The +/- stat

[Greenblood]

Ghost of Tajuan Porter ("Ghost") brought up this stat in relation to Simpkins in the Hawai'i game thread: "Simpkins is allergic to team ball. Don MacLean even commented on it. Easily the worst +/- on the team tonight. Oregon’s only run came with him on the bench, and Hawaii’s 15-0 run came right after he checked back in."

I first want to thank Ghost for bringing this up because it got me curious. I've certainly heard of the +/- stat before in relation to basketball, but I've never really paid close attention to it. Now that I've looked into it more, I might have more questions than answers.

Going back to the game v. the Rainbow Warriors, it turns out that the +/- for Simpkins (per https://goducks.com/documents/2025/11/5/2726913.PDF) was -2. Ok, not great, but especially in a close game, I'm not sure we can draw much of a conclusion from it. The worst +/- number was Kobzystyi's at -15 (in only about 6½ minutes!). But Bittle's was -10 (and I recall OFFL even criticizing Nate during the game, which was incredible because we all know that OFFL never criticizes any Duck about anything!). But Bittle also collected 14 rebounds along with his 12 points. Even beyond that, surely we would all agree that that we would normally want Bittle in a game 75-80% of the time or so.

Since that game Simpkins has been -1, +13, and +15, which would seem to suggest he's really getting more into the flow of things. Bittle's following two games was -2 and +24(!). Perhaps the most consistent on that stat is Lindsay, who was +9, +13, and +14, in his first three games (I can't find the +/- for the Beaver game). Bottom line: I'm just not sure how much can be drawn from the +/- number in terms of an individual player's effectiveness for the team. Would love to hear from much greater basketball minds than mine on this issue.

[OregonFan4Life]

I’d like to clarify my criticism of Bittle was for his lack of effort that game, he just seemed like he thought it was a scrimmage. I know he’s the best player on the team (if not him, Shelstad) and since that game his effort has been great. But I do feel his effort was not great against the Rainbows.

As for the +/-, it’s telling when someone is consistently + or -, but oftentimes you can’t gather much from one game. Some random bench player on the opponent could have a Steph Curry game and hit 5 threes in a row making the bench players have a poor +/- but it doesn’t actually reflect how they performed on the court, someone on the opposing team just had the shooting night of his life. If someone is consistently having a low - or +, then you can gather something from that, but for the most part, it’s not going to tell as much as other key stats.

Overall I’ve really liked Simpkins so far. He’s been a reliable shooter and his shot selection has been really good this year, he’s a solid set 3 point shooter with the ability to drive. He’s not going to make off the dribble 3’s like Shelstad but he can shoot off the pass when open and consistently make it. He’s to me a good replacement for Barthelemy, can shoot to take off some pressure from Shelstad, probably isn’t quite as good of a shooter, but he’s more able to penetrate and plays better perimeter defenses than Barthelemy.


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[Ghost of Tajuan Porter]

Not sure why you keep calling me out. Kinda weird man. I don’t believe that +/- from goducks at all for that game, but I don’t care enough to go back through the game again. I also didn’t suggest +/- is an indication of anything beyond what I posted.

There are a million guys like Simpkins out there. He’s clearly here to prove something. That’s great in theory… I’m fine with guys with a chip on their shoulder. But he isn’t good enough. This team will not achieve any kind of success with Simpkins leading them in field goals attempted. He just isn’t that guy. He’s been ALRIGHT against mid-majors, trying to get a shot up every time he touches the ball, but that won’t work in conference play against good teams.

I’m not gonna post about him anymore because it’s clearly riling people up, but I’m so sick of the 23 year old less-than mercenary transfers at Oregon that are just looking to put up shots.

Edit: I also didn’t like Barthelemy. I think Barthelemy is probably an optimistic projection for Simpkins, but I don’t want either of them. One-dimension, inefficient chuckers are a dime a dozen. I don’t want them at Oregon. You shouldn’t either.

[Greenblood]

Thanks. More than anything, I'm seeing if there is a way to quantify the doubts about someone such as Simpkins (which I also have, just not to the level of Ghost), since the +/- stat, at least so far, clearly doesn't seem to be the way. Maybe there isn't a way.

[whosyourwally]

I imagine +\- minutes mean more over a period of time than from a single game.

RE: Simpkins - One can only hope that 23yo’s aren’t finished products. We’ve seen a few geriatric 2 guards turn the corner mid/late season on Altman-led teams in recent years. If Simpkins is coachable, he’ll have a chance to learn from the best.


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