Blazers

[Duck07]

This isn't a pass most Centers in the league can make.

https://youtube.com/shorts/OHmoVIgyp-A? ... MqE3yclZ51

[StevensTechU]

So after watching film what specifically does everyone not like about the guy? Or is it that your preconceived notions that were based upon some "analysts" mock draft rankings the primary reason? Or is it because Cronin didn't make a mythical trade that you would have?

I've definitely tilted my view since the draft now that I've watched his Combine highlights. I have no context for Combine highlights and how indicative they are for future success, so I can't say whether it's giving me Rose City-colored glasses or if he's Asian Jokic.

The problem, still, is that you took him at #16 when he was probably going to slide further. The Blazers moved back 4 spots and got a first rounder and two second rounders for it. If they could have taken Yang at #25, they left a lot on the table by surprising everybody with the early pick.

Obviously, if he turns into a star, nobody will complain, and if he's a flop, people will be pissed. In the initial analysis, the problem is simply you took him too early and could've gotten more value.

[pezsez1]

I've watched a lot more video last night and this morning and I'm excited to see him play. As others have said, I'm still incredibly dubious about Cronin's claims that he was likely to be picked soon after 16 and we couldn't have traded back further, collected more assets, and STILL made this pick. Feels like a missed opportunity for a team that's still in dire need of assets for a badly needed blockbuster trade. (Or even just incentives to help move Grant or Ayton.)

That said, I love his offensive skillset. He has a beautiful shot from inside the arc and could see him becoming a dependable three-point shooter. (Not sure if volume 3s are as prolific in China as they are here.) Analysts say he's a much bigger question mark on the defensive end, but on a defensive-minded squad such as ours I'd have to think his liabilities would be somewhat mitigated.

Hopefully we trade Ayton and clear the runway for Clingan with Yang getting plenty of minutes to develop.

[Duck07]

So after watching film what specifically does everyone not like about the guy? Or is it that your preconceived notions that were based upon some "analysts" mock draft rankings the primary reason? Or is it because Cronin didn't make a mythical trade that you would have?

I've definitely tilted my view since the draft now that I've watched his Combine highlights. I have no context for Combine highlights and how indicative they are for future success, so I can't say whether it's giving me Rose City-colored glasses or if he's Asian Jokic.

The problem, still, is that you took him at #16 when he was probably going to slide further. The Blazers moved back 4 spots and got a first rounder and two second rounders for it. If they could have taken Yang at #25, they left a lot on the table by surprising everybody with the early pick.

Obviously, if he turns into a star, nobody will complain, and if he's a flop, people will be pissed. In the initial analysis, the problem is simply you took him too early and could've gotten more value.

My only problem with the trade-back and draft him later approach is how it only takes 1 team to draft the player for them to be gone so if you trust your scouting, that's the more important thing than believing what draft analysts think. Killian Hayes went #7 to Detroit in 2020 as a PG, Pritchard went 26th. One of them is in the G-League now even though the consensus was Hayes was a lottery pick and Pritchard would be a 2nd rounder.

I don't know if he's going to be a star, but you also don't see 19 year olds that are that big and fluid with the ball in their hands down low and he looks like he has a high basketball IQ when he's on the court. Him turning into Clingan's backup in 2 years who can get you points inside as part of the 2nd unit and rebound seems attainable and fills a team need.

[pezsez1]

Him turning into Clingan's backup in 2 years who can get you points inside as part of the 2nd unit and rebound seems attainable and fills a team need.

Great point. And if you look ahead to the future of the Western Conference, you'll likely see the top contending teams consistently including San Antonio and OKC -- both featuring two huge, highly skilled bigs -- and other contending teams will need dudes who can match up.

I feel the same way about Scoot though, regarding his value. Sucks that we didn't select Amen Thompson with the #3 pick, but if Scoot can turn into just a solid starter or a really good sixth man then he'll still have tremendous value going forward. He doesn't need to be an All-Star. (But we'd still need to find that level of production at a different position.)

[Phalanx]

So after watching film what specifically does everyone not like about the guy? Or is it that your preconceived notions that were based upon some "analysts" mock draft rankings the primary reason? Or is it because Cronin didn't make a mythical trade that you would have?

They are not mythical trades; a couple of teams traded later in the first round and got nice value. New Orleans traded 13 and got 23 and a future first likely to be a lot better than the one the Blazers got. Washington traded pick 18 and got 21 along with two future 2nds. Since we all posted in angst last night, there have been rumors surfacing that other teams were looking at Yang later in the first round, so maybe Cronin didn't want to risk it, but I think he would have been there at 21. He did get some extra picks, including what is likely to be a late first-rounder, so at least he did something.

My main problem is that when you pick at or near the top 10 in a strong draft, there is a certain level of expectation that the guy will immediately add something to the rotation. We spent yesterday identifying obvious needs like a good-shooting wing. Getting a project center on a team with four other centers doesn't seem like it will help the Blazers make the playoffs this season. Maybe he will end up better for the Blazers than Coward would have been, but the chances are that Coward was the better pick, and frankly, Orlando's late-round pick is not likely to help much either. This team has not had great luck with late-round picks. Murray, Swanigan..the best I can think of is Simons, and he has always been a mixed bag.

[Duck07]

They are not mythical trades; a couple of teams traded later in the first round and got nice value. New Orleans traded 13 and got 23 and a future first likely to be a lot better than the one the Blazers got. Washington traded pick 18 and got 21 along with two future 2nds. Since we all posted in angst last night, there have been rumors surfacing that other teams were looking at Yang later in the first round, so maybe Cronin didn't want to risk it, but I think he would have been there at 21. He did get some extra picks, including what is likely to be a late first-rounder, so at least he did something.

My main problem is that when you pick at or near the top 10 in a strong draft, there is a certain level of expectation that the guy will immediately add something to the rotation. We spent yesterday identifying obvious needs like a good-shooting wing. Getting a project center on a team with four other centers doesn't seem like it will help the Blazers make the playoffs this season. Maybe he will end up better for the Blazers than Coward would have been, but the chances are that Coward was the better pick, and frankly, Orlando's late-round pick is not likely to help much either. This team has not had great luck with late-round picks. Murray, Swanigan..the best I can think of is Simons, and he has always been a mixed bag.

They are in fact mythical trades for the Blazers since you cannot prove a counter-factual which is that those trades happening don't prove that those were offers available for Portland or that those trades don't happen without the Blazers making a trade. So moving on from whether Joe Cronin could have extracted a nickel's more worth of value from the trade or not...

Which player was available who was going to immediately add something to the rotation when the rotation looks like this:
Guard 96 minutes: Jrue/Shae/Scoot
Forward 96 minutes: Deni/Toumani/Jerami
Center 48 minutes: Deandre/Donovan

Meanwhile when you look at the season after next and the players under contract, there's only Donovan at Center.

What Cronin did was finally choose a path. We'll try to compete for the play-in with this squad but its clear now that the goal is to let young players have a chance to shine with a veteran in each group and they either sink or swim. In which case you either enter that 27-29 window with extra draft picks with a competitive and still youthful roster to tinker around the edges or make a serious move for a Star to complete the equation.

[dd10snoop28]

This guy should've been a top 5 pick. He's gushing with talent.

And unlike most of the former talented 7+foot busts of the past, he is aggressive, physical, and coordinated.

I suspect we will have to trade Clingan in about 2-3 seasons.

[pezsez1]

Which player was available who was going to immediately add something to the rotation when the rotation looks like this:
Guard 96 minutes: Jrue/Shae/Scoot
Forward 96 minutes: Deni/Toumani/Jerami
Center 48 minutes: Deandre/Donovan

This is an extremely logical take.

And to add to this, I've been thinking that taking a center (and not one of the talented young wings at #11) means Cronin doesn't have much confidence in being able to move Jerami Grant. So that Deni/Toumani/Grant rotation is probably set for the next few years.

Ayton has far more value, which says a lot about how badly Grant fell off last season. I fully expect Ayton to be moved before the season starts. Having him around for a playoff push would definitely be nice, but if Cronin cares at all about the team's future then Ayton should be moved for assets (and hopefully at least a shooter).

Also, the more I watch of Yang Hansen, the more excited I am to see him in a Blazers uniform. This really is Cronin's live-or-die moment.

[Boom]

So after watching film what specifically does everyone not like about the guy? Or is it that your preconceived notions that were based upon some "analysts" mock draft rankings the primary reason? Or is it because Cronin didn't make a mythical trade that you would have?

Yang has below average athleticism for the position. They drafted Clingan last year. Both players are the big lumbering types and do not have positional flexibility.

[Boom]

So after watching film what specifically does everyone not like about the guy? Or is it that your preconceived notions that were based upon some "analysts" mock draft rankings the primary reason? Or is it because Cronin didn't make a mythical trade that you would have?

Yang has below average athleticism for the position. They drafted Clingan last year. Both players are the big lumbering types and do not have positional flexibility.

Opposing guards are going to blow by Yang in the pick and roll.

[Boom]

NBA teams don't play big lumbering centers 48 minute per game. Hartenstein played about 18 minutes and didn't finish games in the finals. OKC and Pacers both had 5/6 guards in their rotation.

Current Blazer guard depth is a concern.

[Phalanx]

Which player was available who was going to immediately add something to the rotation when the rotation looks like this:
Guard 96 minutes: Jrue/Shae/Scoot
Forward 96 minutes: Deni/Toumani/Jerami
Center 48 minutes: Deandre/Donovan

Meanwhile when you look at the season after next and the players under contract, there's only Donovan at Center.

Doing overseas research on a hidden gem only really pays off if it leads to getting a steal in the draft. The higher he is drafted, the higher he is now expected to perform. Sengun went at 16 only a few years ago, that's not a nothing pick just because it has traditionally been so for the dumb blazers who pick guys like Luke Babbitt or trade for one year of Robert Covington. At 16 you also have to pay more for the years of the rookie deal. It adds up.

Your rotation minutes analysis is just plain wrong. Nobody plays 32 minutes for 82 games. Not one guy did that last season - Camara was the closest, but he missed 4 games. Jrue and Grant won't get anywhere near that level of playing time, and hopefully Scoot won't either unless he improves by leaps and bounds. Last season, Thybulle averaged 21 minutes per game for the 15 games that he played. That's more mpg than Obi Toppin got for the Pacers, although Toppin played in more games. Kris Murray averaged 15 mpg over 69 games. That qualifies as a regular rotation player, and that is really sad, because he is terrible. Rupert, who is also terrible, got 9 minutes over 52 games. So between those three guys there is room for a better player to come in and play 25 minutes per game at least. If they had drafted a wing at 11, or even at 16, they could dump both Murray and Rupert at a savings of over $5.35 million and more than cover the new draftee's salary. Instead, both of those guys look like they are still going to be on the team, and we are still likely to see Murray in the regular rotation. That sucks, but it's the price you pay for taking the project center with your first round pick. I think it's a good bet that Coward would have contributed more this year than Yang will. In the future, who knows.

[Duck07]

So after watching film what specifically does everyone not like about the guy? Or is it that your preconceived notions that were based upon some "analysts" mock draft rankings the primary reason? Or is it because Cronin didn't make a mythical trade that you would have?

Yang has below average athleticism for the position. They drafted Clingan last year. Both players are the big lumbering types and do not have positional flexibility.

Opposing guards are going to blow by Yang in the pick and roll.

While he's not as mobile as Bam, Yang has better athleticism than Clingan as well as Maluach the center from Duke who went earlier. In many ways, the team knowing they'll play the Centers on drop coverage against PNR's helps the Guards/Wings out which is also why we've changed the dynamic of our backcourt to make those drives more difficult. The team also already has a small-ball lineup so I don't see this an issue for this team relative to other areas they need to improve.

[Duck07]

Your rotation minutes analysis is just plain wrong. Nobody plays 32 minutes for 82 games. Not one guy did that last season - Camara was the closest, but he missed 4 games. Jrue and Grant won't get anywhere near that level of playing time, and hopefully Scoot won't either unless he improves by leaps and bounds. Last season, Thybulle averaged 21 minutes per game for the 15 games that he played. That's more mpg than Obi Toppin got for the Pacers, although Toppin played in more games. Kris Murray averaged 15 mpg over 69 games. That qualifies as a regular rotation player, and that is really sad, because he is terrible. Rupert, who is also terrible, got 9 minutes over 52 games. So between those three guys there is room for a better player to come in and play 25 minutes per game at least. If they had drafted a wing at 11, or even at 16, they could dump both Murray and Rupert at a savings of over $5.35 million and more than cover the new draftee's salary. Instead, both of those guys look like they are still going to be on the team, and we are still likely to see Murray in the regular rotation. That sucks, but it's the price you pay for taking the project center with your first round pick. I think it's a good bet that Coward would have contributed more this year than Yang will. In the future, who knows.

As you even mentioned, #9 in the rotation is now Tisse since he's healthy and #10 in the rotation is RW3.

Suddenly Cedric Coward is now starting the early part of the season for the...Remix (same as Yang likely).

Where I think everything changes is once you start factoring in trading Ayton and what the team needs are: shooting. Since I doubt we'd see a straight 1:1 player swap, we're likely bring in 2 or more players who wouldn't be Centers, because if they were more valuable than Ayton they wouldn't be getting traded for him. So remove Ayton from that lineup and now you have all the minutes for DC/RW/YH while hopefully getting a younger shooter who fits in the G/F rotation and a likely salary ballast who hopefully still has some game left to provide.