I figure every top 12 team currently below BYU will move up one spot, putting the Ducks at #8 when the new rankings come out on Tuesday.

[StevensTechU]

With Iowa in the rearview and washington showing its ass, you really start to think the season is coming down to the USC game. Whoever wins will have a strong case for the CFP and the other will be left out in the cold. I like Oregon's ability to stop one-dimensional teams (Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers, Wisconsin) but when our defensive coaches (and linebackers and defensive line) are guessing is when we get burned. USC is excelling through the air and on the ground, so we'll see how they goes. We can definitely pick off Maiava so hopefully we generate some turnovers.

[bdkipe]

USC would have a hard time stopping a HS Team and our kids generally get absolutely jacked to play their buddies from SoCal.

I am not going "Iowa fan" level of confident but based simply on the numbers of how often Lanning has lost at Autzen I am confident simply based on law of probability.

I absolutely agree that USC has a terrifying offense that is in a groove.

That being said I think many on this board crap on our defense without taking a deep dive into the actual numbers. Without the officials or two busted coverages on that final Iowa drive last night we are talking about holding Iowa to under 200 yards. Rutgers was a high-flying offense and look what we did to them. Hell, Indiana is a good offense and Dante turned it over giving them 3 extra possessions to accumulate stats. Our D was gassed and they STILL held Indiana to well under their averages in every metric. Even Penn State was held in check. Northwestern only had yards with their starters in garbage time against our 3rd Team and walk-ons.

[Greenblood]

Ducks up to #7 in Nov. 18 release. Nothing surprising but good to see. USC at #15.

[bellsduck]

With a win over USC, who here thinks the committee moves Oregon over TTU or Ole Miss?

[Phalanx]

Finebaum whining about favoritism because Notre Dame is ranked ahead of Alabama will never get old.

[73duck]

> With a win over USC, who here thinks the committee moves Oregon over TTU or Ole Miss?

They would need to beat UW, too.

[greenyellow]

Oregon is up to #6 in the latest CFP Poll. That'd slot them against the likely ACC champ, which would potentially be SMU or Virginia.

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