GrantDuck wrote: Sun Oct 05, 2025 11:21 pm
I have a bad feeling about this one. Talk me off the ledge fellow homers!
I’m all over the place with this one. Part of me thinks we have better athletes so ducks should win, but part of me worries about our coordinators and their habitual playcalling that Indiana could take advantage of. I worry that Tosh will over blitz leaving the quick passing game open most of the game allowing them to consistently convert 3rd downs and that Stein won’t let the passing offense let loose.
After the initial spread for this game had the Ducks about 14-point favorites, it's now dropped to the Ducks being about 8-point favorites. I really thought 14 was a bit much, so this seems better to me. It also should lessen any extra "disrespect" motivation that the Hoosiers might have.
I could very easily see this being a one score game. Indiana is a good team. In fact if we were on the road, I would be just as nervous about them as the Penn State game.
I'll be honest, the Indiana - Illinois and PSU-UCLA games have shook my previous sky high confidence which is of course totally meaningless as long as it hasn't gotten into the minds of the players too. At least we have the Indiana - Illinois film to know what absolutely doesn't work on defense against IU and the Iowa game to see what does.
GrandpaDuck wrote: Mon Oct 06, 2025 3:00 pm
I'll be honest, the Indiana - Illinois and PSU-UCLA games have shook my previous sky high confidence which is of course totally meaningless as long as it hasn't gotten into the minds of the players too. At least we have the Indiana - Illinois film to know what absolutely doesn't work on defense against IU and the Iowa game to see what does.
Iowa is far less athletic than the UO D. And as seen v PSU, our D is physical. And Illinois, was always overrated. If Dan, unlike the bully IU coach, had wanted to score 60 last year we could have also. Dan rarely goes for the big score embarrassment of an opponent. NW he pulled everyone very early, or we win that game 45-0 or 52-0.
I feel the opposite about the UCLA/PSU game. Some folks say it diminishes Oregon's win, but I just think it's even more of a testament about Oregon's dominance. That Oregon/PSU game was incredibly physical with both teams beating the crap out of each other. Dan Lanning said immediately after the game that rest during this bye would be more important than usual. PSU didn't have that luxury, and lost a couple players to injury, and had to travel across the country. We broke that team, and Franklin pretty much admitted that after the UCLA game.
pezsez1 wrote: Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:02 pm
I feel the opposite about the UCLA/PSU game. Some folks say it diminishes Oregon's win, but I just think it's even more of a testament about Oregon's dominance. That Oregon/PSU game was incredibly physical with both teams beating the crap out of each other. Dan Lanning said immediately after the game that rest during this bye would be more important than usual. PSU didn't have that luxury, and lost a couple players to injury, and had to travel across the country. We broke that team, and Franklin pretty much admitted that after the UCLA game.
We will handle Indiana just fine.
Pretty much my thoughts exactly. PSU clearly went all in on that game and didn’t have a plan for what would happen if they lost. Especially in the fashion they did.
Duck07 wrote: Tue Oct 07, 2025 9:49 am
Filmmaker James Ivory will be the guest picker.
Curious selection if true. The 97 year old film maker grew up in KFalls, and went to Oregon (Fine Arts Degree) before USC (Film School), but I can't find anything on him being a sports fan at all. In fact, he was anti-sports growing up. Doesn't sound like someone that can provide much insight picking winners on a national stage.
Better selections: Kenjon Barner, Ty Burrell, Cole Hocker, NEIL EFFING EVERETT or PAYTON EFFING PRITCHARD!!!
GrantDuck wrote: Sun Oct 05, 2025 11:21 pm
I have a bad feeling about this one. Talk me off the ledge fellow homers!
Since the 4-8 Helfrich year, I believe Oregon has gone 50-3 at Autzen.
It's three losses were:
2017 (9-4 WSU): first year under Taggart, Herbert hurt and Oregon must turn to true freshman Braxton Burmeister. BB actually looks ok in the first half and Oregon only trails 10-13. Burmeister throws 2 picks, fumbles once, and is sacked twice in the second half and Oregon is outscored 20-0
2018 (9-4 Stanford): first year under Cristobal, Oregon running out the clock with a 3 point lead with 0:51 seconds left, on 2nd and 3 at the Stanford 43, Verdell fumbles. Stanford drives 46 yards and kicks a FG to tie and wins in OT
2022 (11-2 Washington): first year under Lanning. Oregon up 3, goes on a 20 play, 91 yard, 7 minute drive to the UW 10. Nix gets hit on the knee on a 3rd down draw and gets knocked out. UW scores. With TT in, Lanning goes for it on 4th and 1 from their own 34 with 1:26 remaining and loses a yard. UW gets a FG, Nix limps back in and gets 37 yards in the final 0:51 but stalls at the UW 38
Oregon is tough to beat at Autzen, 50 wins and 3 losses, all losses to decent or better teams with a coach in his 1st year at Oregon, one with a hurt QB turning to a true freshman, one getting Mario-ed, and one with an odd finish after Nix gets his knee banged.
The "homer" call and history should say Oregon doesn't lose this game unless something freaky happens.
(Not exactly making a pick on the game here, but 50-3 with the details on the 3 I think makes a case)